Friday, October 29, 2010

Taking It Back...But How Far Back?

Posted on daily kos this morning.

A Scorecard for 2010 Reaction

How far back will the Tea Party-led Republicans take us? Here are some indicators with which to gauge the undertow from the wave of electoral folly. The higher the score, the further the reversion.

-20 points: The Republicans do NOT take back the House.
-5 points: Fox News can not announce the Republicans will control the House by 12 midnight EDT on Election Night.
+5 points: Boehner will be next Speaker; rise of the House of Orange.
+5 points: Alan Grayson (FL-8) loses to some guy pretending to be Daniel Webster.
+1 point: for every House member over 218 that the Republicans end up with.
+10 points: Russ Feingold loses. We lose our most progressive Senate party member.
+5 points: Joe Sestak falls in Pennsylvania to Wall St. muckymuck Pat Toomey.
+5 points: Michael Bennet falls to church-state separation denier Ken Buck.
+5 points: Rand Paul wins. "Don't Tread on Me" jettisoned as a Tea Party slogan.
+5 points: Alex Sink down the drain to the single most odious major candidate of the year, healthcare fraudster Rick Scott.
+5 points: Barbara Boxer loses to Carly "Outsource" Fiorina.
+20 points: We're bewitched: Christine O'Donnell wins.
+5 points: Sharron "Obtuse" Angle defeats harry Reid.
+25 points: Democrats lose control of the Senate (less than 50 Senators, not counting unreliable Joes Lieberman and Manchin).

We will review the votes of your predictions on Election Eve, then the actual final score (and estimated reversion date) once all the results are in.

Poll: Sherman, set the Way-Back Machine to...
o <0 points: 2012. Let the 21st century finally begin, and bring he/she/it/them on!
o 0-10 points: 2010. We can boldly muddle through this world.
o 11-20 points: 2002--mild nostalgia for Bushite Misrule will be celebrated with the ghost-written book release next week.
o 21-30 points: 1984--the Golden Age of Reaganite Cold War returns. Set the nuclear clock forward to 5 minutes to midnight.
o 31-40 points: 1955--Social wars? Never happened. Sarah Palin will reprise the role of the Attack of the 50-Foot-Woman (apologies, Mother Jones).
o 41-50 points: 1924--Dissipation, corruption, phony Prohibition, Florida real estate scams, gangland violence. What's not to like?
o 51-60 points: 1880--The Gilded age. Robber barons rule again!
o 61-70 points: 1852--Disraeli: Now there's a guy who could confuse voters' class interests.
o 71-80 points: 1500--Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition, least of all those godless Communist Muslims.
o 81-90 points: 476 A.D. The Capitol in flames; barbarians run riot.
o 91-100 points: 8000 B.C. The Long Emergency: Survivalists and hunter-gatherers only at the luncheon counter.
o over 100 points: 1,000,000 B.C. Sarah Palin reprises the role of Loana in animal skins.

(My prediction is a score of +29.)


Chin Shih Tang said...

Details of my predicted score of +29:
-5 for the night's surprise, that control of the House will not be established by midnight (too close, too many close races);
+4 for 222 House Republican seats
in the final tally;
+5 for Boehner being the next Speaker;
+10 for Feingold losing (alas!);
+5 for Rand Paul winning (also);
+5 for Alan Grayson losing FL-8;
and +5 for Sharron Angle defeating Harry Reid--hard to believe. This is really the one real change from my last Senate prediction. I'm shifting that to 54 Democratic caucus seats, or 52 not counting Manchin and Lieberman (the five lost seats being ND, IN, AR, NV, WI).

Chin Shih Tang said...

And, as a further comment, this seems about right (about how far back they will "take it back")--Republicans of almost all stripes have this notion of Reagan and his administration as a Golden Age to which they want to return. Bushite Misrule--not so much, really.

We don't need to go into the reality of Reagan was, vs. the impression Republicans have. The mythical hold on their minds is very real.

Chin Shih Tang said...

So, it was a lot worse than I thought. It's also not over (here at midnight, MDT).

Assuming the Republican gain is +65, to 244 seats, we then have the following point count:

+26 for House seats over 218
+5 Boehner starts House of Orange
+10 Feingold loses (hope you'll be back somehow, Russ);
+5 Grayson loses;
+5 Sestak loses--good try, Joe, don't give up;
+5 Rand Paul wins.

Of the rest, the ones not decided are the fates of Bennet in Colorado and Alex Sink in Florida. Colorado's having trouble with their count, but I'm not confident on it. Sink may still catch Scott, because most of the remaining count is in blue counties, but she has a ways to make up, too.

So far, we've got an estimated 56 points, taking us back to 1880 and the Gilded Age. We may end up over 60 points, taking us to Benjamin Disraeli. By the way, that interval--61-70, and the Age of Disraeli--was the leading vote-getter when I posted the vote on Kos.