The Iran Gambit

Condoleeza came up with a good one the other day: she offered to join the multilateral talks Europe and Russia have been having with Iran on the nuclear issue, if and only if Iran ceases the centrifuging and other activities which have been deemed steps toward Iran's development of a nuclear weapon.

As a talking point, or a tactical gambit, it's a good one. It addresses the complaint Europe and Russia have made that their negotiations with Iran have been difficult, unproductive, and that the US has not helped. It may tend to get them (the Europeans and Russia) a little more behind taking punitive action against Iran once the Iranians decline to negotiate on the Americans' terms (in fact, they did so immediately, and will no doubt continue to do so). It will not halt the Iranians' march (which actually appears to be a Very Long, Slow March) toward nukes. It's also an attempt to gloss over the fact that the Iranians technically are doing what is allowed under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

About the same time that Condi announced her Gambit, the New York Times had an incredible article which stated that President Ahmedejadine of Iran has grown in power in Iran. It, like Rice's move, shows that ignorance of Iran is manifest in all the highest levels of America. Could they not see that the mullahs have chosen to raise up this clown because he does exactly what they want? If you want to call this "power", OK; it's the power to do what your employer tells you to do. You're empowered.

I recommend the Americans consider the Iranians' counter-offer, which was for either direct or joint talks without preconditions. I further recommend that we establish channels through our partner in Iraq, Ayatollah Sistani. We need to learn more about what makes Iran tick. Why, for example, do they think they need nuclear weapons? (I would argue that their behavior makes it evident that they do think so.) And, how could we influence the changing of that perception?

I'm sure it will not be accomplished by threatening punitive action, nor do I think that it will be accomplished by bribing them with trinkets and nuclear-generated electric power. The first step is for us to make it clear--by our actions--that joining the nuclear weapons club does not make a nation suddenly more important or deserving of our assistance and comity. If we persist in that sort of behavior (and, yes, offering to break our 25+ year isolation of Iran to reward them for their nuclear program is an example of it, but I would advocate it in this special case, in the interests of generally improving our intelligence), we're going to have every two-bit country going nuclear soon.