20/20 Vision: Democratic Scenarios

In the interests of my Clear Vision initiative (20/20), here are views of how the Democratic primaries could go. I would argue that the enunciation of these different sequences of results is clear and factual, though the weights on them are totally subjective. That being said, I'm trying to be as objective as possible here.


1) The Standard Scenario (40%)-
IA and NH look like the equivalent of four-way ties (with Klobuchar in the 'coveted #5 spot'), and SC an easy Biden win (with a battle for the 'coveted #2 spot'). None of those states have meaningful numbers of delegates, except as regards whether any candidates other than the leaders can score any of them.

So, the focus moves instead to CA to provide direction on the national sentiment, and for CA, the caucuses in Nevada (third round of voting) will provide a preview. Secondarily, on Super Tuesday, it will be on TX to see whether that state will truly be a difference-maker in the general election--turnout is the question there. The winner in CA is likely to emerge from Super Tuesday as the delegate leader and becomes a clear favorite to take the nomination. To me, that means Biden, unless Warren and Sanders can come to agreement on who will stop him before then.

Right now, with Bernie's resurgence, that doesn't seem likely. I have seen those who have suggested Warren may not make it to Super Tuesday; I think that's impossible. Instead, the current trend has dampened expectations enough that she can take a favorable spin from second in either IA or NH, which I think is highly doable.

With that configuration of forces, Biden takes a substantial lead, though winning less than half the total delegates awarded. The duration of the candidacies of Klobuchar, and eventually Buttigieg, will be critical in determining the degree of dominance Biden has in moderate delegates. If they stay in, it could still make it tough for Joe to go the distance.

Outcomes -- Biden 80%; Sanders 10%; Warren 5%; Klobuchar/Buttigieg/Field 5%.

2/3) Biden Explosion/Implosion (10% each)-
In the first case, he rises to substantial victory in Iowa and gets a draw or better in NH. That done, it becomes a question of the VP nominee, little more. The events that could lead this might include prolonged national security threat, or even more outrageous behavior coming out with regard to Trump in upcoming weeks. But more likely the next crisis comes later. (see below)
In the second case, that of Biden Implosion coming out of whatever source (health/scandal/dementia), it becomes a free-for-all, with either Sanders/Warren or any of the remaining moderate wannabe's, even in the Field, getting a chance to seize the momentum at a phase that is suddenly critical. That could lead to indecision, but that's a different scenario.
Outcomes -- Biden 50% (the first part); Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg 15% each; Klobuchar/Field 5%.

4) Takeover by the Progressive Wing (20%)-
It's about turnout and who can generate it.  The key indicator would be a 1-2 quinella of Sanders and Warren in IA and/or NH.   It would then need to be demonstrated again in NV, and accompanied by fresh flows of donation money that could convince a primary electorate hungry for change that it is, actually, possible in 2020.  If these two dominate in the delegate contest, at some point they will come to agreement as to who has won.  In that scenario, I think Warren's chances may be just as good as Bernie's, as the name "George McGovern" will appear for the first time in decades and moderates panic at the thought of Bernie as the flagbearer.  There could also be a Stop Bernie (or Stop Liz, as applicable) movement with an outside chance for a late comeback, which would be disastrous for the party's chances in the general election, in spite of the intention (think Humphrey in '68).
Outcomes - Warren/Sanders 40% each; Biden 10%;  Klobuchar/Buttigieg/Field 10%. 

5) A Surprise Outcome (15%)-
In times of great stress such as these, surprising things can happen in our electoral politics. Think Wendell Wilkie, 1940, or FDR's decision to run for an unprecedented third term that year (and the US had not even declared into WWII at that point, though it had started).  So that 15% estimate is a lot higher than what would be the norm. A winning surge by Buttigieg or Klobuchar would qualify, or someone from the Field (Bloomberg; Booker; Yang!) makes a move from next-to-nowhere all the way to the nomination itself.  Booker, thy name is The Black Swan!  One indicator could be something particularly crazy and stress-inducing from Drumpf, but it could also be some kind of groundswell of love that sweeps the nation.  (Think: unexpected Oprah endorsement)
Outcomes:  Buttigieg 35%; Klobuchar 30%; Field 35%.  

No Winner--Brokered Convention (5%)
This is always a low-probability outcome, and I think it is so this year as well.  The probability is higher in 2020 for the Democratic party, because of its rules that will drive dispersion, or even close division, of delegates in specific states.  Right now, public support in polls is similarly evenly divided. Still, you have to think this situation will not be stable at all. The media is already trying to force a Biden vs. Bernie showdown, and there have been no votes cast.  Or, whatever becomes the trend becomes inevitable, in some minds.
If it does happen, though, the chances of Field rise dramatically.  Sherrod Brown, since he won't actually have to run for it?   Bloomberg throws his wallet behind a candidate for the VP slot?   The other thing to note is that most or all delegates will be pledged to a specific candidate still in the race for the first ballot, but after that, they will migrate at will, and superdelegates (elected officials) will now get to vote. 
More likely, though, it will be more like the last one that was contested going into the convention, when Reagan challenged Ford in 1976--the obstacle course will have narrowed to two or three, with one near the finish line and willing to compromise for the lift over that final wall.  First ballot victory.
Outcomes - Biden 30%; Sanders 30%; Field 30%; Warren/Buttigieg/Klobuchar 10%. 

Betting the Come
Overall Outcomes:
               Biden 45.5%
               Sanders 16.5%
               Warren 13.17%
               Buttigieg 9.75%
               Field 8.58%
               Klobuchar 6.5%

The high chances for Field do help explain why Bloomberg and Deval might bother to enter so late.

I should bid accordingly on predicit.org.  Though the markets there are understating Warren's chances by this calculation, still I am overweighted on outcomes favorable to her as thing stand now.  As for Bernie, I'm betting against it, which puts me somewhat at risk, and in a sliding position, at present.