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Friday, August 29, 2008

McCain Shocker: Results on Rasmussen, CNN Markets

On Rasmussen Markets, I lost more for my bets on Crist (early and often), Pawlenty, and the others (really early, no one buying to sell to) than I gained on my correct "None of the Above" bet on "Field":
Name
Position Avg Cost Current Profit or Loss

NEW.REP.VP.CRIST +140 7.3 0.5 -167.30


NEW.REP.VP.PAWLENTY +10 21.5 0.7 -20.80


NEW.REP.VP.PORTMAN +20 8.4 0.4 -16.10


2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee
2008.REP.VP.PAWLENTY +10 24.5 0.6 2.80


2008.REP.VP.BUSH(J) +5 2.1 0.2 -0.95


2008.REP.VP.STEELE +10 1.1 0.1 -1.00


2008.REP.VP.FIELD +10 17.5 98.5 60.80




As for CNN, I won big betting against Romney (and others, like George Allen!) and for "None of the Above". I lost some on Crist, but nothing compared to what I won, vaulting back into the top 10% of traders.

The late trading on Palin on the Rasmussen new market (set up in May, whereas the original market had been set up in January or something and didn't include Palin among candidates) is quite interesting. She had closed at 8 (or 8%) last night. At 12:40 this morning suddenly her number took off, all the way to 80 (some smart cookies had left high-priced sell bids out there) when the rumor hit. There was some countering activity, but by an hour later the price was up to the 90's and stayed there.

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