Massive Celtics' Win

Tonight in game 4 of the playoff finals, the Boston Celtics came back from a 20+ point deficit in the first half and won. As bad as they were in the first half is how good they were in the second. Congratulations to the Celtics on the key road win.

The Lakers had a 10-0 home record before that game; the Celtics had a similar record before losing their first home game, to the Pistons in the Eastern Conference finals. They came right back and beat the Pistons to even things up and won in seven games, maintaining their home advantage after recovering it. The situation is far worse for the Lakers; they may well recover and win big in their next game, but that is (just) a home game and will still leave them down 3-2, with the final two games in Boston.

All things being equal, the Lakers would have a 1-in-8 chance of coming through with three straight wins, but things are not equal due to the Celtics' homecourt advantage. The chances are more like 5%:

• 20% chance the Celtics wrap it on the road in Game 5;
  
• 60% chance they lose, but win at home in Game 6 and finish it;
  
• 15% chance they lose twice but suck it up to win Game 7; and
  
• 5% they lose three straight times.

As a child, I rooted against both the Celtics and Lakers, who I saw as being boring perennial conference winners. I kept that stance during the Bird-Magic years and rooted against any team against either of them. Somewhere along the way, though, I eased up on the Celtics (who've been bad for 20 years) and firmed up my distaste for the showboating Hollywood Lakers. Acquiring Garnett and Allen, bringing Doc Rivers in as coach, and putting Rondo as point guard were all gutsy moves which I respect. I like the Lakers' midyear move to get Pau Gasol, and their future looks bright, but I go with the Celtics and their "fierce urgency of now". Lakers will deserve every consideration as favorite next year.