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| The door is not a jar. |
I was rather shocked that these diplomatic experts on Sunday's talks had no real idea what it would take to de-fuse the ticking bomb of Russia's massing of forces outside the Ukraine. So, as far as i can tell, none of these simple but effective notions were presented:
0) Counter-proposal to Russia's request to retreat to pre-1989 NATO: Ukraine wants its nukes back! Perfectly reasonable request, it yielded them voluntarily (under pressure from the West) as part of a comprehensive security guarantee for the Ukraine (to which Russia also agreed). Since that guarantee is obviously no longer operable, the West will consider Russia's request for a return to never when they comply with this request from the Volensky government (note: not a replacement puppet one)
1) Withdrawal of forces; creation of demilitarized buffer zone. I suggest 150 km, but that also applies to Russian and Belarussian forces at the Ukrainian border. Russia would insist on some right to mess with "autonomous" Donbas if Ukraine violates the demilitarized zone there, but otherwise commit to respect Ukraine's territorial sovereignty . Except for....
2) Conference on the Permanent Status of Crimea - The ultimate objective would be to ratify the fait accompli, nothing more. Russia took it in 2014, in a flash, Then they announced a referendum on annexing it, and then announced its overwhelming success and subsequent incorporation in Mother Russia. Russia has a fairly legitimate claim to ownership, which passed to the Ukraine during the Soviet period for obscure reasons. The Conference would include Ukraine, the US, Europe, and Turkey, and would address claims against Russia related to the invasion and occupation, but Russia would have legal status. It would solve one of the most difficult problems of all in de-escalation.
3) Germany will commit to 'accelerating its review of NordStream2' when Russia completes 1) and commits to joining 2). Wink, wink. A carrot, as opposed to a stick.
There would not be any concession on those crazy Russian proposals, yet we are talking about something real, and particularly for eliminating any reason to claim a military threat to Russia proper (or its satellite, Belarus).
President Biden has insisted he was not advised how the Afghan military and government control were in no way prepared for the period after the US withdrawal. If he reads here, then he will know the way to find the Holy Off-Ramp! (Batman...)
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1 comment:
These suggestions didn't seem to go any further than this blog. They were a good exercise in critical strategy. Now pretty much moot--see Cold War II.
What I should have mentioned--I did elsewhere--was that there was a good possibility that the key oligarchs in the pipeline project had already passed on their shares to others, so the cost of cancelling it would have been perceived as not important.
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