The Bigger Picture

The Carter-Biden Parallels

The Presidential term of each was a moment of respite between periods of Republican mal-administration+.  Neither was ever good enough for all Democrats.  Both were supposed to be transitional toward something better, but ended up giving way to something worse. They were peacetime Presidents, and with Americans focused on domestic difficulty, found their approval levels underwater at the critical time for possible re-election. Both had major legislative achievements, and foreign policy successes, which were dimmed in the public view by electoral defeat.  Both governed as forward-looking moderates, but even that mild liberalism provoked a successful right-wing reaction.

Biden and Carter are truly linked in history.  Biden pointed out the other day that Carter had--recently--thanked him for being the first Senator to endorse him in his 1976 campaign.  (Biden was in his first term then, and not many noticed, but Jimmy did.)  They represent a standard of morality and respect that is rapidly disappearing. 

Biden's interview with the USA Today* is by definition self-serving.  Apart from the requisite bragging on achievements, I note that he failed to mention the mess he dumped on Kamala++, or even to mention her name, I believe. As someone with remarkably broad and lengthy experience, it is far more important to read what he is saying about the world.  He has a clear perception that it has changed, but the vision of what will become is a void. His focus in governing was simply to prepare the US for whatever was to come.

Almost enough about him, though I'm expecting a couple of good deeds from Joe, before he leaves: A  statement that the Equal Rights Amendment has the requisite number of states having ratified, so it should be considered law; Re-Scheduling marijuana (now known as cannabis, for marketing purposes) to make the awkward Federal stance on it less undermining of the rule of law.  

Don't let me down, Joe--I've been one of your great, hidden supporters, when it still counted. And, for the record, I don't blame you (or Kamala) for the electoral defeat.  The blame lies with our inadequately-engaged electorate, and if one insists on a name, RFKJr.

 Let's focus on some things beyond the domestic issues in our swath of land in temperate North America (plus Alaska and Hawaii) and our 4.3% of world citizens. 

 Global Gaslighting

It's so bright, I'd bet the astronauts stuck in the International Space Station can see it from orbit.  The Once and Future King Dickhead I has announced he intends to conquer Greenland and impose his will on the Panama Canal.  No doubt he's been getting briefings again, and then letting his imagination run wild.  Yes, these will be suitable distractions while his brutalist diplomacy produces meager results on the Russia/Ukraine front, or with China, or with Israel.  

I grant that both are strategically important, but we already have a base on Greenland.  We could try to negotiate something with Panama on the operation of the canal in the case of emergencies, but that should be in the form of an agreement, not a purchase or a conquest. It is a good example of Trump's version of deal-making: start with the impossible, whine and bluster a lot, and get something undeserved in the end.

I am expecting Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu to pull the January Surprise gambit, in the mode of Iran and the US hostages back in the days of Carter and Reagan, . I could see him providing Trump with an inauguration-related present of a ceasefire in Gaza.  Hamas seems to be eager to be done with this, so it can heal itself. That may be the remaining issue: Can Hamas be allowed to heal itself?  I know the Palestinian Authority is seeking to show itself worthy of responsibility, but Bibi doesn't trust them, never has and never will. 

In terms of the Israelis' war aims, they achieved part of them, due in particular to their spies who knocked off Hamas' leader two different times and produced incredible acts of sabotage against Hezbollah.  They leveled much of Northern Gaza, maybe not as much as they'd like, but the aim of neutralizing it as a threat is somewhat attained.  Release of the hostages, though, is Bibi's vulnerability, and its continuing lack of resolution further reminds Israelis that it was on his watch they were abducted in the first place.  

Can Netanyahu survive in his job when the ceasefire is declared?  He's successfully building up brownie points with the hawkish Israeli political mood by destroying Hezbollah's leadership and coming out on top of long-distance battles with Iran and the Houthis.  Now he gets to rub it in against near-defenseless Syria in the Golan Heights, and running hundreds of sorties against Syrian weapons facilities.  The reveal on the hostages, when it finally comes, is going to be very rough for his chances, though.

Syria Game-Change

No matter how the new ruling coalition in Damascus turns out, the lightning-fast defeat of Assad's brutal rule over Syria has produced two favorable results.  One is that there is now the possibility of return for the millions of political refugees.  That will be a boon to neighboring Lebanon and Turkey, and also for those who successfully gained refuge throughout Europe and in many corners of the US, giving them a choice and a chance. The second is that Russia got a poke in the eye, a "serious" defeat.  The deep presence of Russia in Syria's horrible recent history goes back all the way to Assad's father's reign, and Russian participation in the war crimes and crimes against humanity of Assad's reign is just a matter of how much can or will be ever be proved. 

The victorious HTS coalition has a clear leader, al-Jolani, who faces a daunting array of challenges. The normal approach for a leader who takes the capital of a riven country is to try to gain control over all of the nation, through any means necessary.  If he pursues that, it may put him in conflict with Turkey, which has sponsored one of the lesser forces in his coalition and has its own objectives. What's worse for him Turkey is also messing with the Kurds in the northeast of the country, who have control over some imprisoned ISIS fighters and over camps of those prisoner's kin. There is also a US contingent with the Kurds-a very volatile situation. As mentioned, Israel has gone beyond the Golan Heights, which they captured back in the day from Syria, and is encroaching further into Syrian territory. Finally, there is the coastal area, which still has a Russian base and is the stronghold of Alawites, the minority group of Assad's clan.  I'd say he needs to find friends, real fast. 

He could still be an upset winner in this competition, along with Syria and other countries in the region, and, so far, Israel as well--in the post-Gaza portion of their multilateral, multi-phase warmaking, at least. On the losing side, more even than the Russians and almost as completely as Assad, is Iran.  In particular, the Revolutionary Guards of Iran and their ambitions in the region.  As with Syria, though, there could be real opportunity for Iran to lower tensions and end the conflict, which has become endemic to much of the region and is now threatening Iran itself. If Trump were to do the unexpected, which he claims is his way, he could make a positive difference, conditionally, in both Syria and Iran, to the discomfort of Putin and Russia. 

But What of Ukraine? . 

Some believe that Trump's imminent arrival in the White House will lead immediately to the settlement and end of the warfare that we all want.  The notion would be that Putin is ready to settle, but he won't do it while Biden is in office, or alternatively, that he is waiting to make the deal with Trump.  I am not one of those people. 

My perception is that, even though Russia's resources are straining, particularly for manpower but also for armaments and willpower, Putin is not yet ready to accept an end to the fighting.  One more season to try to break the losing streak and crush Ukraine, I think is his thinking.  So, the regrets will come from both sides when the deal is finally made.  I'm thinking it will take a few more months, though the boundaries may not be much changed. 

What the US will or won't do for Ukraine under Trump's direction in the meantime will not be so decisive.  What is going to decide this war of attrition is whether Ukraine can hold on, more or less in the current lines, through 2025.  I think Biden's administration will give Ukraine enough of the arms that have proven successful in the current context to make it through this year without losing too much more territory or the key cities of the Eastern part of the country, and then both sides will be exhausted and ready for an armistice, if not a peace settlement.  Personally, I think the fair demands of Ukraine upon Russia are far beyond what merely giving them the assets confiscated from Russia would amount to, and so there may never be a true accord, but the war would cease for the time being.  I hope they prove me wrong, that they demilitarize the Donbas and the land bridge below Kherson that the Russians have taken, while Crimea is demilitarized and original boundaries are restored in other areas, and reparations are begun.  Doesn't seem too likely, does it? 

I'll tackle East Asia next time, and I really have nothing to say about the Southern Hemisphere, except that I will point out, with regard to the "Gulf of America" headfake, that the whole Western Hemisphere is America, not just the US.   If it were renamed with that in mind, I would mind less.  (Does this go for "America First", too?)

 

+  Reagan was perceived as being somewhat better than either Carter or his predecessor Ford; it was not his simplistic political worldview, but better choice in circumstances, tactics and key appointments.  Ford, in retrospect, deserves the same kind of praise that Pence does:  cursed by his partisan history to be boxed into failure, despite acting with virtue. Carter and Biden, cursed by current events.

++Who is looking very good as the current de facto Democratic leader. Until Hakeem gets control of the House.

*Go to your local Gannett newspaper, or to the USA Today.  They can't wait to plug their Exclusive. I do encourage reading it unemotionally.