Congrats to The Man

I've been a little negligent in congratulating Obama on clinching the nomination. I've gone through the standard gamut of reactions--anger at Hillary for not conceding gracefully on time, relief when she finally did, pleasure at the start of the bump in the polls I expect over the next few weeks. Nothing very original about that, but mostly I was just too busy. I was also pleased to be wrong in my prediction on the timing of achievement of the Magic Number (Remember the song "This Magic Moment"?) , as the Obama camp had lined up the enedorsements so he clinched the nod a day earlier than I thought.

It should be quite a general election campaign, and I'm fully expecting a good result. 293-245 looks reasonable still as a prediction for the Electoral College, and there's a good chance it could be better. The 50-state plan Obama's campaign is planning is a good strategy to stretch out McCain's limited resources and ultimately break down the Republicans' defenses.

My plan is to contribute here in New Mexico and to work here. The Democrats should pick up a House seat and a Senate seat here, and the Presidential contest here--as always--will be close. Turnout will be the key in Northern New Mexico, but the critical principle should be to challenge everywhere, and not neglect Democrats in the Southern, Republican part of the state. My predictions are for the 250-260 range for Democrats in the House, and for the high end of the 56-60 range for the Senate (counting independent Sanders, but not, alas, the turncoat Lieberman) .