See Benny Morris of Ben-Gurion University on "Using Bombs to Stop Wars", http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/18/opinion/18morris.html.
He logically builds an airtight case for the inevitability of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear sites in the period Nov. 5- Jan. 19 (a frighteningly real possibility, I admit), dismissing along the way any chance of negotiation, the possibility that mutual deterrence could prevent Iran using its hypothetical weapons, and even any chance that Israel's attack could work.
It seems to be addressed to the leaders in Iran, supported by Bushites (and the desperate Olmert government) as an adjunct to their "you get one chance to agree to our demands before we declare war, while we still can" policy--an ultimatum, in so many words, and to have been planted in the New York Times as a personal favor to some US intelligence apparatchik. I choose that interpretation over its being a desperate plea for help from the Israeli Intelligence to Washington: stop us before we hurt ourselves! Clearly the Olmert government, with scandals closing in and Labor pulling out, is willing to go to extremes: they're even threatening to make an agreement with the PLO (or whatever they call themselves today)!
In this vein, I like Obama's support for Jerusalem, undivided, as capital of Israel. I think he should have the same policy for the Palestinian Federation, Abbas' organization (the same former-PLO one), and, if they learn to behave themselves, Hamas. Then, in 2013, for the world, in the form of the (expanded, revised) Security Council of the U.N. With all the transplanted bureaucrats (and new McDonald's for the workers coming to support them), Jerusalem will become the priciest real estate that side of London. That would then be a well-deserved peace dividend!
On the Positive side: Talking Points Memo's Greg Sargent on the Obama Foreign Policy speech. Sargent's analysis focused on it as a point-by-point rebuttal to McCain's attacks. http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/obama_i_strongly_stand_by_my_p.php. (I have to praise TPM in this way since they did some dysfunctional change to their login process, which seems to have permanently screwed up my ID. Now, don't tell me it was intentional!)
And, at least, Obama gave a sentence to the indea of reform of the United Nations. It's a start.
Friday, July 18, 2008
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