Thursday, April 29, 2010

Crist Rises from the Dead?

Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced today he would escape from a doomed Republican campaign against Tea-bagger favorite Marco Rubio and run as an independent.

His decision raises marginally the chances of something other than a Republican victory (maybe from 5% to 20%), but, more significantly, it will absorb the media focus as the highlighted race of the year. This should allow Majority Leader Harry Reid to consolidate his chances against a ditzy Republican challenger and hold onto his seat in Nevada.

My forecast--not really changed from my prior analysis, but starting to firm up a bit--is for the Democrats to hold 54-55 seats (with Sanders, not counting Lieberman) coming out of the 2010 elections.

(For those who want specifics, of the most closely contested races, I'm looking for Dems to win in Nevada, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and one or two of these three: New Hampshire, Colorado, and Ohio.)

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