Yearning for Ronnie?

Certainly not me, but I see a major political party that has managed to forget that its most successful candidate to try to claim the mighty Reaganaut mantle since his Administration has been George W. Bush (rejecting the shingle his own father hung out there!)

Now comes Fred Thompson, who is daily "being convinced" that Republican establishment moneymen have been holding back, waiting for the Second Coming of Reagan and he is it.

All the others claiming to be such Reaganites in this go-round are pretenders (and that's probably all of the declared Republican candidates, though I haven't done the wordchecking from the debates); I can't deny it. That's why there's still need for Fred in certain quarters.

Is Fred the Real (Fake) Thing? I shudder to think it could be true. I find Thompson's positions on many issues to be close to what Reagan might espouse were he here today. He's still feeling his way into the role of Being Presidential, but he's got all the acting chops Ronnie had (i.e., not so many, but enough to gull audiences consistently). At this point, I'm not convinced Fred believes his own shit to the degree Reagan did; Thompson--simply because he's the Imitation Authentic Phony--might never slay in his performances quite the way one would never doubt Reagan's sincerity, no matter how ludicrous the things he was saying or who was paying him to say it.

Reaganism is nice nostalgia, but the more urgent task for Thompson in the real world of today is to avoid being seen as Bushite. Failure to do that would cancel any of the potential swing voter-drawing appeal successful Reaganist performance art could bring him. In that regard, Thompson has made an adroit move by separating himself from Bush's position on immigration. He may have to moderate that one in the general election if he gets the nomination, but there are many new facets of his policy he can bring out once he's convinced everyone he's against "that damned Bushite amnesty bill", as it may come to be called. (I'm against amnesty for Bushites, if that's any help, Fred.)

Thompson will also create distance from Bushite fiscal sloppiness, as do many of the Republican candidates. This one is legitimate, but they are almost all tied to the same anchor of the Iraq War, so that if Bush doesn't pull an "about face...rearward march" this fall they will be pulled down together.

I've heard a lot of discussion of the various candidates, and who will gain and lose from Thompson's imminent entry. The only one I can see gaining is Giuliani: his bid for Reaganism is based on similar governmental policies, rather than alleged philosophical alignment, so Thompson's not treading so much on Giuliani's space. (And, as for public administration, Thompson would appear to be a total cipher, whereas Reagan had at least a record as California governor before running.) The other candidates would all appear to have failed the audition, except John McCain, who is still on the short list for the role but isn't favored by the studio.

Fred Thompson's entry is a rebuke rudest to McCain, his formerly close friend. If McCain's efforts to woo former Bushite party stalwarts had been more successful, Thompson wouldn't have put his toe in. Chuck Todd says he is certain that Fred was making calls for $$ for McCain even into 2007.

I see Thompson as the intended VP candidate to McCain bucking his conditional subordinate position. Thompson would've been a great choice: telegenic, on message, likely to die soon, or split after a term (which provides a political opportunity, as FDR demonstrated), helps in Tennessee, etc. Unfortunately for McCain, many of the same traits apply to him as second fiddle to Thompson ("helps in Arizona"), and the other guy's got the advantages of high recognition, low negatives, and less entrenched positioning. Thus, a shared ticket between the two could go either way, depending on delegate counts from the Unofficial NP.

Thompson has to separate himself from McCain, and the smartest place to do it, somehow, would be on Iraq policy. Let's say Thompson waits to see which way McCain goes, post-September, as the Scurry for Cover begins, then plots a course veering slightly off McCain's. Knowing McCain so well, Fred should be able to rely on McCain to react quickly; he may even be able to anticipate McCain's escape vector and plot evasive action. (Is it possible Thompson never appeared in the Star Trek series? I can see him right now in one of those Roddenberry alien suits with some sort of antennae on top.)

I have to wrap this up by assessing the damage to Newt Gingrich, which looks pretty severe. A reasonably-successful Thompson candidacy launch closes out the ideological space on the right Newt was still looking to exploit. What about Newt making Fred a pitch for a role as a Cheney-esque evil professor-type VP?