Post-PA Alignment

PA--Exactly as before, more or less as predicted (9.4% margin instead of 7%).

Indiana now becomes, after New Hampshire, California, Texas/Ohio, and Pennsylvania, the one more mountain that Barack Obama has to climb to win the nomination. Imagine Indiana having a mountain, or being a mountain, anyway. This one, though, I think, is a bit more scalable. The idea is that if Obama wins Indiana, the fence-sitters among Superdelegates will get off (of it). I find this plausible, though of course only a conditional solution.

I love that Lee Hamilton has endorsed Obama--that one is VP-worthy for Barack, just as Charlie Crist was for McCain in his crucial Florida primary. Yes, I'm suggesting Hamilton in the Dick Cheney role. I think it could work extremely well, put Indiana totally in play in November, and give Obama the best possible person to have in his Administration in that reserve roster position.

The keys for Obama will be massive turnout in the northern part of the state and a decent showing in Indianapolis. I think Barack will take a direct personal involvement in mapping out the winning strategy for the state--it's too critical to delegate. In terms of media buy, much of it will be in Chicago--home turf--and in Louisville, where it will serve also for the Kentucky race, if necessary.

I don't find that ads have been that effective for Obama, though, not like his grassroots-combined-with-personal-appearance approach--when he's had the chance to build it. Kentucky and Indiana might appear to be difficult terrain, but are actually quite fertile if he sows it properly.


CNN has belatedly started a pool on the outcome of the Indiana primary, and the action was heavy and unstable. As usual, some serious Obama money arrived and pushed up his figure, to the point almost of 50%. Technically, one should bet against him at that point, but I couldn't do it. I like better the upset chances on Rasmussen, where he's running at about 30-35% for the state. That's down a bit, despite the fact that the latest polls (before PA) showed him closing in fast. The shift in the Delphi prob (that's what I'd call it; it's not really a probability) is legit, though; it represents a certain portion of the probability that shifted because Hillary didn't lose PA (or come close to losing it) and thus give up the ghost.