Games of Near-Consequence

We need to explain a bit better what makes this NBA season so special. Most years, there are 2-3 teams which really have a chance to challenge seriously for the title. If two of those teams meet in the finals, it can be climactic and exciting, but more often than not, they don't.

This has been the case many recent seasons; last year's finals provide a good example. The Cavaliers knocked out in the Conference Finals the one Eastern team which had a chance to compete with the Western Conference winner (i.e., Detroit). So, it was 4-0 West in the Finals.

This year, I would say that there were no less than eight teams with a real chance to contend. Boston and Detroit in the East, and six of the eight teams that made the playoffs in the West (excluding only Denver, which doesn't play defense, and Houston, because they had no chance without Yao in the lineup).

Two teams of consequence were thus eliminated in the first round: they were the ones which made the controversial moves to bring big-time, proven stars and champions to their teams at the trade deadline--Phoenix (with Shaq coming over) and Dallas (with Kidd). Their teams were unlucky to end up playing tough first-round opponents (Spurs and Hornets, respectively), and it really was luck, given the scramble for spots that happened in the West, going down to the last week for spots 3-9 (of the 8 available).

Our key prediction, brought out initially in a comment to our posting "NBA update", was of the Final Four, all of which I expected to be teams of consequence, capable of going all the way: Celtics-Pistons in the East, and Spurs-Lakers in the West.

Tonight's games were of great significance because they were potential home defeats of Final Four teams in critical Game 5 encounters. The Celtics were seriously challenged at home by the Cavaliers, who had LeBron going wild in the first half and led Boston by double-digits. Then, later, the Utah Jazz made a serious second-half run at the Lakers.

Neither game ended up being consequential in the end. My man Rajan Rondo, Fourth Man in the Celtics' Big 3 (they actually do get to play five at a time), came up big as I thought he would do at some point in the playoffs. Quality point guard play being critical to success, he had to.

In the Jazz-Lakers game, the Jazz spotted a real opportunity because Kobe was hobbled by back injury and so could not dominate in the way he normally does. With the Jazz having someone nearly as talented and competitive as Bryant, their point guard Deron Williams, there was a question whether the Lakers could answer the Jazz' best shots yet (by far) at a road win in L.A., which would likely have been fatal given the Jazz' tremendous success at home.

Pau Gasol saved the Lakers tonight. He was the third big trade just before the deadline. Unlike Kidd and Shaq, Gasol has no championship rings nor even any significant playoff experience before this year (any at all?) The move was the best of the three, though, and he provided immediate benefits--more than Kidd or Shaq--and has continued to do so.
Gasol did alot tonight, but he made two big plays that made the difference. Both were offensive rebounds that led to Laker scores down the stretch. On both occasions he was pushing off a Jazz player who had better position, but no foul was called.

These were the most egregious homer calls by the refs in the Laker game, but they were not the only ones. I saw Jazz coach Jerry Sloan ripping the officials afterwards, but I'm guessing he will forego the public posturing and paying fines and, rather, try to plant the seed that perhaps they could be a little less favorable to the Lakers in Game 7, if Utah can make it back there.

The TNT broadcasters are fond of exclaiming about how home teams are 19-1 so far in this round of the playoffs. This game gave a good indication why. In the postgame wrap, Kenny Smith did comment that "that was an offensive foul" about the second, decisive one, but no one heeded the point and followed up. Instead, there was a cute comment by guest commentator Avery Johnson about, "What's his name, again?" referring to the "POW!" he gave Okur on the play. I liked that; that's about as far as one can go without giving offense to the refs (Avery may want to coach again someday, like next year!) or undermining "the product" the network must back at all costs.

This round, the default result is for the favored home team to win the series, and no team of consequence has lost at home. This may be tested in a few days, if the Spurs win Game 6 and go to New Orleans for Game 7. The Hornets pushed back the Spurs' road challenge brilliantly in their Game 5 home win, so they have earned the right to play at home in the decisive game with a chance to knock out the defending champs and everyone's favored team (including mine). We know the Spurs will not shirk from the challenge; yet they can be beaten. In fact, I wouldn't be that surprised if the Hornets--tremendous over-achievers for their first time at this altitude in the playoffs--come up with that rare road win themselves in San Antonio.

As for my predicted Eastern champ, the Celtics continue to do enough at home to get by. Kevin Garnett is right when he says they must find the ability to do better on the road, but it's not to the point that they actually have to win there, and it may never be. They do have the home-court advantage all the way through the finals.