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Friday, September 28, 2007

Five Goes Into Three...How?

A great situation going into the last weekend with 5 teams competing for three playoff slots in the NL. Cubs and Brewers will compete for the other NL slot, but have no effect on this mess (except for the Brews being the opponents for the 'dres).

The good news is that a five-way tie at the end of the regular season is not possible. The key series, between the D'backs and the Rockies, will end with the Rockies either 1 game ahead of Arizona, or 1, 3, or 5 games behind them.

The bad news is that a meaningful logjam seems probable at 89 wins, at 90 wins, or both. The messiest situation that can probably emerge is a four-way tie behind Arizona, e.g. D'backs at 90 wins and the other four at 89. Then they'd need to do playoffs for both the NL East and WC, with the NL East playoff loser in a highly ambiguous status.

Arizona is the only team that can book its own playoff spot at this point, by winning two or more against the Rockies. Even one win might do it, depending particularly on the Met/Phillies' successes vs. their non-contending opponents.

The three teams that will emerge are a total crapshoot, beyond the D'backs who'd seem to have an edge with Webb tonight.

My picks from this are the Phils (NL East), Mets (WC), and Padres (NL West) (also the Brewers, but let's forget that for the moment). I believe there is no way for these outcomes to emerge directly from the regular season, so I'm rooting for the Rockies, 'dres, and Easterners and expecting my teams to emerge from the improvised one-game playoffs.

Arizona 89-70 3 vs. Colorado
S.Diego 88-71 3 vs. Milwaukee
NYM 87-72 3 vs. Florida
Phila. 87-72 3 vs. Washington
Colorado 87-72 3 vs. Arizona

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