An Open-and-Shut Case

The Democrats in the House will open it, and soon.  But then the Republicans in the Senate will shut it down.

Why are the House Democrats suddenly moving so fast with their "impeachment proceedings"? One simple answer:  Speaker Pelosi has unleashed the caged beasts--it is now OK to be actually "proceeding".   The second is that Trump has gifted his opponents with a superb opportunity, one that forced Pelosi to act.

While the nuances ("quid pro quo" or no? Is there a Biden thing, and does it matter?) remain to be fleshed out, the facts seem clear.  Trump asked for something he should not be requesting, in a manner that is incriminating.  Private citizen/Trump personal attorney Giuliani compounded the legal problem by purporting to act on behalf of the US Government, something illegal for him to do. The decision on this one, for most House Democrats, is going to be way too easy.  And because their votes are not needed, House Republicans will hardly be troubled to vote No. 

This will take it to the Senate, where the Republicans would like to use their majority to quickly vote No and end it, but it will not be so easy.  There will be witnesses who must be heard: Giuliani, Toady Barr (who tried but failed to cover it up), Secretary Pompeo, and the senior people in the State Department who want Pompeo pushed under the bus like the other two lackeys.  One very important witness, especially with regard to the question of the existence of any Senate Republican votes for conviction will be the whistleblower, and the character of that person (as yet unknown), and the manner in which that person's story unfolds. Chief Justice Roberts will be on his best behavior, trying to seem as even-handed as possible.

What kind of defense can the Republican Senate leadership put up?  In a normal trial, it would pretty much be "defense rests"--they'd know they have the votes in the jury to prevent conviction.  This is overtly a political trial, though, and their objectives in the process will be complicated.  They will debate the facts, they will debate whether these rise to "high crimes and misdemeanors", but those are weak arguments, made for the record, that will be discounted.  The main argument will be "I'm running for re-election; why are you wasting my time?   It doesn't mean anything--we were always going to give Ukraine the assistance, just as we are doing. It's just Trump being Trump--who knows why he makes these confused tactical gambits?"

That last part--his total incapacity for the job, his faulty understanding of the laws and the Constitution he is sworn to apply, along with a refusal to learn--must be part of the articles of impeachment in my view.   As for Trump, it is quite interesting to learn now that the White House knew all about this weeks ago, and that his seeming off-the-cuff remarks  recently were just ones hastily prepared by a depleted and discouraged White House staff.  For example, he remarked, "I know, as the President, one has to be careful on the phone.  There are a lot of people listening."  That sounds exactly like what those who attempt to handle him would have told him afterwards.

Though much of this Thing is destined, what bothers me about it is that everyone can now go out and campaign on this imitation of justice, while most of Trump's malfeasances will not be fully exposed  in Congress or before the public.   It's not that there isn't time before the election; it's that most Congresspeople have to go out and raise money for their campaigns.  That's what has to be fixed, and it's a bipartisan problem.