2008 Campaign Update

The Electoral Map has gotten a lot of attention, deservedly: it's not impossible for Obama to win by 3-4 points and still lose the Electoral College (it could've happened to Dubya in '04 if he didn't have control of the state house in Ohio).

I'm sticking with my previous assessment: my best guess is for a 293-245 win. Robert Novak lines the states up the same, except for Ohio--he feels McCain is stronger than Bush was there, so his is 273-265. I give him credit for making calls and not just dumping everything that's Too Close To Call (there's really about 15 states in that category) into the toss-up category. Rasmussen's analysis, when leaners are included, moved from 293 for Obama to 273, because they have moved Ohio from Leans Democrat to Toss-up. The other toss-up states they show are Virginia and Nevada--have to agree with that.

The difference betweeen a cliff-hanger and a safe win are the outcomes in Ohio and Michigan, where McCain seems to think he can win. The difference between a safe win and an Electoral College landslide are Virginia, Nevada, and Missouri. I'll be more than satisfied with a safe win, but it makes sense to do everything to keep the latter three in play down to the wire.

The Ohio/Michigan thesis may be borne out in the selection of VP's. Michigan was a strong state for Mitt Romney in the primary and, in the state, he's family: second-generation, once-removed. Better than the bland Clintonite, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, would be Kathleen Sebelius, who is second-generation, once-removed from Ohio (she's the daughter of the most successful Democratic statewide politician of the latter 1900's, John Gilligan). She brings successful executive experience, compatibility, and tactical advantage--as well as being a woman, which is not a bad idea at all (least of all in a VP nominee). She remains my top choice.