Scenario for Impasse (Dems)

Consider these potential percentages of delegates:
Clinton 40%
Obama 30%
Edwards 15%
Richardson 8%
Others (Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, Gravel?, Uncommitted) 7%

If these were the percentages of delegates to emerge from the preliminaries and the Unofficial National Primary, we'd have an interesting situation. There would, of course, be more primaries yet to come, with the "Others" percentage dropping, and pressure on Edwards to make a deal with Obama (and Richardson with Clinton). The Beltway Talking Heads can't stand uncertainty and would try to force some movement, probably through trying to drive out all but the two leaders.

Still, though, if the combined percentage of Obama + Edwards were greater than Clinton's, yet less than 50%, we'd have a formula for a tense nomination finale. Could Al Gore come in with an endorsement for Obama and put him over? Would Everybody's First VP Choice, Stealth-Hispanic Bill Richardson, make a deal with Hillary (or with the other side, even!) and lock up the first spot for someone, taking No. 2 away from Edwards this time? What about Mike Bloomberg as VP?

What would be necessary for this dreaded outcome to happen, vs. today's status? Not much--a little improvement for Obama and Richardson, and the Others actually staying in through the UNP. Or someone running as a stalking-horse for Al Gore. A contested California primary. The press not conceding the crown to Clinton before she wins a primary.

The last point seems to be the tough one; the BTH (see above) seem to be relying on the point that any Republican will come out of the nomination process with as high a negative rating as she will have, and that some sort of argument along those lines will convince Democratic voters who are wary of her chances. Those BTH seem to be really impressed by the quality of her briefings (as opposed to, say, Bill Richardson's briefings). What seems most likely to me is that, despite inconclusive results in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, a big win in Florida will convince BTH (more than the chaotic Nevada caucus results) that Hillary will win in California, and thus, win the nomination. And that they may make that self-fulfilling by anointing her.

I think she will have to get past the awkwardness before the general public, before she can put this one away. She has yet to close the deal with the Democratic primary voters.

Certainly that's the case with me. I remain uncommitted. This fall, I will break my fast from political giving and begin to give to selected infrastructure units. I'm not worried about holding the Senate, or the House, though I may give some tactically late in the game. I've told all the candidates and organizations I'm not giving this year, because there are no elections (did I forget about Kentucky gubernatorial? Even that looks like a Democratic rout, which is pretty shocking in the land of Jack of Diamonds Bushite Mitch McConnell.)