3 Short Bits

A test to see whether I can overcome my prolixity:

Eve of the RBC

Of the various scenarios mooted, I see the outcome being FL/MI getting all pledged delegates seated with half-votes; SD's get their full votes (though a just decision would include a penalty on the voting of any of the SD's who made this mess possible, e.g. Carl Levin).

DemConWatch pegged this scenario a week ago (http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html).
Based on their analysis then, the Magic Number is changed to 2130.5, and Obama would be 93 short, in terms of committed delegates, with 338 out there yet to be won. This outcome would not change the over/under on the day Obama would clinch; it would remain June 4. Given this fact, Obama should go along with this outcome, even though it temporarily would reduce his delegate lead from the current 200 by about 50. He would get most of them back as the Edwards/uncommitted/undeclared delegates shake out.

Electoral College Map 0.2

Rasmussen--Virginia is the third state currently in the toss-up range (40-60), along with Nevada and New Hampshire. I think the movement is due to the groundswell for Jim Webb as V.P. and some thought that would swing the state toward Obama. Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio are the ones more solidly expected to switch from the 2004 results. I've experienced too many Virginia elections to believe this one, though.

S.D., P.R. in Play?

Today there was some strong support for Hillary in South Dakota, and the expected value of her winning (that's what the state bet means) jumped from the .05-.07 range to the .10-.15 range. I don't see any reason for it, and bet against it yesterday at .115.

The Puerto Rico number for Obama remains low at about .035, which seems reasonable. He doesn't want to go after a win so much as a 40% kind of showing, which will get him sooner to the Magic Number, whatever it is or becomes. It's probably worth a visit down, and I hope he's got his thoughts together. In New York Urban Spanglish.