Endgame 2.1

Edwards' endorsement wraps it, as far as most anyone not on Hillary's campaign can see. A brief spike in his fortunes to be VP; more likely winning bet is on AG (Atty. Gen.)--if you can find a market for that one.

I'm reading Team of Rivals (Doris Kearns Goodwin's historical piece on Lincoln and his selection of his party rivals for the nomination for principal Cabinet posts), and I like the idea as it applies to Barack Obama. His approach seems to be to take personal involvement in selecting his staff and advisors. Besides Edwards, it would make sense for him to draw heavily from the pool of his Democratic campaign competitors:
o Richardson for EPA;
o Biden for State (though Lugar is probably a better bet);
o Dodd for Supreme Court justice (Edwards also worth consideration--he could be John Roberts' nemesis--his "man marker" as they say in English footie--for the next 40 years!);
o Hillary for ??? (Education and/or HHS would be slam dunks, but I think she's headed to run for Governor if Obama wins, and to start her 2012 organization in 2009 if she loses);
o Dennis Kucinich (yes!) for Labor;
o Finally, Wes Clark (who never declared, went early for Hillary this time around) for Defense.
Who am I forgetting?

I do like the idea, which has been strongly mooted on the blogs recently, of Sen. Jim Webb (VA) as the VP choice. I also like Gov. Jean Sebelius (KS) or Clark, either of which should mollify at least one camp in the Clinton constellation of support, and former Rep. Lee Hamilton (IN), if they want to go the "Dick Cheney" eminence grise route. Obama should prioritize military affairs or executive experience, along with helping in a normally red state, to further his strategic approach of challenging McCain in all 50 states and thus stretching McCain to the breaking point.

Hillary v. Penn

It looks like (I hope) Hillary has finally shucked the bad advice she's been getting from Mark Penn this time around. Or maybe he's actually given some good advice, finally--occasionally, one gets something right by accident. Anyway, she's making the smart play at this point by toning down, setting the stage for a graceful concession which will keep her future options open.

I knew Penn and would easily recognize him if I saw him anywhere (he wouldn't recognize me, but that's because he's a social slug). I used to work for Penn & Schoen on the Upper East Side (mid-'80's), part-time evenings. Mostly I was their ace data inputter (theirs was mostly one-finger typing, and some open-ended texts, though I did like operating their match-merge manual interface), but also I did a fair number of their phone surveys (pretty tough conditions).

It was very clear from doing their surveys what the approach was. See how far you could push the preference numbers by trying out slanted "framing" of the opposition. Run everything possible up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes anything. The technique has clearly been visible in the HRC campaign, particularly in its latter stages.

Penn was the Nerd-king at the time, Doug Schoen the smooth-talking counselor. There were "intern nerds" Penn scooped from Poli Sci programs who designed individual surveys to facilitate their pitch to candidates. It was pretty much non-ideologic, middle-of-the-road conventional wisdom triangulation. No doubt it works, both commercially and electorally, and they are both extremely wealthy as a result (particularly Penn). Schoen (whose contributions I read on Rasmussen) has managed to retain more dignity, if that counts.