tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post346803408076892493..comments2024-03-14T11:27:52.369-06:00Comments on Stoner: Taking It Back...But How Far Back?Chin Shih Tanghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-25421781010165139922010-11-03T00:01:37.987-06:002010-11-03T00:01:37.987-06:00So, it was a lot worse than I thought. It's a...So, it was a lot worse than I thought. It's also not over (here at midnight, MDT). <br /><br />Assuming the Republican gain is +65, to 244 seats, we then have the following point count: <br /><br />+26 for House seats over 218<br />+5 Boehner starts House of Orange<br />+10 Feingold loses (hope you'll be back somehow, Russ);<br />+5 Grayson loses; <br />+5 Sestak loses--good try, Joe, don't give up;<br />+5 Rand Paul wins. <br /><br />Of the rest, the ones not decided are the fates of Bennet in Colorado and Alex Sink in Florida. Colorado's having trouble with their count, but I'm not confident on it. Sink may still catch Scott, because most of the remaining count is in blue counties, but she has a ways to make up, too. <br /><br />So far, we've got an estimated 56 points, taking us back to 1880 and the Gilded Age. We may end up over 60 points, taking us to Benjamin Disraeli. By the way, that interval--61-70, and the Age of Disraeli--was the leading vote-getter when I posted the vote on Kos. <br /><br />Bedtime.Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-66152895188885523482010-10-31T11:44:18.801-06:002010-10-31T11:44:18.801-06:00And, as a further comment, this seems about right ...And, as a further comment, this seems about right (about how far back they will "take it back")--Republicans of almost all stripes have this notion of Reagan and his administration as a Golden Age to which they want to return. Bushite Misrule--not so much, really. <br /><br />We don't need to go into the reality of Reagan was, vs. the impression Republicans have. The mythical hold on their minds is very real.Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-50478599323755470392010-10-31T11:33:50.217-06:002010-10-31T11:33:50.217-06:00Details of my predicted score of +29:
-5 for the n...Details of my predicted score of +29:<br />-5 for the night's surprise, that control of the House will not be established by midnight (too close, too many close races);<br />+4 for 222 House Republican seats<br />in the final tally; <br />+5 for Boehner being the next Speaker;<br />+10 for Feingold losing (alas!);<br />+5 for Rand Paul winning (also);<br />+5 for Alan Grayson losing FL-8;<br />and +5 for Sharron Angle defeating Harry Reid--hard to believe. This is really the one real change from my last Senate prediction. I'm shifting that to 54 Democratic caucus seats, or 52 not counting Manchin and Lieberman (the five lost seats being ND, IN, AR, NV, WI).Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.com