Endgame: 1.1

According to the most scientific counts I can find, there are 408 pledged delegates yet to be chosen from the 8-10 territorial entities yet to vote. Short of a dramatic move (like Obama somehow making a successful play to the Puerto Rican Democratic voters, like pledging to work for statehood--which I personally recommend--see If I were Running Things, Pt. 1), it seems conservative and reasonable to expect that he will win at least 45% of these contested delegates. This would bring him, by the latest counts, to 1909, with 2024 needed. He would thus need to pick up 115 of the 302 uncommitted superdelegates (or net out to that number of additional pledges, if some switch candidates). Hillary, with the same assumptions (i.e., 55% of the remaining pledged from primaries and caucuses) would need 207 of those 302. Thus, the expectation that Obama will ultimately win the nomination.

Considering the Michigan and Florida mess, and its impact, makes it a clear imperative that those states' delegations composition will not be considered until after the nominee is determined. As it stands even today, the count with those two states suggests only an 11-delegate lead for Obama, with 55 pledged delegates from the "uncommitted" line in the Michigan primary (I've read about half are Obama supporters), and an extraordinarily high percentage (some 63%) of superdelegates from the two states uncommitted. There are several booby traps there, blasting caps--"Don't touch 'dem!" as Willie Mays used to say to us kids in the TV commercial.

I have three top choices for Obama's VP nomination--I assume he will do the right thing and formally offer the spot on the ticket to Hillary, once he is absolutely certain she will decline--who I've got to name:

1) Sen. Jim Webb (VA)--yes, I bought the Kool Aid. Counters McCain's Defense enthusiasms with someone who knows the military reality from the inside.
2) Ex-Rep. Lee Hamilton (IN)--The major figure from this newly-pivotal state who has endorsed Obama. He's also the most knowledgeable and experienced generalist on national security in the party, who has only enhanced the reputation he earned by taking a leading role in winning the Cold War in the years since his Congessional retirement in 2001 by leading up resolutely non-partisan efforts to diagnose 9/11's failures and to help the Bushites from the Iraq morass (of course, the latter assistance was politely ignored).
3) Gov. Jean Sebelius (KS)--that's Kansas' initials, I think. Executive experience desired.

Each brings help in a very interesting state, one that fits perfectly into the Obama general election strategy, which I see as applying real pressure to McCain (and his inferior financial status) in as many states as possible, looking for cracks. The key is if he can deliver the increased Democratic enrollment in November that seems to have been present throughout the primary season. This means, at a minimum, a decent convention (apart from some generally-ignored platform battles, maybe) and a strong endorsement, with no monkey business, from Edwards and HRC.

If it works, he could win without Ohio or Florida (or Michigan or Pennsylvania, though certainly not without any of them). Obama can compete in states like Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, even Kansas, Indiana, and Montana, that have been written off before the election started in the recent past. This will bring Presidential Electoral College politics into the 21st Century (contradiction as that may seem: bringing the 19th century into the 21st!)

I think the smartest move would be Sebelius: she looked very impressive (though diminutive) the couple of times I've seen her on national TV, and it would be the best way to assuage any hurt feelings among Hillary's supporters. Bill Richardson might've done as well for him, but he has lost favor with the Clintonistas.

Once again, kudos to "2008 Democratic Convention Watch", which dares to name names on all the committed and uncommitted-but-named superdelegates (see Superdelegate Endorsement List). This fact of this kind of accountability gives some hope for a respectable outcome to a disreputable process.