Nothing Done; Nothing Doing

I'm reluctant to post such a downer, but it needs to be said:  the domestic agenda is a shambles, and there is only the prospect of it getting worse.

There were a couple of uncharacteristic moments of bipartisan agreement in the Senate this week, on student loan governance and on some pending political nominees, but they don't amount to all that much.  With regard to student loans, it was an easy political agreement to keep interest rates low--the program makes money for the government now, and allowing rates to double now, while market rates are so low, would have been ruinously, broadly unpopular.  The real problem may come in a couple of years when rates rise, as the loan program's rates will now be tied to the marketplace, and there may be tough days ahead for students and their families.

As for the nominees, Republicans were in a losing position and made an agreement along the lines that I recently predicted (see the section titled "Nuke 'em. Harry?!"  They didn't give in on judicial nominations--a numerically more sizable issue--and Democrats backed off their threats to throw the filibuster rules overboard (at least some of them did so).  It just means that Republicans in the Senate will continue to be able to frustrate Obama Administration initiatives with a minority.

As for the Republican House, they seem to have firmed up their principles of obstruction; it as though they are determined to prove the Federal government's inefficacy by sabotaging it.  John Boehner, on Face the Nation this morning, made it pretty clear that the Senate's immigration bill will not reach the House floor in a recognizable shape.  We can also look forward to more House obstruction on the budget (after all the wailing about how the Administration has produced no budgets, the Republicans from both houses of Congress seem intent to block one being produced), madness on the debt ceiling coming up this fall (the House is talking about non-starters to prevent full funding of the Administration's prime legislative accomplishment, the healthcare insurance reform referred to as "Obamacare")--what really burns them is that the "crisis" of deficits seems to be curing itself much faster than expected--and don't even talk about doing something to rein in the insanity of our gun laws.
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On immigration, I found that we are almost exactly in the same position as in my 2006 post on the subject, the last time there was a serious attempt made at comprehensive reform (with the support of President Bush):  a Senate bill that is barely adequate (basically a humiliating slap at the undocumented, and a boondoggle of wasteful spending on the border), and a House that won't consider anything that would allow the undocumented to become legal, under any circumstances.  A majority of the Republicans in the House are in districts where their greatest threat is from their own party, if they allowed the immigrants to stay, while the additional voters who would gain citizenship are not going to be forthcoming to their party anyway.  The main question is whether the Republican House can muster a majority within its caucus to support an expansion of the H-1B visas (which go to highly-skilled foreigners, under the condition that the jobs they take can't be filled domestically), something that business supports but doesn't sit well with the anti-immigrant nativists, and whether the Senate and the President will agree to such a limited reform when it becomes clear that is the best that can be achieved.  My advice would be to accept it if, and only if, they drop all that nonsense about adding $X billion more for unnecessary border agents and more wall-building.

It's clear that President Obama will be forced to make the 2014 midterm elections into a referendum on the do-nothing Congress.  It will be a wasteful, hugely expensive and counter-productive exercise;  there are too many Republicans in safe House districts, and, to make it worse, plenty of danger that they could even take over control of the Senate (early prediction is that it will be within 1-2 votes either way, and independent Angus King will fulfill my prediction, two years later, to become the most important Senate vote).*  Then, after the depressing, low-turnout debacle, the new Congress will feel vindicated in their inert ways and President Obama will have to find other ways to complete his Presidential legacy than domestic legislative achievement.

There are such agenda items, and Obama had one of his finest moments this week when he spoke from the heart about racial profiling and the Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman case.  It wasn't part of either his campaign agenda or mine, but one of his greatest accomplishments could be advancing the national conversation on race, with a renewed push for changes that can make this multi-racial society more just. Another possibility arose, somewhat unexpectedly, when Secretary of State Kerry announced that there was agreement from Israel and the Palestinians to resume final status negotiations.  After 2014, Obama could begin to get some perverse enjoyment from vetoing bills passed by a Congress with both houses controlled by Republicans.

Finally, to end the post on a most optimistic note: my fondest hope is that one of the hardcore three Supreme Court justices--Alito, Thomas, or Scalia--kicks the bucket before the 2014 elections, and we have the knock-down drag-out battle over replacing him with a more moderate or liberal justice, potentially upsetting the right-wing slant of the Roberts Court.  It may be a low probability event, but the thought of it lightens my heart.

* I still think it is too early to give more than nominal contributions to the various candidates and party organizations for the 2014 elections:  it only encourages them, and their opponents, to ask for more. 

No Second Chance at a Preseason Prediction

Baseball's All-Star break (for the record, my view is that a little break is good from the grind, though four days long is one too many, and it should be earlier in the season by about three weeks) prompts a whole round of self-second-guessing: Sports Illustrated's "Baseball 2013 (Re) Preview" being just the most egregious.

I can see the point of a mid-year review of the differences of how things have played out so far vs. what the preseason expectations were, but allowing the so-called prognosticators to revise their predictions (which SI and my current local paper, the Chicago Tribune, did) is weak and unfair to those of us who are willing to be judged on their preseason forecasts (mine were recorded here on 4/19 in a comment following on to a pre-season post, so a little after the season started, and I'll get to those in a moment).  There is a world of difference between trying to predict before the season has started, or at least established any patterns, and doing so 60% of the way through the regular season. This is a time for self-praise, or mea culpas, not revisionism. 

I will, however, stipulate the "right" of self-proclaimed pundits (like me) to put down new predictions for the postseason in that narrow window between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the wild card playoffs: There is often a knife-edge of difference between teams in the homestretch getting in or not, full-fledged playoff entries or one-game play-ins, and home-field advantage (whatever that's worth), and it's hard enough trying to anticipate those short-series outcomes when the matchups are clearly in view. 

So.  Of the six ML divisions, I have the All-Star break leaders in just two (Atlanta and Detroit), but I like my chances in three more (Dodgers, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay); only the pick of the Angels seems improbable or impossible.  The Reds are in third but seem likely to make the playoffs, at least, and a lot of the experts look at the dynamics and the schedules and conclude they still have a real good shot at first.  My picks for the WC's are less prescient:  the picks of the Giants and Nats both look unlikely at this point--I will give myself some credit for not picking these popular favorites for division titles, but didn't fully (dis)credit them for the weaknesses that have been exposed.  As for the AL, I picked the A's and Rangers for the spots, which wasn't too bad:  one will win the division and the other is likely to get a Wild Card spot.  

The teams that seem--by popular revisionist thought and their current position in the standings-- to be playoff-bound that I didn't identify are (first, two that few if any spotted) the Red Sox (not certain, but likely) the Pirates (I'm still skeptical), and the Cardinals, a decision which is less forgivable.  I saw a pattern of early injuries with St. Louis and the Yankees and discounted their chances. The Yanks started strong but have been fading as their overpriced, overrated stars (and also Curtis Granderson) have failed to return successfully, but the Cards overcame their issues early and their depth has allowed them to bring forward a host of new rising stars (Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, Edward Mujica) who have filled the gaps nicely.  They have the best record in the majors and are clearly a threat to go all the way, in spite of my hostile, jealous, emotion-driven forecasting blind spot.  

Bringing It All Back Home

I return from visiting Europe and find the Homeland close to the breaking point, socially. 

Trayvon v. Zimmerman: My Side of the Story
I don't feel the case everyone has been watching is really all that compelling, or important--at best, it's significant, as representative of a common problem--but everyone in the news business does seem to have been watching it, like all the time.  It's basically a case of "his word against mine" except that he's dead, and the other didn't testify.

So, here's my take. The wannabe policeman neighborhood warrior, on his self-appointed, self-armed rounds, sees a suspicious case of someone Walking While Black--in his neighborhood, no less! He follows, approaches said young black man, asks, "Let me see some ID", and Mr. Martin instead shows him his fist in Mr. Zimmerman's face, following up with a grapple. Fight ensues, the person of self-appointed authority not feeling so authoritative, reaches for his gun.  End of story.

The case came down to two things: comparative sophistication of jury selection methods (the better-funded side usually wins, which means a well-funded defense, as with the O.J. Simpson case), and the question of whether Florida's "Stand Your Ground" law, which allows someone to use deadly force when threatened, was applicable in this case and, upon a possible appeal, constitutionally sound.

What's to learn from this highly unfortunate episode? Clearly, "Stand Your Ground" is bad public law--if carried to its extreme, in an insecure world, everyone would be packing and shooting others the first time they felt threatened. The verdict doesn't really establish the viability of the law properly--it was more like the jury felt there was sufficient reason to credit a claim of self-defense--so I think it is appropriate for a civil case--one that I think the Martin family might well win--to test that defense. I don't think there will be a case for a Federal hate crime case and don't think that will happen.

We all know that young black men (or large young black boys) are objects of suspicion in white culture, and to some extent among law enforcement types, as well.  Zimmerman is somewhat in that milieu and seemed to feel empowered to approach and demand obedience to a stranger who wasn't doing anything too unusual. I have seen the kind of hostile response I described above to this kind of self-righteous demand for credentials from unofficial self-empowered types (and not just from black folks).

We know that there is a presumption of innocence in our courts.  I'd like to suggest that there be such a presumption in civil society, particularly when there is no knowledge of any crime having been committed. On the other foot, I have to suggest a couple of other things:  don't dress like a thug, or you'll be seen as one; don't dress like a prostitute, or expect to be propositioned by johns; don't dress like a hippie, or expect to be searched for drugs.  Don't dress like a swell, or expect thieves to think you've got money.

Nuke 'em, Harry!?
Echoing the hypothetical advisers to former President Truman, various partisan groups have been advising Senator Reid to select "the nuclear option" to break the filibustered nominations of several Obama appointees subject to Senate confirmation.  The parliamentary stratagem would propose the rules be changed to allow those nominations' debate to be closed by a simple majority, rather than the 60-vote supermajority.  The presumed majority supporting the motion (more than 50, less than 60 votes) would then be upheld by the presiding officer of the Senate (presumably Vice President Biden).

Majority Leader Reid is threatening the maneuver to force the Republicans to allow a vote on the nominees, which no one disputes would actually be approved if they were allowed to come to a vote. With one or two exceptions among these, the Republicans' objections are not to the nominees themselves but to the agencies they would head up, so their filibuster has an illegitimate aspect, the obstruction of the executive branch and its administration of law.  Nevertheless, Minority Leader McConnell is threatening all sorts of dire consequences if the Democrats and Reid choose to pick the fight over Senate rules.

In particular, there is a real danger that the Republicans could gain control of the Senate, as soon as the next Congress, and turn this precedent against the Democrats' (minority) interest.  I would point out that this debate has been going on, and commented on in this blog, for several years under control of both parties. It's become a perennial problem.

The probable outcome is that the Republicans would agree to let some of those nominees be voted upon immediately, and others within a limited period of time.  The Democrats will be tempted to take that offer and avoid the constitutional crisis. Though I think the Republicans will be permanently marginalized as a potential majority party within ten years at the rate they are going, I would suggest a little bit of patience with the Senators, who are at least attempting to keep their body from degenerating to the level of the infamous House of Representatives.