Richardson for Senator!

posted on KNME-TV's Forum for The Line, the Special Edition, after the debate tonight on PBS:

Based on what you said tonight, I have two suggestions:

1) For you--as there are to be other programs like this, don't make the whole program about Bill Richardson. Maybe half?

2) For Bill--He should give some serious thought where he wants to be in January, 2009:
1) Santa Fe;
2) Washington, as VP; or
3) Washington, as Senator.
Although there is still an outside chance for him to "make first-tier", I think that, realistically, he's auditioning for VP. He'd be on any nominee's short list, maybe at the top. Frankly, though, this is a tough race for the Democratic nomination with no shortage of well-schooled, well-heeled, well-prepared candidates.

On the other hand, there is a real challenge out there that Bill could win. Someone needs to run against Pete Domenici (this week's debates on energy should have made that clear), and he would have the best chance of anyone. As it stands, the position of Democratic challenger is going begging.

I'm not sure of the legal technicalities regarding Bill running for Senator as Governor, but I doubt there's any problem. I'm pretty sure that money raised for the Presidential race can be used on another Federal race (such as senatorial).

Conclusion: My advice would be "Richardson for Senator"! Maybe wait a couple more months....

On KNME-TV's "The Line", they savaged him in their post-debate discussion, which focused exclusively on Richardson (except for a few comments about the clear front-runner, HRC). Still, their grade for him was in the C+ to D range, a solid "Gentleman's C". Very Presidential, if we use the incumbent as a point of reference. But still...

As I say, the competition is tough. I would put Bill's chances at about 50-1 to win the presidency. Richardson's candidacy has credibility in New Mexico, as a Favorite Son, and only a few other states: I find it hard to believe that Iowa and New Hampshire are among them, but California could be. Not necessarily to win in it, but even 5-10% of voters in the state, unevenly distributed, would mean some significant delegates. It would also deprive Clinton and Obama of that percentage in the statewide horserace, the outcome of which will be important psychologically in the public perception of the eventual nominee (the press--the Beltway Talking Heads, or BTH--will make it important).

So, it could still make sense for him to run all the way through California; if we're to have an interesting race after the Unofficial National Primary, it's indispensible. Realistically, I should grant him another eight months or so before he should bolt. Maybe he'll wait until after the discussions between the prospective nominee and leading VP candidates (over/under on that one starting, in a public way, is April 17). It just seems so far away!