Endgame 1.2

What are these states that are left here at the end of the process? They are the ones that couldn't, or wouldn't, spend the money to move earlier. Probably their broad primary election date was mandated by their state or territorial government; to go earlier would put the burden on the party, and these are the ones that have weak parties.

The Democratic party chairmen of Indiana and North Carolina must find it hilarious that they have gained a turn in the spotlight. I hope they are profiting from the fickle attentions of the media and national political culture. I don't expect either Democratic candidate to seriously challenge for the Electoral votes of either in November.

The media keeps looking for drama in these outcomes, but there hasn't been any since the Unofficial National Primary (a/k/a Super Tuesday I, Feb. 5). You could put these states in any order and the results would be similar. The Obama campaign has had them (the expected results) in their calculators for months.

We're predicting a 52-47 win for Clinton in Indiana, and 55-44 for Obama in North Carolina. There will be no significant change in delegates on the night (+/- 2). It will be clearer still that it's time to Move On.

Stephanopoulos Cut Again
Our state's leading ABC affiliate, KOAT, once again joined the network program "This Week" in progress, this time 30 minutes into what appeared to be a debate with one participant, Hillary Clinton (the coveted 4:30-5 p.m. slot, poorly used--home shopping stuff would be much more cost-effective).

I never heard the rationale for this travesty of a sham: Why did ABC go along with producing it? Are they trying to make amends for their dismal performance at the last one? If so, this hardly seemed to do it. Maybe the local station knows what it's doing, after all.

Anyway, there was a chance for Hillary to follow up the talk of "obliterating Iran". Instead of going for the high road, educating the American people that the provocations we can expect from Iran over the next few years don't include a nuclear missile fired from there onto Israeli soil, HRC showed her claws with relish. Obama had properly called her out for "saber rattling". This answer, to me, is a smoking gun that Hillary, like McCain, could easily fall into the next Middle East war trap. As with Gas-Tax-Scam, she and McCain fail the "significantly better than Dubya" test on Iran (two-tailed).

Election Betting News

Indiana: On Rasmussen, it's been Clinton, 85-15. 75-25 on CNN. I've been unwinding since I took a small pro-Obama position when it was 55-45.
North Carolina: 92-8 on Rasmussen.

I've been taking advantage of some rise in Clinton support for the nomination, getting some additional bets on Obama to win the nomination at 73% (a momentary flutter; it's back to around 77%). I've had the bids out there for months while the nomination (and the less-traded Obama-McCain parley, which I bought at 14%) has been stuck at 80-20. I feel good about these: getting an eventual winning bet cheap.

The most interesting betting is on who will have the most superdelegates (SD). Clinton, of course, has had the lead in announced SD since the 20th century, but the betting has been over 50% for Obama for months. The key to this one is its expiration date: August 1. At that point, the nomination should be wrapped up, if it's going to be, pre-convention.

Still, though, there seems trepidation on this bet on both sides: a large Bid-Ask gap, with the sum of the Bid percentage for both sides only about 95%. Obama is closing the SD Gap with Hillary, very slowly, but when the graph will cross 0 seems to have a high degree of uncertainty about it. It probably won't be until June, and when it hits 0 it could keep going very fast (as uncertainty about "the presumptive nominee" ends). Not like a landslide, but it is like an avalanche.