Trump's Iran Policy

We are now in a spiral of escalation in the Saudi-Iran proxy war.  President Trump's failed policy of aggressive sanctions against Iran has now produced responses that threaten to raise the level of violence.  Can he find the means to keep the US from war?  It seems even he shows reluctance to take that fateful step, of direct attack on Iran, for which we are grateful.

Saudi Arabia has indeed suffered an injury in this case--the attack on the oil field, which was done by targeted missiles, possibly augmented by other fire. Some of the missiles fell short and were not fully exploded; that and the angle implied by the fallen missiles pinpoints the launch near the Iraq-Iran border, and intelligence estimates are fairly clear that Iranian technology has been utilized.

The response has been typical of the subtlety of the Iranian approach.   Responsibility for the attack was immediately claimed by the Houthis, the breakway faction in Yemen which receives some Iranian support in its war against the recognized government "coalition" of foreign forces led by the Saudis. The claim appears spurious on its face, but it helped to distract.

The Iranians, of course, deny responsibility; the science points to the border area.  I'm guessing the Iranians arranged for the attack to be launched from Iraqi territory, by one of the militias, Iraqi in name, over which they exert control. They are probably puzzled that we can't figure that out--maybe we can, but we choose not to reveal that because of the complications that would cause there (near ex-ISIS territory, where there are still US advisors and volatile camp situations).

Now President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif are coming to the US, granted visas for the purpose of attending the UN General Assembly.   This is, of course, a great opportunity to turn the corner and head back toward peace.  I don't expect Trump to meet Rouhani directly, at least until US Secy of State Pompeo and Zarif  have a satisfactory initial, private, meeting.

What's the deal?  Surprisingly straightforward:  Iran back in the nuclear treaty, rapid release of sanctions, no more arms for the Houthis (to "punish" them for the attack on the Saudis).  We can't touch Hezbollah, and nobody gets to Hamas in Gaza, so don't even think about it.   As for Assad and the various forces struggling for power in "his" Syria,  our interest is in the safe areas to be developed near Turkey to allow reintegration of refugees without life-threatening risk, and ensuring no WMD remain in Assad's hands.

All right, have I given you enough?  Go out and make it happen.  President Trump, I will raise your grade from F+ to D-.  A passing grade, in some school systems!