VP Betting Wars

Here's an extract at 4:20 p.m. MDT of bid/ask prices of the various leading VP contenders on Rasmussen:

	New		Name		Old
7.9	13.8		Clark	13	13.8
13	19.6		Bayh	17.7	20
33	41.9		Biden	34.1	38.7
15	15.8		Kaine	--	--
0.7	5.9		Daschle	0.7	2.1
5.8	13		Reed	--	--
0.7	5.9		Richardson	1.7	3.7
13	13.4		Sebelius	--	--
8.2	9		Hillary	8.4	9
3.5	4		Kerry	--	--
2	7.6		Gore	3.2	6
			Field	25.3	29

The "New Market" doesn't have a "Field" bet, but it has a whole bunch of other names. The Field bet was very weak at that moment--I had purchased it at 37, so I was considering selling it. But, you can see that it represents the combined chances of Kerry, Sebelius, Reed, and Kaine, plus more, which had offers totalling 37.3. So, my original valuation was holding, and I didn't sell.

Which doesn't mean it was right: the boomlet for Biden was becoming a boom before my eyes. I'd had a sneaker for him early on, buying at 4 (note: percent, more or less) and cutting my losses around 2 . A minor cost, and I hadn't seen anything too substantial. So, I had a small emotional investment. When it hit 43 (!), I had to buy--if it was going to pay out, I had to be part of it.

This is a nice, pure play for academic purposes--leaks have been few and far between--and the "new" pool was a good idea. It hasn't attracted a lot of betting interest, though, which helps explain the big gaps between bid and ask.

A sharks' paradise, no doubt; lots of overpriced wannabe-candidates-but-not, but it costs a lot to carry the margin risk for this kind of deadweight, and I'm not one of the bigger fishes. I had a negative bet against Edwards, which worked well (!) and am carrying one on Gephardt (!!)

I had negative ones on Huckabee and Romney, early, but decided I wasn't really so sure of McCampaign on this one. Still not, though my money remains on Crist, whose pending end to bachelorhood will only make him more eligible.

5:20 p.m. The wave has passed, and Biden's number is stabilizing in the high 30's, up about 20 from 48 hours before. We positioned ourselves long on Biden at the current number in both pools, looking for some upside and an eventual payout within a couple of days.