I just watched an interesting discussion on CNN moderated by Tapper. He asked the panel the question what to make of it--it being Trump's latest Twit-off about the Kavanaugh assault allegation: Ms. Kucinski clearly answered the question, it hurts the campaign for Kavanaugh's confirmation, by making the support of Senators Collins and Murkowski more problematic. Tapper moved on, yes, clearly that is the case, but what is the strategy?
I was surprised that no one answered the question correctly. Bill Kristol seemed so shell-shocked by the blunderbuss that he could not offer a rationale. Robby Mook--how would Tapper go to him for a discussion of strategy?--expressed some talking points of the whole thing being the game of hopscotch (see previous post) and getting through it (so, the strategy of the tweet?) .
What I didn't hear (did I miss something?) was that, for Trump, this confirmation is not the real objective. It doesn't matter to him, that much--particularly as long as he can blame someone else if he "loses" this one. That would be easy. He can find another guy like Kavanaugh, also relatively easily, he could "even be a woman"--Trump had just drawn Brett from a list of 10 vetted for their politics by the extreme right-wing Federalist society, perhaps particularly attracted by Kavanaugh's statements, on the record, limiting the ability of Justice to impede Presidential criminality, and there are confirmable women judges on the list. And, unless McConnell somehow blows it in the Senate contest (it would be entirely his fault), he can get that person confirmed, preserving his "legacy".
Bottom line is: As always, Trump is just trying to whip up his base. Playing the long game, the one win that would matter for Trump in the midterms is if he can somehow save control of the House. He can dare Collins or Murkowski to turn against him in the key vote, whether to proceed to the final confirmation vote, which will be as close to party-line as there is. He can even shut the government down about his Stupid Wall (the crux will come by the end of the month, if it happens). So far, he hasn't seen the need to do it; but he can still do it (to everyone) if he wants. And he likes that.
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On the "Rod Rosenstein thing" - the New York Times report that Rod was, whether seriously or not, speaking out loud with others about invoking the 25th Amendment (the "TFA" as WH snidelys would refer to it) to remove Trump:
Trump will call him in, one-on-one, to have the honest conversation about The Facts of what Rod did say and how he meant it. A trusted assistant (Stephen Miller? He's practically the only one!) will be just outside the room, listening, with his piano wire poised for action. Big Donny will come out and give the signal. Rosenstein might be able to survive the evening, with an I-wasn't-serious kind of line, but he will now be owned. Even better.
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