Biden Out...For Real!

 First, I refer all to my previous post from last September, "Biden Out", if you haven't already looked upon it. It was a good effort at creative prognostication: I had some things right and some wrong; most notably I never thought President Biden could be convinced that someone else would have a better chance than he to defeat Trump, which was the critical consideration.  Though it would seem at this moment that it is clear which scenario we will have all the way to November, and I certainly don't expect Biden to return to active campaigning for the nomination, it  is still possible for a "Trump Collapse" to occur, for Trump to join Biden on the sidelines, or for "Chaos" to take over the campaign (as it might have done if Crooks' bullet had found its presumed mark, or if the Democrats' attempt to improvise a Harris bandwagon loses its wheels). 

Next, I give full credit to our President for realizing that the dynamics were pushing him inevitably toward dropping out.  The poll numbers did not move immediately after his debate failure, but they were moving, consistently, and his deficit was getting beyond the margin of error.  He commissioned polling on VP Harris to run against Trump, and I'm guessing it was a couple points better than his numbers.  Then, to top it off, he got back out on the campaign trail and immediately came down with Covid, which was being stubborn and which no doubt changes one's mood.  The rebellion of insecure Democratic Congresspeople paused for a few days but was once again mobilizing against his continuing on. In spite of all this, he deserves a huge salute for being willing to do the right thing, and for immediately endorsing his VP. 

There will be a process, and some fool may even stand up to oppose Harris' nomination, but she will get it. There's no time for developing any organized resistance, there's no sign of it yet, and there's no real reason for it.  She can go out and "prosecute the case against Trump" (as everyone has noted, indirectly referring to the prosecutor jobs which made her career) while Biden continues on as President.  I see no chance he will not complete his term unless he has a total physical collapse; he really wants to nail down the end to the carnage in Gaza. 

Initially, she will only get a small bump, if any, but the downward momentum will stop. The campaign will generate a lot of new money, which will make a difference down the road.  I see a lot of potential to bounce right over Trump in the popular vote, though the Electoral College is still going to be a great challenge, and the Senate even more so.  The change will help in particular the desperate effort to get control of the House, the only vestige of Federal power the Democrats are likely to have unless they can defeat Trump. It wouldn't be much, but it would keep some very bad laws from coming into effect.  (If laws even matter, if Trump wins.  I'm trying not to think that way, though, at least today.)

I'd like to see Kamala make a statement Biden was never willing to make (though some falsely accused him of saying it) and announce that she would only serve the one term from 2025-2029.  That would first of all ensure that those hungry Democratic governors who were planning to run in 2028 would not make the mistake of challenging her now; it would keep the focus on defeating Trump, and it would put a finite end on the Obama/Biden/Harris succession and provide some fresh air for the future campaign (which would begin in 2025, no doubt). 

Personally, I have been advocating for candidates for President to show a willingness to serve one term only.  The evidence is pretty strong that second-terms bring poor government; the self-limiting nature of such a decision as President Biden has made is a perfect example for the future.  Generally, anyone who wants to be President all that much (as Trump does, frankly to keep himself out of prison) should never be considered. I would support a constitutional amendment to make the Presidency a single term, of five or six years, and further to create a permanent office with significant powers able to investigate any of the branches of the Federal government, independent of the Department of Justice.  (The New FBI?)

This was a tough day for Joe Biden, but a good day for America.  And that means a bad day for Trump-Vance. 

This Is The Day...

 of our maximum discontent.

There is literally nothing I will allow myself to watch tonight, so I have sworn not to turn it on.  (That includes streaming, which I basically don't do anyway.)

Not even the All-Star Game, which in baseball terms is something less than the real thing--that was over a couple nights ago, providing a few moments of relief.  Regular baseball action starts back up tomorrow.   

The Cups--of Europe and of the Western Hemisphere--of soccer have concluded--congratulations to Spain and Argentina.  It was a big test, before the World Cup in 2026, for coaches' ability to put functional teams together.  Some passed the test, others will lose their jobs. 

Wimbledon is over.  Alcaraz established himself as King of the Hill, though there will be a multi-sided effort to dethrone him at the US Open in a couple of months.  Sinner is still the points leader, but Carlos is on the warpath.  On the women's singles side, chaos continues to reign at Wimbledon.  Swiatek hasn't figured the grass out quite yet, and Sabalenka bowed out. The title went to Barbora Krejcikova of Czechia, for her this was not her first chaotic rodeo victory. 

The Olympics - not yet. I'm not so hardcore that I have to watch NBA Summer League. MLS (Major League Soccer) doesn't tend to hold my interest for long. 

And then there's the news, which I am strenuously avoiding, all week.  Not interested in watching the selected Republican bootlickers, nor in seeing the nominee's speech, or the discussion of it before, during, or afterwards.  I am certain that Trump profiled his new con:  pretending to be a normal political candidate in a constitutional republic.  Don't believe it. 

As for President Biden, he took up the challenge to go out on the road and campaign actively for a few days, as I suggested.  The result was Covid, and I am now of the opinion that it is time for him to admit his limitations and bow out of the race (though he does not need to resign his position). He should vigorously endorse his VP Kamala Harris and offer his ongoing counsel to the Democrats, particularly should they win and hold the White House.  With our thanks.  

I have thought a bit about the attempted assassination of Trump over the weekend.  As for the young Republican incel gun nut who shot at him, nicking Trump's ear but killing one in the audience and wounding two others, he was following in the footsteps of other fools who think their act of stochastic violence would provoke a general mass uprising.  It's failed many times before.  Clearly, there was a slip-up by the Secret Service and local authorities allowing someone with a long rifle to post up less than 200 yards from the stage. 

Say, Hey!

The photo here is of the 1964 Strat-o-Matic card for the great baseball star Willie Mays, who died recently at the age of 93.  The card, frankly, was the main way I knew him:  he was playing on the West Coast then, and the Game of the Week (the only game on TV) was usually the Yankees and someone, and the SF Giants came around to Cincinnati (my team) about once a year.  1964 was a very good year for him, near his top (1965 was his second Most Valuable Player year), as he led the league in homers with 47.  His .296 batting average was near his lifetime average.  He was consistently at the top of the league from 1954 (when he returned from military service) until the late '60's.  

We saw more of him later, as he began to decline.  He was in a race with Henry Aaron for the second-most home runs for a while, but he retired and Aaron stayed on for several more years, eventually catching Babe Ruth for the all-time lead.  On the subject of the All-Stars, he was named 20 times to it. Certainly one of the greatest of our lifetimes. 

I will mention here the comedian Bob Newhart, who passed away even more recently at the age of 94.  I remember the early version of him, when he did a sort of nerdy, white-guy stand-up comedy (air-traffic controller sketch?).  What most will remember of him, though, was his starring role in the Bob Newhart Show, much later, when he played a normal guy reacting with good humor to his unusual neighbors (in Maine, was it?). His deadpan, accompanied by laugh track, was a good formula for situation comedy for several years. 

 

 

On the 3-0 and the Lead Pass

That Sports Follow-up I Somewhat Promised

My concern for the Celtics' NBA Finals victory I had predicted was unfounded:  they won comfortably in Game 5 to wrap it up.  Next year will be a whole new thing, as the difficulty of defending the Association title will once again be demonstrated with top teams gearing their rosters to defeat the champions:  Exhibit A, the 76ers signing of Paul George. 

The 3-0 lead the Celtics had over the Mavericks, and the simultaneous 3-0 lead the Florida Panthers had over the Edmonton Oilers in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals, illustrated an interesting phenomenon in modern major sports seven-game series (Major League Baseball's World Series being the other one).  Marketing loves the seven-game series and, from a competitive aspect, it's a valid test for these teams.  The 3-0 lead, though, is bad for ratings. The drama is basically gone, with the final outcome all but assured.  The historic performance of teams down 0-3 is even worse than chance should allow.  Fortunately for ratings, that 3-0-leading team tends to slacken and lose, allowing for at least one more televised game.  I will not draw unseemly conclusions but comment that motivation truly does affect outcomes, and the underdog down 3-0 has strong motivation to avoid the embarrassment of a sweep.  Game 5 usually wraps it up, usually back at the home court of the favored and leading team (as with the Celtics' win), but if they drop that one Game 6 becomes a battle, and Game 7 a war.  Somehow, though, that team that led 3-0 almost always comes out on top (as happened with hockey's Panthers).

I have been loving the Euros, but the Copa America not so much (and not just because of Team USA's first-round flame-out).  It's been all too evident in both tournaments that well-disciplined defensive units can shut down most offensive efforts, and toward the end of the round-robin portion teams had little desire to expose their defenses with much offensive effort.  So my inerest lies in those teams that can rise above, offensively, and especially if they can do it more than just episodically.  Still, it has been the accidental goals, and the desperation ones at the end of game time, that have predominated.  The instinct of defenders to go back to help out when the ball is bouncing around inside the goalie box has been punished frequently.

A little complaint about how these random brackets are working:  The two best teams in the Euros' group stage, Germany and Spain, met yesterday in the quarterfinals.  Two of the three best teams in the Copa America, Brazil and Colombia, were in the same group!  The former produced a fantastic game, worthy of a final, while the Brazil-Colombia game occurred with both teams having clinched success in moving to the next round:  the only incentive was the marginal difference between playing Uruguay and the US-Panama survivor (it turned out to be Panama).*  The two rivals scrapped and kicked each other but did not have the real passion: that will be in their likely semifinal rematch. 

Copa America's tournament rules differ from the Euros' in one important facet--the Western Hemisphere one eschewed the "Extra Time" added on after a tie score in regulation, in favor of going immediately to a penalty kick shootout.  The results showed yesterday, as the Spain-Germany game was dramatically resolved in the final minutes of the 30 minutes of extra time through an sudden, unexpected goal.  The Canada-Venezuela game last night, probably the best so far in the Copa tournament, just went to the loaded-coin flip of penalty kicks, as did the Argentina-Ecuador one.   I preferred the Spain-Germany outcome, but recognize that, too often, the ET play is desultory, exhausted. 

As for the pre-tournament Euro favorites: as I write, exactly halfway through the quarterfinals, England will have to improve its game to defeat  Switzerland, and, in the next round, while France must better its game to defeat Spain. The really interesting game is later today, between Netherlands and Turkey.  The Dutch finished third in their group, and both teams have already raised their play to the level required for the knockout rounds.  

Go Long! 

 In soccer, most passes are directed at a stationary teammate, one with an opening to receive the ball.  The more beautiful passes, though, are to a place where a teammate has not yet arrived.  A stationary pass recipient will not generally have a "look" (as they say in basketball) at the goal, as defenders will move to block that view, or more to the point, the line of a shot toward goal.  The pass to a moving player, though, can create an opening.  It is a fine skill to place the ball where the teammate should be, without using your hands. For me, that aspect is what "the beautiful game" mode of playing soccer is all about. 

 American football's great beauty in modern times is exactly that downfield pass with perfect timing, to catch that moment when the receiver will have a free direct line from the arm of the passer.  In either case it is the dynamism and flow in the lead pass which creates the drama; it also brings more risk, in the sense that a longer pass to a moving player is less sure to end up with its target.  That risk is why soccer coaches love the strategy of playing the ball forward from player to player rather than sending it long and American football coaches like the short "possession" pass or running plays.  But the long bomb is where it's at. .

The long pass in soccer works best when the receiver is unencumbered by a defender; then the receiver can bring it down or under control, ideally right in stride.  When it's contested on the receiving end, though, then it becomes a physical battle to meet the ball with the head.  That contact usually will send the ball away from the receiver and defender, so the skill is to direct the ball so a teammate can get "the second ball'.  Strategies are developed around that combination; I expect soon they will be developed around controlling "the third ball".  

Basketball is another game that combines the fixed point-to-point passing with some of the more dynamic plays (catch and shoot, alley-oop, pick and roll).  Hockey is a game where the players move so fast that the player with the puck must be thinking ahead always, to the next connection, physical contact, or deflection.  Baseball, on the other hand, is more with stationary points and less movement; when it has movement (the play is live) the ball's target is still a stationary one (with the exception of the rare rundown play, and in contrast with the kids' game of kickball, where you can throw out the runner by hitting them with the ball).

We are All Sinners, Now 

Tennis, and some other head-to-head sports, have an opposing method in dynamic passes in play with their rackets (or other tools), which is to send the ball in an arc away from its recipient, such that they can't get at it ("the passing shot"). 

Speaking of tennis, another bracket beef:  in the men's Wimbledon tournament, as with the French Open, the most critical match is likely to be, not the final but the semifinal between #1 seed Jannik Sinner and #3 seed Carlos Alcaraz.  I feel, though I may be proven wrong, that either Sinner or Alcaraz can handle their likely finals opponent, the mighty Novak Djokovic, who is beyond his peak but still able to compel submission from most. 

So why this #1 vs. #3 in the projected semifinal (and the #2 vs. #4--Zverev the #4 seems like a perfect foil for Djokovi in the semis)?  I prefer he NCAA basketball's approach, where #1 is projected against #4 (or #5) and #2 and #3 are set up to battle in the semifinal. 

At any rate, looking ahead to the renewal of the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry, the grass surface of Wimbledon is a good challenge to each.  Sinner has shown remarkable improvement over the last 18 months to reach the top ranking, but despite that success he is only on par with prodigious Djokovic and prodigal Alcaraz.  I will be rooting for the Northern Italian, but I have to admire the variety of Alcaraz and his sunny disposition.  They appear to be embarked on a lengthy, profitable contestation; I hope so for the sake of us all. 

P.S.  The Netherlands-Turkiye game was all that I hoped for.  I will be rooting for the Dutch over England--which showed its character for about 5 minutes when behind but still seem less than present--and for Spain over France--which has looked just as listless as England.  And for Colombia, to top both Brazil/Uruguay and Argentina.

Official reminder that the Paris Olympics will start soon!  I will be a consumer and not a predictor.

*Not to disrespect Uruguay's team, and they may well defeat Brazil. * However, neither team was subject to the real penalty, which would have been to move over to the Argentina bracket.

Now, More Leisurely

Fearless. No panic here.  And I object to the term "bed-wetting"--find another term, preferably a one-word one already in the language.  I'm not going to help you. 

We are now, most likely, in the "Biden Weakened" scenario I covered back in September.  We are not yet in the "Biden Out" one.  And there is still a chance opinion will snap back magnetically to its poles, a reversion to the "Status Quo" of a 49-47 race, pick your leader. *  In fact, it's unclear whether we've moved from that in the general polling horserace question; the results so far are mixed, but with concerning signals from swing states.

Examining that data, leaked via Puck from a polling report done for a Biden PAC,  I will explain exactly what happened from the debate.  The document shows a comparison of answers, from May to post-debate, to the question whether

 "Biden should step aside and suspend his campaign so a different Democrat can
run against Donald Trump"

vs. the opposite, that he should continue.  That went from 43-38-19 (step aside-continue-not sure) to 52-32-16.  That tracks to 9 of the previous 19% "Not Sure" moving to "Step Aside" and 6 of the previous 38% "Continue" moving to "Not sure".  Count me as among those 6%. 

"I...Finally...Beat...Medicare"

Yes, I was one of those 60 million or so who witnessed live (on TV) those immortal words. Actually, I do know what he meant,++ but that's a different discussion.  His performance that night was, in a word, pitiful.  It was really that bad, from the opening hoarse cough to the failed opportunity in his closing, when he mumbled statistics of achievements instead of offering a vision for the future.  He seemed to be a case of too much cramming of information and too little meditation or sleep.  Or the wrong medication, of course--he did have that strange look in his eyes.

But I also mean that word "pitiful" in the sense that I have pity for him.  First of all, with regard to the alleged jet-lag, I am sympathetic, having just gone through it. Your rhythms are disrupted due to transoceanic travel, and they don't necessarily respond the way you want.  When you get older, the things that go first are recovery and stamina--that's authoritative from me.  Second, there is the fact that this is the hardest job in the world, requiring the most of the office-holder, but giving them overwhelming power and responsibility.  There is no way around this fact, for the present.  He has done four years, and should be able to cheerfully go off into the sunset ("Silver Rider").  Things can go quickly, at that age, but I'm not convinced that has happened.

The reason he has not even fully considered the thought is the monster who was across the stage from him, who was busy saying monstrous things while trying not to appear quite as monstrous, this time. I briefly considered Trump's implied offer when he said, in effect, "the only reason I am running at all is because he (Biden) has done so badly".  Does he mean that he would drop out of the race, if only Biden would?  Then I realized:  Trump has to run, and win, or go to prison after the election. So, that wouldn't work. 

The third reason I pity him is that now, after this debate, he must go out on the campaign trail, in a serious way (my wife sagely recommends Townhalls, in which he has done well) for days, or at least a week or so, in which he will be examined microscopically.  As Speaker Pelosi said, it's now fair game.   After that, with additional data, he can make the considered, unhurried decision:  do I want to go through 3+ more months of this?  I will live with that decision. 

The deadline, apparently, is a few days before the party's National Committee has scheduled a "meeting" later this month to "nominate" Biden, so that he will be on the ticket in Ohio.  If they don't do it by some date, one that is before the convention which would formally nominate him, then there will not be the Democratic nominee on the ballot in Ohio, an unacceptable result (even to Sherrod Brown, who once again has the challenge of his career to hold the seat).   So, this was already set, a moment that could be decisive, though it was supposed to be a formality (like January 6, 2021, say).   

I will say right now that I hope that Biden is up to the challenge, takes it head on, and wins.  If he decides, after a few days of doing it, that he can not keep on doing that for 3+ more months, I hope that he suspends his campaign and endorses VP Kamala Harris to lead the ticket.  Others can throw their hats into the ring, but I'm OK with a quick, decisive outcome (and someone like Secy. Buttigieg as the VP nominee, Harris willing).  All those Democratic Governors can continue to work on how to take the country forward for their 2028 campaigns, which is what they have already been doing. 

*I estimated the probabilities of the seven scenarios just in April as: 

1-Trump Collapse - 30%, 2- Biden Weakened 5%; 3-Chaos - 10%; 4/5/6 Trump/Biden/Both Out - 5%; 7 - "Status Quo" 50% . 

But  at this moment I would say: 

        1 - 5%;  2- 50%; 3- 10%; 4, 6  <1%; 5 - (Biden Out) - 20%; Status Quo 15%.   

The scenario in which we are currently residing is probably the worst for the Democrats' chances in the election, from top to bottom. 

++He was talking about defeating the entrenched bureaucracy around Medicare to lower the cost of insulin.  You're welcome.

Somewhat Rushed Sports Update

 What's the hurry?  I want to get this out before the most critical game in the NBA playoffs is completed.   Basically, they have gone along the lines that I forecast up until now:  the Celtics seemed cruising over a Mavericks team that was the survivor of the chaotic Western Conference playoffs (chaotic, once Minnesota defeated Denver in the Conference semis).  

The Celtics, up 3-0 on the road, got crushed by the Mavericks in Game 4.  Nothing to unusual in itself, one team had much more motivation, there's a lot of it going around (see NHL Stanley Cup Finals).  But something about the way the Mavericks won suggested they were finding the form, based around extraordinary performances from both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving every night, that got them through the West.  

The Celtics could scratch that idea, with one big effort at home tonight.  This is their chance--they have been so close before.  If they fail to take the chance, Game 6 back in Dallas looks shaky, and the Celtics would be then under huge "don't choke" pressure in Game 7.  I have heard that the Celtics are throwing their strategic reserve into the fray--Kristaps Porzingis, whose legs are shaky, but whose shot gives them a fourth option that is nearly unstoppable. 

Not too many of these games remain close throughout.  The classic Celtics clincher back in the day was a run in the late 3rd-quarter to give them a commanding lead.  I will be looking for that, a sign that this time's team is worthy to raise its championship banner next to all those old ones.

The Euros 

If I disrespected the quality of the UEFA Championships (European national soccer teams) before, I should retract it.  The competition brings together all the top teams except Brazil and Argentina (for once, no major omissions in the lineup), with most top players present, and it looks quite open.  France and England are the two betting favorites, though their history in the Euros is not all that great.  Both got 1-0 wins in their first game of group play that were not so overwhelming (though their scoring held down by  game challengers). Spain, Italy, and Germany all showed they are ready in their games, and Portugal (the one major team that has not yet taken the field) is supposed to have the highest-rated squad of all. I'm expecting a high-quality set of games from the quarterfinals on, with the occasional surprise showing the depth of the field. 

Such was the case in today's upset of #2-seeded Belgium by Slovakia.  It was both legitimate and fortunate:  Belgium's Romelu Lukaku, one of the top center forwards of this century, netted twice, seeming to break his longstanding misfortunes in the big games for Belgium, but both were waved off after detailed replay analysis.  Whether Belgium can qualify for the next round might provide a little interest, but what will take over now is analyzing the varieties of how outcomes might affect which teams will face off in the round of 16.  

Baseball

My preseason analysis does not look so good at this point.  The most egregious error was omitting the Mariners, who have opened a good-sized lead over the division's two obvious playoff contenders, the Astros and the defending champion Rangers, both of which are going to have to improve even to make it to wild-card spots.  The second-worst error was disrespecting the Orioles, who have impressed all.   

The cutoff point for the AL third wild-card spot looks like it will be a few games over .500, something like 85 wins.  Right now, there's a clear division between those in and out at that percentage win rate, though there's several teams just below .500, each of which will have to decide whether to go for it at the trade deadline, coming soon.   In the NL, the cutoff will be right at or just below .500, I think, with a whole bunch of teams contending for two spots.  The Reds are among them; they still haven't made the move to acquire a veteran starter of quality, which they will need to do if they want to make it in, and compete within, this year's playoffs.  

As always, I live in fear of another Yankees-Dodgers World Series, this year much more likely than it has been for a decade or more. 

 

 

A Few Outlandish Proposals to Solve Our Problems

 Some ideas I haven't heard suggested lately, and I would like to know why.  Please advise. 

 For Charity's Sake

Contributions to approved charitable and religious institutions should be deductible for those who use the standard deduction, in other words a deduction on top of the regular one.  It is clear that one of the effects of the increased deduction from the Tax Scam Act from the Trump Administration was to reduce smaller-scale contributions from the masses--the big ticket guys had their deduction protected.  Non-profits are suffering as a result.  Smaller contributions are what broaden the public support for these organizations in their missions.  The reduced response rate for mail and email that has resulted make the economics much more difficult.   Ask any financial officer for a nonprofit, and they will tell you.

Yes, there is a big Federal budget deficit, which makes it difficult politically to propose something which reduces government revenue.  It's not that big a difference, though; I would estimate at most about $100 billion a year, which could be covered with an increase in the tax rate for billionaires (which is itself not as huge an effect as one might imagine).   This is a change which Republicans, who have always promoted the non-governmental sources of aid for the needy (at least pre-Trump), could get behind, as well.

The '68 Thang

I will admit there are some clear parallels between the chaotic 1968 electoral environment and this year's one.  In particular, the rebellion among the youth to what they perceive is a lack of a viable choice in the two party nominees, the antiwar movement, a Cold War-type foreign affairs situation with Russia threatening Europe, a Democratic incumbent who fails to convince and the Republican challenger who is well-known, untrustworthy, but politically potent.  

We must learn from history and elect Humphrey, not Nixon, this time.

 Do not let the tragedy of '68 become the farce of '24.

For the Intractable Middle East

As we bring aid to Gazans with this new proposed port, we should take some people out who want to go to live in the West Bank.  I read of a perfectly nice Palestinian settlement that needs people (Rawabi)  Of course, the Gazan evacuees need to be vetted (Israeli checkpoints) and have a clean record.  Families preferred. 

Israel should accept any offer of a ceasefire of indeterminate length, not just the short time needed to exchange hostages, furnish emergency aid, etc. Any such deal which gets all the hostages out is a win.   Israel would maintain Gaza locked-down (hopefully helping with the above evacuation, but that would need a new government), and breaking the truce would be a fool's mission:  Hamas would do it anyway, but probably not right away.  Israel could use the time to get a new plan; right now they haven't a clue what to do.  Maybe have an election?

The ME/NE Option

Winner-take-all Is the Enemy....

It's unfortunate no one in New Mexico listened to my suggestion that we consider going the Maine/Nebraska route in '24.  Each of those states has one district very much out of line with the state as a whole.  To preserve domestic harmony (as relates the Presidential election in far-off Washington, D.C.), they agree to allocate their Electoral vote winners at a Congressional district level (with two for the statewide at-large winner), even though there's a fair likelihood that that district will go against the state as a whole, losing a vote for the winning side.  

Now, in Nebraska, there is a move to cancel that law, and to vote all the state's electors as one.  The first attempt failed, but there is a second afoot.  Maine has countered with a law proposed to counter whatever Nebraska does.   

What I argued was that there was an opportunity for New Mexico, equally far from the Federal overreach in our ranch, to grab some of that attention.  In particular, it would be the 2nd Congressional District's time to shine. It's inconspicuous, on the border with Mexico but not an area with border fence nor migrant crisis--with a very close vote likely on the Presidential election.  

This change would not be in Biden's favor, as the risk in the one district would be much higher than that of losing five Electoral Votes statewide,  so why take the risk? The answers are two:  one is to increase democratic participation, which would gain the area more attention to its needs; the second is to increase  turnout in that district, one of the most at-risk Democratic holds in all House races in the country.  

The counter, of course, is the nightmare scenario where the change comes in NM and goes badly, or instead, if NE-2 doesn't come through for Biden, and he ends up at 269.  Which is a loss.   

There are such scenarios, but they are no more probable than a host of other numeric outcomes, once we consider that the Electoral College vote is a throw of crooked dice. It's  a random walk from the starting point of 303-235 that is the 2024 (post-Census reallocation) version of the 306-232 of 2020 and the same electoral result of 2016. Prove to me that any predicted outcome is more likely than that. 

Home Health Care - I still think President Biden should announce the establishment of a Federal showcase educational institution to train home health care workers. 

 In Florida.  It's not too late--there is something to gain, as the repulsive Rick Scott is an attractive target for the diverse opposition, and maybe they finally have a decent candidate to oppose him.  Florida is one of the best Democratic states to target an upset, after North Carolina. 

Immigration: Finally, the long-term solution to the immigration/Southern border migrant challenge:  move the critical decision point away from the border, into Mexico.  The US pays for land, building housing for temporary residence of applicants, does a major airport upgrade and employs both locals and US Border people to screen people who arrive at a safe point, under controlled conditions.  Then, if their application is acceptable, they stay while their transfer is finalized (which is done through air traffic).   If they are turned away, train fare to the coast of their choice to be deported. 

This is a big-ticket deal to be negotiated with Mexico, but as allies and friends.  I think we have the best chance for that, ever, with President Sheinbaum.  It does seem expensive, but think of how much we spend today--this is a chance to displace that expense and thereby reduce it and remove it as a domestic political problem.  We need to see it as our local version of a global problem with increasing peril for our stability Like climate change, and it is closely related. 

I'm thinking somewhere like Monterrey, but I don't know.   Correct me and propose some other location. 

Social Security:  Just don't cap the contribution at any income level.  That cap makes today's tax regressive. 

 That fixes it, but I do have a cockamamey idea that could help:  Those who have sufficient resources can make an irrevocable* decision to give up their payments, in return for which they get land.  The land would be from Federal land, like BLM, or forest, and they would receive to a measure commensurate with their contribution history.  There would be various covenants on the land thus received, that would survive the recipient to their heirs and be binding on those who purchase it.   The recipient gets, effectively, a title and a badge.  And any net revenue from the management of the land.   

What's the point?  Broaden ownership of protected land getting better management, save payout expense on people who don't need it. A legacy, like the old stakeholders.  An example of "less government" that the Democrats could support.  

*  Of course, like an airline flight, you can make changes, but there's a penalty.  I actually think Medicare and Social Security work extremely well. 

Finally!

 I'm in the middle of a long, busy trip to various locations in Asia and North America, but I feel I must make an immediate comment on the guilty verdict in Trump's New York case. 

I have heard several commentators in the wake of the verdict express sadness, or citing others' anger, in his case.  I feel differently--I was sad and angry when he was elected in 2016, but now I feel hopeful and relieved. 

As one who lived in New York in the '80's and '90's, I have known his character for decades.  He is a lying, conniving, corrupt con man with a loose regard for the law but plenty of money to buy lawyers and evade accountability.  This is far from the worst crime he has committed, but this is the one that finally caught up with him. 

For that I have to thank New York DA Alvin Bragg and his prosecutorial team, Judge Merchand, and the 12 jurors who dared to ignore Trump's attempts to intimidate. 

It was our national shame that he was ever elected in 2016--this cover-up for which he has just been convicted contributed to that disaster for our nation.  He was a terrible President, displaying his ignorance, bigotry, poor management skills, and lack of any perspective beyond his own self-interest.  I can hope this conviction may contribute to his defeat this November.  I do not expect him to ever spend a day in prison, even if some of the three more serious criminal trials, for which he has so far evaded prosecution, lead to convictions.  My expectation is that he will ultimately be bankrupted and will die in exile in one of those authoritarian, fascistic countries that he has befriended. 

He is far from an innocent man. He is just a man, of low morals, ugly disposition, and traitorous and dishonest impulses. I wish him nothing but ill.

Part III: Domestic

 

 Fraud

 In my opinion, it is the greatest current threat to (American) quality of life, and I write it in when I am polled for my opinion of the most salient issue.  

The icon of fraud is Donald Trump, who is fraudulent in most any way that can be described.  Liar, con man,pretender, and falsifier of documents, tax returns, charitable contributions--can't think of more offhand, but I would add his relations with his wives, ex-wives, and sexual targets.

I can't blame it all on him, but there are frauds arising in all sorts of activity, new ones all the time.  The most outrageous one I heard about recently regards the new credit card initiative for "Tap and Pay" on their cards.  I was opposed to that already--it's too easy to buy things, why make it more easy and less controlled?  So, the way this works is some fraudster approaches, too close, to your wallet with your Tap and Pay card; they have a POS device (Point of Sale, not the other meaning) concealed in their coat pocket, and they activate it against your nearby card.  Not for big purchases, there's a max, without PIN or signature of $50 or less, but they could do it against multiple cards, and you wouldn't even know it happened. 

A few years ago, the hottest fraud play, producing billions of ill-gotten gains a year, involved the creation of fake identities, carefully built with real credit bureau records.   The attack involved taking several loans or balance transfers, then suddenly disappearing without a trace.   Nowadays, what I see, apart from the obvious and frequent spam attacks, are clever imitations of the real relationships people have which are used to elicit voluntary payment or authorizations.  The Nigerian scam 2.0. 

These threats are the reason why you have to get a second verification after you put in your PIN or password, every time you use a new device, or the same device from a new location.  They are driving restraint of legitimate activity. Financial institutions cooperate in tracking down and fighting fraudsters, but it isn't enough.  It is one area where national interests coincide globally and government agencies need to expend real effort. 

Trial and Election Update

Speaking of defrauding the public, how about that Truth Social IPO?  Totally legal theft from the easily gulled. Big meme, not funny.  All to finance the continuation of the con in Trump's courtroom struggles. People focus on the delays, which are many, but Trump continues to lose. He still has a chance to win big, if he can somehow convince enough voters in the swing states to bring it home, though time does not appear to be on his side for that outcome.  

Of the different scenarios discussed previously, I'd rate the probabilities as follows:  Status Quo 50%, Trump Collapse 30%, Chaos 10%, Biden Weakened 5%, and all the Trump/Biden Out combinations 5%. 

Briefly,  if I didn't know that Trump realizes he is doomed if he loses the election, I would say that he is defying his very astute advisers and trying to lose it, with some of the things he's said.  I'd like to get the odds on exile for the would-be Once and Future King, as that's where I think it will go in the end, if he should live so long. 

I don't blame him for falling asleep during the voir dire of jury selection.  Having been on a couple of panels (and juries) myself, it is the most boring thing, though very important for the lawyers for both sides to pay close attention. 

Speaking of trials not happening (the other three), how about the "solemn consideration" Sen. McConnell wished for the Mayorkas impeachment.  After due consideration, it was rejected, accurately, as a "piece of crap" by some unnamed Democratic Congressperson.  Not just any piece, though:  a particular stinky piece of textual diarrhea.  There was a point, though:  the intention is to devalue the impeachments of Trump during his administration.  It didn't work, though. 

Covid

 Remember that?  It shouldn't be too hard, as it's still around.  Some folks seem to have nostalgic amnesia about the 2020 debacle presided over by our 45th, and disgraced, former President. 

Finally

 A bit over the top, some lyrics to a song by a beautiful, mournful group called Low (also covered by Robert Plant).  I dedicate them (with a change in the pronoun following The Great Destroyer), to Joseph Biden.  RIP, Mimi Parker!

At times I see you
You silver rider
Sometimes your voice is not enough

Your face in windows
Outside forever
Nobody dreamed you'd save the world
Nobody dreamed you'd save the world

La la la la etc

The march is over
The great destroyer
he passes through you like a knife

Oh take me with you
You silver rider
Sometimes you voice is not enough
Sometimes your voice is not enough

I should explain briefly this oblique reference.  Joe Biden is an unlikely choice as a superhero, though his opponent fits the role of a master villain, like in Batman, Dick Tracy, or Bond.  I'd say his moniker would be Ass-Face DickHead.    Anyway, it is barely an exaggeration to say that Biden must save the world from this great destroyer.  Not just our fragile democracy, those acclaimed checks and balances, but also globally:  the danger of global conflict, the end to serious efforts to control climate change, and more. 

 

 

Part II: The International One

 Chuck, Well-done! 

I salute Sen. Majority Leader Schumer in his call for new elections in Israel. 

 I respond to those who object to interference in another nation's affairs by pointing to interference in past political affairs here by the same unprincipled man now heading Israel's government. The extremist nature of Netanyahu's coalition is temporarily overshadowed only by the necessities of active warfare, but the conduct of neither does honor to Israel.   They take their cues from us, or vice versa; we need to seek what's right from one of our closest allies to be true to ourselves.

There is also the fact that Schumer--to be plain-spoken about it, a classic New York Jewish politician--is the one to make the call. If friends can't call friends, who can they call? Schumer's loyalty to Israel over the years, through thick and thin, is unquestionable by anyone of any stripe. 

Is anyone in Israel listening?  I think the answer is 'Yes'.  For one thing, they know that President Biden, who is playing this very cagily, could have stopped Schumer from making the statement at this time. His response upon receiving prior notification appears to have been, "Go ahead.  Knock yourself out."  (Schumer taking that as permission...)

I have only one question:  To whom is this call addressed?  Did he miss the Benny Gantz visit?  Was he the only one who did (besides Biden, who dodged it)?  In my view, the intended recipients are Schumer's contacts among Likud, who are "ghosting" that call for now.  One more humanitarian disaster is still required. 

I heard the contours of the newly-proposed deal reported tonight.  These seem more reasonable for a partial hostage release and six-week ceasefire, with the threat of an (approved) Rafah offensive by Israel, accompanied by some (panic) evacuations of civilians hanging over the head if Hamas doesn't take it.  I think Hamas will do so, once the appropriate ratio of prison release is determined (somewhere around 20:1 has been empirically observed, so far, in deaths; that provides a rough estimate). 

If the Hamas counter-offer after temporary ceasefire is release of all hostages for permanent ceasefire, Israel should take it, even if the terms require relaxation of the current siege. (This Netanyahu government wouldn't take it, of course, either way.  Thus the Schumer ask.)  When and if Hamas violated the ceasefire again, Israel could continue the liquidation campaign, and they would have the hostage situation finally ended.  That is why Hamas will never release all the hostages they control.  

The outcome obtained by Israel so far is the middle result:  not the complete removal of the Hamas leadership, which was the stated war aim, but more than the minimal one of making Northern Gaza into a buffer zone, buying critical moments of time for their defense against future launched attacks from Gaza. Effectively, they have a siege around the remaining parts of Hamas-dominated Gaza, as long as the Rafah border with Egypt holds.   

My conclusion, and Schumer's, is that there is no way forward, no partners for enduring peace. Time to shake things up, politically.  What he really is looking forward to is a parliamentary coup, a change in authority, with Netanyahu out as PM, but it is slightly more diplomatic to ask for new elections, which if they occurred, would produce the desired result, but much too slowly.  (Schumer also called for changes in the West Bank and in Gaza.)  Gantz' message is that he would still need to liquidate Hamas if he were to lead the government.  

Ukraine Slava!

Winter in the plains of Ukraine is no time for heavy ground maneuvers.  There has been a season of hunkering down, while the Russian artillery and missiles faced less defensive interception or retaliatory strikes. That period has to end soon; the clock is ticking.  Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to find the formula to allow the foreign aid bill to get approval without doing anything.  Very laissez-faire! Doesn't quite get 'er done, though...

Europe is filling in, for the moment.  Even the rightists are seeing the light, as Hungary approves Sweden's joining NATO and Georgia Meloni's far-right Italian government is fully backing Ukraine's cause.

Immigration

If you think this belongs in the forthcoming domestic affairs post, I choose to differ.  Migration is a worldwide problem, and the global nature of the challenge is beginning to be felt more acutely on our southern border now--before, it seemed just a hemispheric problem (which it is, also).  I do think there is a hemispheric solution to the problem, one that requires active participation with Mexico for mutual benefit.  It would look like massive expansion of a US consulate in one of the northern Mexican cities, Monterrey, maybe. There is precedent for that kind of cooperation, but it's the kind of idea that doesn't get traction.  The only kind of workable solution moves the problem off our shore/border, but we pay for (cheaper) services in the chosen focus location.  

 

 

Viewing The Trumpian Menace from the Outside

Any sensible foreign government should have considered both of the two main outcomes of this election and what their national interest should require for each. If one outcome is particularly bad for their country, it only makes sense to do what they can to affect the outcome, only being careful that they not have it backfire and produce a contrary effect. 

For the most part, though, it neither makes sense to commit too much for the Biden win strategy, nor for a Trump one.  Best not to commit.  Thus the Taiwan's election led to a clear status quo outcome, Xi has pulled back a little from his aggressive posture, and the great democracy of Indonesia takes a more studied distance from the pro-Obama Widjojo days. Even Putin knew enough to say he preferred Biden because he is more predictable: unarguable, yet showing respect for the internationally-infamous Drumpfen unpredictability.  Japan, India and Korea seem more concerned with domestic affairs--well, why not?  So are we. 

That seems to be the strategy with regard to mitigating climate change, every nation doing its own thing, the combined effect being neither synergistic nor sufficient. I won't deny progress is being made, both in developing alternative energy sources and in raising awareness.  But the global temperature is progressing on the graph toward the upper-right corner, too, as is the graph of major serious weather events. . 

More elections coming all over, I hear.  In the U.K., the ruling Conservative party is in a position similar to Netanyahu's, with a serious parliamentary drubbing forthcoming when the election is finally called. In England's case, though, there's a statutory requirement that will make it happen this year. It will be interesting to see how the Labour party will change the path, seemingly irreversible, that is steadily moving London away from relevancy.  Argentina threw in its lot with a major shake-up in a Trumpian direction, but that is an extreme reaction with plenty of popular frustration behind it.  

The Summer Olympics

The Paris Olympics will be held this summer, after the Republican convention and before the Democratic one. I am hopeful they will provide a welcome distraction from the political wars. So far, I've heard too little about the preparations for them, either here or there.  I did hear a few sports (softball, baseball among them) are not being retained; I've heard each sport federation is making its own rules on transgendered, I've heard those Russians who haven't failed their drug tests will be competing under the Olympics flag, not their own. That's about it.  I haven't heard much about the USA teams in specific sports.

 I'm very idiosyncratic about this, both a strong supporter of the Olympic ideal and a fervent opponent of the way it is done with all the nationalism, which is contrary to that ideal.  It is possible to make the centralized sport federations able to conduct competition qualification, but the block to that is that the resources would have to be provided by nations, perhaps through the medium of the United Nations.    This will no doubt feature in my upcoming listing of my brilliant ideas so far not picked up by anyone....

The Oscars

A bit of a stretch, I admit, to consider the awards of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, basically a LA.-centered bunch, in the international affairs category.  There were several awards given outside of the US film center, once again--let us not forget the recent-year successes of "Parasite" and "Everything, Everywhere, All at Once"--but the liberal US coastal elite judgments were clearly present. As an electoral body, quite predictable. 

"American Fiction" winning the adapted screenplay suited the self-referential critical Zeitgeist, for sure. So did the award to local comeback hero Robert Downey, Jr. for his role as the McCarthy-ist foil to Oppenheimer, post-bomb.   Above all, note the John & Yoko-inspired animated short winner calling for "Peace Now" (Sean Lennon on the scene)--I preferred the French "Pachyderme", if one wants to go deeper. 

The award for documentary feature to "20 Days in Mariupol" showing the brutality of the war in Ukraine also showed that liberal sensibility, which now increasingly shows some awareness of the world beyond. (My point being that the show tells.)  There was also the Godzilla movie getting the award for effects, the Mayazaki film winning the animated feature, and the four awards to the itinerant sci-fi costume drama "Poor Things", the movie that finally showed what Yorgos Lanthimos could achieve. "Zone of Interest" dominated the foreign film lane, a bit of a ruse for the British production, but it was performed and filmed on location at Auschwitz in the original languages (German, Polish, Yiddish), which is a real credential to be foreign to us.  Finally, I mention "Anatomy of a Fall", the one that got away (likewise, I couldn't catch it at the cine.).

To close, we transition through the shocker highlight of the Oscars' Obit show, the face of Alexei Navalny.  With the eponymous documentary feature of the previous year an Oscars winner, they earned the right. 

Shocking but not surprising, Navalny's death was a challenge to the world, a pure expression of ruthlessness. Navalny will be taking the cherished position in that square of political martyrs that many cities in Russia now have. There are others that are due to have places in this pantheon. But not just yet, it seems:  Putin may have been faking mortal health symptoms.  He has no doubt told his doctors to keep him alive until he can clinch a victory in 2025, though he's not sure which President he has to defeat to do it.  When that doesn't happen, he will wither up and give out.

 

Overly-Delayed Reporting: I

 Part I:  Sports

Pardon my self-indulgence, but I will survey them starting from those in which I'm most interested at this moment.  What will be present is the level of passion in my recounting.

Basketball :  In the NBA, we head toward the real thing.  By that, I mean the playoffs--including even the gimmicky "Play-in" rounds, in which the teams with the 7th to 10th best regular-season records in each Conference have single-game matchups seeking to earn the #7 and #8 seeds in the full-scale best-of-7 playoff rounds.  Those spots--which would then face #2 and #1 in the first round--would not seem so prized, but two recent title winners with large fan bases, large payrolls, and big aspirations to return to the top--the Warriors and Lakers--are likely to occupy spots in those high-pressure Play-in games.  If they were to get through, they would pose a real threat to the teams seeded #1 and #2.  

As things stand now, those top spots are occupied by newcomers to the top echelon; their regular-season performances have been major surprises.  One of these surprises is the Minnesota TimberWolves:  their acquisition at the trade deadline a year ago of 7+-foot Rudy Gobert didn't seem to work out, but this year their Two-Towers-reminiscent frontline (with Karl Anthony Towns--KAT) has worked seamlessly with rising star Anthony Edwards ("Ant-man"), and they have the best road record in the league, itself a promising stat for the playoffs, regardless of whether they end up first in Conference.  The other surprise is the Oklahoma City Thunder, making a return to strength after a decade-long rebuild, starring emerging superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ("SGA") and talented freshman stringbean center Chet Holmgren.*

The discussion so far doesn't even reach to the two most popular choices of analysts to win the West, who are currently sitting at #3 and #4.  The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions, and their combo of Jamal Murray, whose presence made the difference in getting the team over the top, and Nikola Jokic, likely to win his third MVP now and one of the most well-rounded players ever in the game, is unsurpassed in quality and now truly proven.  The LA Clippers, who should finish no worse than their current 4th, no matter how slack some of their regular-season games are, have without doubt the highest-ever quality assemblage of wing talent--Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, James Hardin, and Russell Westbrook, all future Hall-of-Famers--but will it fly?  That's unclear. 

Also unclear are the fates of potential magic combinations fitted together for this season in Dallas (Luka Doncic and Kyre Irving!) and Phoenix (Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal!)  The other two teams in the Conference mix are playoff unknowns like the current top two:  the New Orleans Pelicans overachieved, then they got Zion Williamson back (I just heard him described as "a tank that flies"); the Sacramento Kings have a pairing that has proven strong in Domantas Sabonis and DeAaron Fox, but their sometimes inconsistent play suggests playoff vulnerability.  Bottom Line:  Wide open, once someone can beat the Denver Nuggets. 

The Eastern Conference is different, but interesting in its own way.  There is a clear favorite, the Boston Celtics, who have reached the highest level with their own Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown combo but not won at that level.  This year they added two critical new pieces in point guard Jrue Holliday, who's a top man-to-man defender, and multi-talented big man Kristaps Porzingis.  As long as all four can be on the court together, they are unlikely to lose a series, so we'll see how long that lasts.

The team that looked mostly likely to challenge them, the Philadelphia 76ers, lost the big half of their key pair, Joel Embiid, to a knee injury.  He should be back for the playoffs, but whether he will have the dominant play and the great coordination with scoring point guard Tyrese Maxey seen earlier in the year (Embiid was the leading candidate for MVP then, the team right up there with Boston) is a question mark, as is the team's seeding for the playoffs.  So, the team we should expect to meet the Celtics in the Conference finals is the Milwaukee Bucks, a recent championship team that added the immense talents of Damian Lillard to those of superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo.  They haven't fully meshed yet, but that could still happen in this season's playoffs.  The Miami Heat and their Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo pairing is another proven winner:  they reached the Finals last year.  They will have to knock over a couple of favored squads on the road to make the Conference finals, but they can't be counted out.

Based on improved regular-season performance, either the Knicks or Cavaliers should reasonably hope to make the Eastern Conference semis, but if the 76ers can re-coalesce well, they'll likely grab one of the spots which currently have their name on them. Bottom Line:  I'll go with the chalk:  the healthy Celtics to cruise through the Conference playoffs and outlast whichever Western team survives their side.  

Closing my commentary on the NBA, I will say their marketing is doing just fine.  The "In-season tournament" thing they came up with this year was not as bad as I feared, the key success being their ability to schedule flexibly enough that competing teams' games counted for their regular-season standings (all but the championship game itself), and teams no longer in the tourney carried on more or less normally.  So, rather than detracting from the poor old regular season, they added some interest early in it.  Also, the league is prodding players and coaches to bring their stars out on court more consistently.  I think that particular one will end with more stars' time on court being severely and strategically rationed--more games played, less minutes per game.  Of course, the main thing is the playoffs themselves, and I think the outlook for that is awesome.  

TMB? Still more on basketball, as we must look at their feeder league, a/k/a college basketball. For my money, there is a clearly dominant player, Zach Edey of  Purdue.  At 7-foot-4 with skills, Edey is a giant among mortal hoopsters.  He is a future NBA presence, though success there is far from guaranteed. At present, the Boilermakers are the #1 ranked team, though positions in the top 10 have been very fluid this season.  Some of it is the inconsistency due to the rapid turnover of teams--besides the "one and done" single season for some extremely talented players, a key feature of recent seasons has been the transfer window, allowing players to move between colleges without having to lose a year, and permitting strong college teams to rebuild quickly--but there is also a broadening of the number of powerful teams, with an increased number of upsets by unranked teams.

My personal primary focus in college basketball in 2024, as it is most years, concerns the University of Kentucky Wildcats.  In the words of Elvis Costello, This Year's Model is quite attractive, with talent, skills, and a recently-discovered ability to play defense.  Coach John Calipari has done his usual masterful job harvesting top prospects from around the country who like that team's history of producing great pro basketball players.   (Quick quiz:  How many starring players in the NBA analysis above played for U of K?+)

Although the team's record is not that impressive at 19-8 (compared to something like 25-2 of Purdue or Connecticut), these Wildcats have shown they can defeat anyone on the right day.  They have all the elements to succeed and will win big on their best days, and they even have good free-throw shooting, which always becomes essential to proceed through the tournament. What an NCAA champion has to prove, though, is that they can survive and win somehow on their worst day--they've had a few shocking losses, too. 

If necessary, I could explain at length why I simply have had to be part of  what became Big Blue Nation, uncool and incorrect as that may seem.  But I think the current reality is sufficient justification for my support.

The NCAA tournament will be extremely difficult to handicap, and I'm not ready to do so.  I would say the team I've been most consistently impressed with is Tennessee, though they've had their bad games, too. I haven't yet gotten used to watching women's college basketball, though I recognize that there are incredibly talented athletes there.  Like men's, the women's college game is about organized defense and timely scoring to win close ones, with the coach's influence front and center.

Baseball:   I'm just as excited about the upcoming baseball season as I am about the current hoops one, it's just that I don't have so much to say about the present, which is spring training.  There's plenty of recent past, for which I 'll give some quick takes, and the future pennant races, which are far off at present. 

There are some teams clearly favored to make the playoffs, either as division winner or as wild card (there are now three of each in the playoffs for each league).   Having a bye in the first-round series, as the two division winners with the best records get, has not looked like an advantage against a hot team coming off a winning wild card series, anyway not as often as their regular season advantages would suggest.  The objective, then, is making the playoffs,  anywhere from 1-6 . After that, throwing the dice and winning two or three series beyond are the icing, sprinkles, and ornamental crown on the cake.Wild card expansion has opened up late-season excitement for a lot more teams than previously, so there is benefit.  As a remedy, though, I think they should give greater advantage to the home team in the Divisional Series, which should expand to seven games.

The LA Dodgers are the super team in the re-making, but I don't expect them to look that way early in the season, even with their massive lineup.  They signed the two top free agents, Japanese ballplayers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (best pitcher in the Japanese leagues the last couple of years) and the One and Only Shohei Ohtani.  Ohtani will not be pitching in 2024 but will have this season to exhibit his hitting without any limitations.  As we can look forward to his full-time return to pitching next year, along with that of Dodger stalwart pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, it looks like 2025 could be their breakthrough.  Although they have had great regular-season success, the only year the Dodgers won the World Series title so far this century was the Covid-shortened season of 2020. 

In 2023, the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves were the teams that were supposed to be the best in each league, but they were each knocked aside in short series, with the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks the surprise World Series opponents.  Congratulations to the Rangers for finally getting the title for the first time since the hazy days of the Minnesota Twins and Washington Senators in the Sixties and beyond (literally, a long story).   

As a fan of the Cincinnati Reds (no title since 1990), I am highly enthused by my team's chances to break into the playoffs, which they almost succeeded in doing last year (being edged out in the last week for a wild card spot by the Diamondbacks and Cubs). With the kind of young talent the Reds have, though, making the playoffs this year is just one step up the ladder, without a ceiling in sight.  They made a number of moves in the offseason which shored up their depth, both in the field and on the mound, but they have not (yet) signed the veteran ace starter they will need to compete in the postseason in 2024.  There are some still available--yes, I'm a bit impatient.  Bottom Line:  Teams making the playoffs, from near-certain to wild-ass speculation--Braves, Astros, BlueJays, Rangers, Rays, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Reds, Mets, Yankees, Indians.  Sorry, Orioles, Padres, Cubs, Brewers, Bosox.

Football (a/k/a Soccer):  

It's fair to say that the 2024 season-ending race in the English Premier League should be as exciting as there has been in recent memory.  Yes, there was that incredible result in 2019 when Leicester won as a 100-1 shot, but this looks like three quality teams battering each other all the way to the finish. Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool.  Like in the jousting tourney, if Lancelot, Tristram, and Gawain faced off in a three-way.   

City is the favorite, the world champion club team and defending champ as well, but they are not leading, and they have come up short on a couple of opportunities.  Liverpool is making a mad dash to win all the trophies before their beloved coach Jurgen Klopp moves on after this season.  And Arsenal's young, exciting team looks to exploit the opportunity to reach the top and save their coach's job. 

I see Liverpool having the opportunity to create some space in front of Manchester City by winning their game with them at home on March 10, then maintaining that lead to the end with a favorable schedule.  If they don't do that, perhaps Arsenal, which has the toughest schedule down the stretch and therefore would be least favored of the trio, will do Liverpool a favor on March 27 and make City lose points.  That's what Chelsea did in their games, twice. 

I can be fairly objective,  because my dog is not in this race, really.  Chelsea has suffered, mostly, since the Ukraine War took Russian oligarch owner Roman Abramovich away from his favorite toy. Since then, there has been comparable amounts of money spent under the new ownership, but without comparable success, and the fans are nervous at a second straight finish in the middle of the 20-team table, as they've come to expect a lot. Chelsea has played well at times, particularly against Manchester City, but has come up short against teams that in past years they would defeat.

There is a promising rebuilding effort under veteran coach Mauricio Pochettino around a variety of young players, but whether it will be given time to flourish is unclear, especially because there may be crippling penalties imposed soon for unwise spending in recent years. Bottom Line:  The F.A. Cup is the last chance before Chelsea does something silly like bringing Mourinho back, one last time, so they better win it!

In International soccer, Chelsea's not in it, and I haven't been watching yet.  I'm hoping to see a team other than Real Madrid in the final.  The big event internationally will be the competition in the Olympics in Paris in July.  I will comment more on the Olympics more generally as that event draws night. I am dearly anticipating the Olympics as a global break from political ugliness, which is what it was always meant to be. 

Tennis:  My interest in the tennis tours has a bimodal distribution (two humps).  The first was the opening of the new season and the emergence of the patterns of player performance that come in waves through the year, seen best through the Australian Open, nowadays a fair early test across the board.  The second is the summer, with the French, Wimbledon, and the US Open to climax the season. My takeaways from the early season are as follows:  1) The Aussie showed that  Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek's positions at the top of the rankings are not so secure.  2)   The herd is coming after them, a continuing flow of 18-21 year-olds on both tours armed with all-round games.  Jannik Sinner and Coco Gauff are examples, but not the only ones. 3) Titles, including Grand Slams, are going to be distributed more widely than the domination in recent years by the Big Three in men, or to the currently-reigning queen of the women's tour.  Bottom Line:  Carlos Alcaraz will need to win the US Open to take the top spot, but Djokovic will hold him off one more year.  Swiatek's consistency should keep her on top for the women though she can be outslugged. 

Football (the American kind):  I watched the Super Bowl fairly closely, though not the pregame or halftime shows. The 49ers brought a good game and had chances to win, so one has to credit the KC defense for holding them to field goals at two key moments late.  They gave Pat Mahomes the ball with a chance to win the game; it took overtime, but that is what happens. I think the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift thing is good, clean fun.

Viewed from afar, the key game was the AFC Championship between Mahomes' Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, the top-seeded team in their conference.  I didn't watch it, though. 

I credit the NCAA football poobahs for recognizing the need to expand beyond four for their playoff next time around, as they evolve randomly toward intelligence.  Twelve teams is too many, though, unless they get rid of the odious conference championships, which will not happen.  The correct number is six, or seven, if you want to push it, as the NFL successfully did this year.

 If they had six this year, they wouldn't have had the scandalous results in which undefeated conference champion Florida State was denied a bid--apparently for the irrelevant reason that their quarterback would be injured.  Of course, the Seminoles promptly abandoned ship and were destroyed in their lesser bowl game against an angry, similarly-denied Ohio State.  Oh, some SEC team won again.    

 

*Speaking of talented stringbean rookies, Victor Wembanyama.  His team (the formerly powerful San Antonio Spurs) is going nowhere this season, but one must put him on one's radar for the future.

+ 6.  I easily could have fitted several others in without showing any bias whatsoever.

 

 

To Put it in Terms of D & D

 Donald Trump is Chaotic Evil.  Joe Biden is Lawful Good.  It's as simple as that, really, in our Presidential election this year.  Pick a side in the war.

But is that all there is?  No--there is a lot more involved.  Libertarians, for example, tend to be Chaotic Neutral.  Where do they go, especially those who really want to be more Good? Corporations, and most politicians, are either Lawful Neutral, or if they can be bought, Neutral Neutral.  Some are even Neutral Evil (e.g., Bernie Madoff).  

Nikki Haley's natural consistency is the Lawful Neutral, and her victory  loss in New Hampshire shows she has some appeal to them.  She has shown, however, that she has to preserve her claim to the affection of the Lawful Evil elements of her Party in order to have a chance to defeat the forces of Chaos. 

There's more, as we cover all permutations. Neutral Evil is barely if ever represented in public; it's like the Witch in Hansel and Gretel, or Donald Trump, if you mistakenly go into his dressing room--just don't go there.  Neutral Good may be the most numerous of all, in terms of the American electorate.  Not too interested in which team, not too much involved, but their intentions are benevolent in general. Biden, logically, should win the majority of these folks, and if he can get them to vote, he will win the election.

That's Fine, But What About Me?

There aren't many politicians, or even public figures, who are Chaotic Good, like the character I portray in politics.  Bernie Sanders and his 2016 Presidential campaign comes to mind, and I love him, but I was indulging the pragmatic, rather than maximalist, dimension of my activism too much at the time.  (He wasn't going to win, and his candidacy didn't help Hilary's in her mission to Stop Trump.) Besides, I had a job. 

My ideas at heart are about removing major facades of our political infrastructure for entirely new ones.  These could fairly be called radical, and I wear the label proudly if I am ever asked (which I am not--it's practically a slur, since 1980 anyway).  I could name a couple of musicians who exemplify the characteristics:  Bono, or maybe Bruce Springsteen.  John Lennon.  Among politicians, Jimmy Carter, though his devout Christianity is a little too conventional for me. Nelson Mandela, of course.

Now, is my philosophy rare?  Not at all, Haley, after all, correctly pointed out that the majority of Americans want an option other than Biden v. Trump.  That view is the diametric opposite of today's presumed general election, in other words a very Chaotic Good impulse.  That's the space she's trying to claim, and I respect that.  

As this episode plays out, I am looking for the secret that the Dungeon Master has hidden away.  The Vorpal Weapon that will finally penetrate the Bickhead's defenses (or Dickhead's befences), or alternatively, the Ring of Power that Trump covets.

 

The One and Only

 Spin Uncertainty Despite Certain Outcome

That's quantum mechanics for you.   Check for photo

The primary season will begin and end tomorrow.  The sudden irrelevance of that democratic--even overly democratic--institution came after a rising distrust of the whole partisan system.  R.I.P.?

It's a power game now, as the Trumpites have a real foothold in the government, despite the Democratic President. The stakes are huge:  China, Russia, and even North Korea and Iran are licking their chops at the end of American global leadership they have reason to anticipate. 

The crisis of immigration is just another case in which America--by which I mean, the Federal government of the US--shows the limits of its power.  It's a result of our lawless global political framework (using the term loosely) and the collapse of populous states.  There will be more of them.  

Within the government's limited realm, though, the executive power of the President has only risen since the days of Johnson, Nixon, and the like.  These Presidents may talk about the unlimited nature of Presidential power, but  not about themselves in that role.  Meanwhile, each has looked to expand powers. Congress' moves to limit Presidents fall short repeatedly.  We would be turning loose a monster. 

It's a shame that this New Hampshire Republican primary will be likely the only meaningful decision point before we effectively go into the general election. 

As least as far as the two major parties and the selection of the Presidential candidates.  A lot of interest will then go onto the possibility of third-party alternatives.  The only one that interests me is the one implied by Chris Christie's "failure" to endorse Nikki Haley*. I see him and Liz Cheney deciding to run and get on ballots, most importantly to get into debates (ones Trump would use that excuse to escape).  I'm not sure who gets "on top", though:  I'm thinking Liz, unless Chris goes for the Ozempic soon.  (I apologize for that one.)

RFKJR polling way better than he has any reason to do indicates the range of opportunity that lies out there. His numbers will surely go down, and I doubt he will end up qualifying for any debates, though a Libertarian endorsement could change that.  In the case of Cheney-Christie, though, a few percentage of Republicans, maybe a significant result in a couple of states, could mean the difference. 

Meanwhile, the Democrats

The Biden campaign has badly handled the question of the initial primary.  Now there will be undue attention to how an unauthorized write-in campaign does against a couple of throwaway candidates (Rep. Dean Phillip and the lovely Marianne Williamson).  And the fact that Independents are being furiously wooed (mostly by Democrats) to come out  to defeat the Party of Dickhead can only reduce Democratic turnout.  

The bottom line is that a candidate never wins by refusing to participate in the election. That is a general rule, for my money one that applies even in countries with elections that are truly fixed. And Trump above all knows that first you compete and then complain about the result being fixed. 

This does have a farcical recapitulation of 1968 feeling to me.  Incumbent LBJ withdrew after New Hampshire write-ins that year led Clean Gene McCarthy's quixotic antiwar campaign to finish behind incumbent President Lyndon Johnson by only a small margin.  The war situation is not the same, but there's simmering discontent in the Democratic tent, too.  Unimaginably, there is risk. 

The last third-party run to earn electoral votes electorally was in 1968, after a chaotic series of events.  The person gaining those states, which came short of throwing the election into the House but could well have done so, was George Wallace of Alabama.  (Ross Perot never won any, with a much higher percentage of votes.)  I could see Trump losing a Republican state like Utah, Montana or North Carolina due to a strong third-party run by an establishment Republican ticket running third-party, whether the electoral votes actually accrue to the Cheney-Christie team (Would they/could they then throw their votes to Biden?  Could be historic!) or, more likely, make possible a sneaky Biden win of a state or two not fully expected. 

Biden has made New Hampshire competitive, I daresay. The good news is that Trump's militant anti-Islamic bigotry is making that theoretical run to take Biden on in Michigan very unlikely for him.

*Nikki, nikki tekel upharsin - you have been measured, Nikki, and found wanting.

Nearly at the Precipice

(Not "At the Precipice of ...Anything.")

 

 

Entering 2024, it is clear that we are there, a massive rock formation of dizzying heights and great danger.  But is it below us, this precipitous drop, or is it above, the possibilities before us almost without limit if we can only....?

Here in the Roadrunner State, we can observe the birds scurrying around, trying to stay out of the heat and find safe pickings, while Wile E. Coyote lurks, threatening the worst. We are not at the cliff's edge yet; we know it's there, though.  

The bill being designed supposedly to feed the militaries of Ukraine, of Israel, of East Asia-not-China, has been stalled by the rising border crisis and policy dispute, inflamed by the wave of migrants currently coming in. This still-unnamed compromise bill is a contradiction within itself, Fortress America with regard to the rest of the world's pressure of migration, but paying out to involve ourselves further in foreign struggles and conflicts.  I hold little hope for its passage; meanwhile, what about the bills to fund the government, some of them expiring January 12? 

To take these cases one by one, briefly:  Ukraine must be reinforced and it will be, one way or another--remember Lend-Lease?  or buying on credit?  Aid to Israel has been delayed long enough and, when it comes, and it will, it should not contain lethal offensive weapons.  Call that an attached string if you want; they need to break off the Netanyahu endless offensive, him included.  "Don't change leader in the middle of a war?"  Ask #Neville Chamberlain~:  If the war is not working, change is indicated, and sooner is then better than later. 

Finally, East Asia-not-China:  The aid to Taiwan that must be given should not be a public matter.  Aid to the Philippines, absolutely.  Singapore, you know it.  Even Thailand, if it's not all poured down the maw of corruption. It goes without saying, direct support to Australia, Korea and Japan.  That is plenty.

So, President Biden declares an emergency and uses it to give Ukraine what it needs.  Trump did it to start exuding his Wall.  Sounds like it will be less-than-SOTA*, as our electronics seem behind Russia's hackers.

Election Cliff, Viewed from Afar

Again, because of our peculiar angles of the distant vista, it's hard to say whether it is a drop-off, or a mountain so tall its top is in the clouds.  Clearly there is a Valley that must be crossed--the dangers there are both known and unknown.  On the other side, it is clear the terrain is rugged, jagged rocks poking through the mist, but after that? 

One simple example for our current dilemma:  Is Nikki Haley a step up or a step down? In quality, we're talking about, for a potential Republican nominee.  No doubt she is less evil than Donald Trump; she doesn't present the threat of immediate authoritarian rule. We can probably survive a campaign of Nikki Haley vs. Anyone (probably not Biden, in that case) without going at each others' throats en masse. 

Now, though, that little bit of a chance, which required a) a surprise second place finish in Iowa; b) a narrow victory or loss vs. Trump in New Hampshire; and (most unlikely of them) c) defeating Trump in her home state of South Carolina, well, that chance seems gone forever.  

There is irony in her befuddled mind before answering that challenging question; she didn't just improvise a bunch of nonsense.  What went through her mind were the evasive answers she had given on the question in the past (of which the anonymous questioner was well aware) and how it had to be played for South Carolina.  Yes, still today, in the state of Tim Scott, South Carolina, where she will no doubt be smeared--after she fails to take second in Iowa or win New Hampshire.  Sorry, Nikki! I really wanted you to punch The Dickhead in his blowhole. .  

I'm pretty sure Donald will name his VP fairly early if things go well.  I'm expecting it to be Kristi Noem; he wants a pretty spokesperson while he deals with some of the consequences of his mischievous putsch. Nikki Haley should not be fooling anyone with her pretense of being a possible VP to Trump; she is not under consideration, and she especially would not be if she were successful in her primary challenges.  She would disavow the notion if it didn't potentially decrease her appeal for less-than-fully-committed Trump supporters. 

It's the Economy, And I Guess I'm Stupid

I certainly draw comfort from the confidence Wall Street is showing these days. Is it possible that they don't think that it will matter whether the Democrats or Republicans sweep the table of power in 2024?  I can't believe that, nor do I believe that they know, better than all others, who will win.  And please don't tell me they are comfortable with the chaos Trump's win would produce, or either that they know all will be fine, and he will be defeated through some means. 

Instead, we are seeing the shortest of short-term bets.  Next year will be good.   There will be time to withdraw risk assets before the SHTF.+

I am a stubbornly optimistic person by nature, and with regard to most specific issues.  I always believe there is a way--just ask me.   However, I don't feel so good, even about 2024's domestic economic success forecast.  It is true that we consumers spent like crazy this Christmas, so that would be a boost.  Also, the Fed is done raising, that is clear.  In driving terms, that means they released the pressure of their foot off the brake, which they had been applying steadily. The foot is still there, resting softly on top of the brake pedal, as the regenerative braking (we have the best, modern economists!) kicks in, providing natural slowing, storing energy for a revival, if needed.

My pessimism--or maybe I should just describe it as caution--derives from a weak global economy.  So far, our economy has done well despite the unusual outbreak of war involving European nations**, but there is vulnerability in supply chains which will be exploited at some point.  I see a spotty pattern of growth, with industries like cars, oil, and financials suffering, but some of the big infrastructure and military companies thriving.  The tech stock monsters which powered 2023's market recovery are just about overpriced, as eager competitors will seek to knock away market share, sacrificing profitability.

But What About That Upside? 

There is so much potential for us if we fail to screw it up.  World peace, an end to extreme poverty and inequality, enormous improvements in our quality and duration of life, exploration of the micro- and macro-universes in ways we can barely imagine.  Our pace of progress in human capability has been enormous over the last 300 years and seems in many ways only to be accelerating.

The conversion to renewable energy is moving apace.  I don't expect things like wind, hydrothermal, or the current generation of solar energy to be long-term solutions, but we won't have to go back to oil, even if its cost is reduced further through technological advancement.  Practical fusion is now less than 50 years away for the first time, and other opportunities will present themselves.  Energy is all around us to be harvested.

Somehow, we still seem to be able to produce enough food to feed 8 billion people, even if many live in food insecurity. This may turn out to be the Golden Age of Global Food, but developing more diverse and healthy sources of food locally will be more valuable to society, especially in dealing with the damage to ecosystems that will result from climate change continuing.  

In the long run, I believe there will be a significant change in our procreation and birthing.  It may become necessary, if bad chemicals in our environment endanger successful random mating of sperm and egg.  Then there is the trauma of birthing--there, I said it.  The rise of Caesarans , even if not needed for medical reasons, and the choice of so many young people to delay or forego having children, are clues that change is coming.  I'm not expert enough to predict its form, but it will be somewhere between today's forceps and Huxley's baby factories.  As for mating rituals, they are in constant evolution, but always tend toward the dysfunctional.  That actually might be something that will improve with AI's development.  

The big improvement that will be needed is more within our minds, though.  The animal brain portion we have is not designed to handle well modern stresses and frustrations.  I don't see those distractions decreasing, though; the difference must come from how we deal with them.  In this regard, the progressing legalization of cannabis (it's not just "weed", or "dope" anymore) is a positive sign of our developing capability to adapt our minds.  That underground smoldering burst into our society in the now-mythical Sixties, but it was too much, too soon.  That's not true anymore; many more of us now realize the needs most or all have to take actions specifically to curate their mental health, because we are feeling it ourselves--one perversely positive result of the Covid epidemic 

It starts this year, in 2024, with a definitive defeat of defeatism. Trumpism is a loser, that is clear. The challenge is to prove one's system and way of life better than the authoritarians'; going his way gives up the game. 

Footnotes

#UK PM, May, 1937-May, 1940.  I feel for his suffering descendants.  (Not Wilt? I hear he has many of them.)

*State of the Art.  Should be reduced to a FLA, if it isn't already.  (TLA's are so 2010's!)

+ Shit Hits The Fan.  Useful for any general global apocalypse, without hitting the censors, for now.

**Or extended Europe, if you will (in the FIFA view).