I am a moderately serious fan of the English Premier League (the EPL--I'm a Chelsea fan, for the last 20 years or so), and what I noticed yesterday was a similarity between the competitive structure of the EPL Table (the table of standings points and goal differential) and that currently seen for the Democratic nomination for President. (for reference, see here for the values on realclearpolitics.com, and here for the EPL).
One thing the two have in common is a similar number of competitors. The top English football league has 20 teams in it; there are somewhere between 18 and 22 serious declared Democratic candidates (depending on your definitions of 'serious' and 'declared').
Each has a close competition between first and second (Manchester City and Liverpool, in one case; Bernie and Biden, in the other). Then there's a fairly large gap to the third- through sixth-place entries (tho' it changes day to day, it's Harris/Buttigieg/Warren/O'Rourke on the political side; and Tottenham/Chelsea/Arsenal/Man U., sporting-wise). Then another large gap to a couple more....and then the rest, 9-20. Bottom three or so are due for imminent relegation, either to the "Championship" (English AAA league), or wherever the funk those candidates like Warren Messam and Marianne Williamson come from.
One big difference: the EPL season has two more dates--two more games only in the next two weekends Then it will be over. Would that something similar were true with the Presidential contest, and that we could wrap up the preliminaries and go on to the next event, but no.
What can we learn from this analogy? Well, the key breaks in the soccer competition are who finishes first (of course), then the break between fourth and fifth (the qualification dividing line for the continent-level Champions League competition for the next season, meaning Muchos Euros at stake), then another, between sixth and seventh, I think (qualification for the not-as-prestigious Europa League--I think this will one day go away, as interest flags). The English soccer league gets overrpresented in the European competitions because of its strong historical performance, just as the US political parties' delegate calculation process does.
Right now, Chelsea is looking good for the fourth spot, while Manchester City will win the title if it wins both its remaining games. Translate that to the Presidential nomination race, and you could say that the nomination is Biden's to lose (though he is certainly capable of doing so), while that battle for fourth may determine who goes on, beyond New Hampshire to South Carolina, and who does not.
Also, though, note again that division between second and third, so evident between Liverpool's standings and the third-place Spurs': You could check the records, but it has been a very long time since someone who did not finish first or second in New Hampshire's primary won the nomination of his/her party.
I throw this one out onto the floor to see if it sticks there. Excuse me if it seems a bit vomitous. FWIW, I would humbly submit that it is truly stonerian.
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That alignment of the dynamics of two 'horseraces' didn't last long: Biden has surged ahead to a commanding lead in the polls, as though Manchester City or Liverpool won a game and got 15 points for it, in some cross-competition scoring race for Best Team.
Will it last? The question is whether Biden has learned not to be a "gaffe machine". So far, I'm encouraged by what I've seen about that, but it's way, way early.
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