Eve of PA

We're predicting a Clinton win, 53-46. 2% Std Dev. on that, so 90% chance Obama's will be between 42-50. The consensus of polls (with one or two exceptions) is around a 5-7 point lead for HRC. Obama will exceed the turnout of young people, blacks that the polls have, but Clinton will get more from the late white male deciders. The margin of delegates for HRC will be negligible.

Obama is now projecting to about a 200-delegate lead once superdelegates make up their mind, and assuming the big win in NC and the narrow loss in IN pretty much kill Hillary's real chances, this one shapes up to fold just about when Puerto Rico votes at the beginning of June. Dean will push hard then, and immediately afterward if necessary. Obama's lead will be sufficient that he can do the magnanimous thing and seat the Florida and Michigan delegations. Because they won't matter.