Obama: Must we Now?

I am buying into the logic of conventional punditry that the Democratic nomination campaign will end up boiling down to an attempt to Stop Hillary. Barack Obama may be stuck with the reductionist role of leadership of anti-HRC forces whether he likes it or not, his only other choice being to withdraw.

Personally, I'm not sold on the idea that we need to Stop Hillary, certainly not in the sense that we as a nation desperately needed someone to Stop Dubya. The main fear I have of a Hillary Clinton Presidency is that it may encourage Jeb Bush to think that US isn't as tired of the Clinton-Bush dynasty as it is, and that he'd then run in 2012. At a minimum, that would be terribly demoralizing to those Americans who believe that we still have a republic and not a monarchy or imperium.

Perhaps you can see from that last paragraph that I do not believe that 2008 will necessarily be the last word or even the climactic battle in the political struggle for control. If 2004 was the last, necessary version of the 1968 election, and 2006 was progress all the way to 1974, then it follows that, like 1976, 2008 could be perceived as the critical election throughout the whole campaign, and then be superseded four years later by the true crux of the period (which, if you're following, was the 1980 election between Carter, Reagan, and John Anderson). The fact that the President inaugurated in 2009 is likely to have a combination of lousy circumstances (bad Iraq, Iran, Israel/Palestine situations abroad; a faltering economy at home) when he/she takes the oath of office could mean the post is poisoned, short-term. So, missing out in 2008 might end up being good strategy, totally by accident.

Back to '08, I'm pretty sure that Leader of Anti-HRC Forces is not the role Obama would prefer, but we will see if it is one he can portray effectively. If he can combine with John Edwards at some point, the two of them would make a strong blocking force, one that would attract most of the left wing (even the 1% of hardcore Kucinich backers, if he chose to go that way). I would think that endorsement from Al Gore would come at some point and provide an additional boost. I'm still not sure it would be nearly enough, even to get through the "Five Points" early primary/caucuses (with the addition of naughty Florida), let alone the Unofficial National Primary. (please, not "Super-Duper Tuesday"!), and being leader of the Opposing Forces would pretty much exclude the possibility Hillary would pick Obama as her VP (she should go for an experienced, moderate White Guy also-ran candidate, like Biden, Dodd, or Stealth-Hispanic Bill Richardson).

Obama did choose to get into this one, after all; to me, it would have made more sense to let this one go by. I say this from a firm belief that Barack Obama is the real thing, someone who can make a historic contribution of progress for the country and the world if he gets the chance. I just don't think 2008 is really all that good of a chance for him. But if it comes down to Obama Now! or Obama Never! I guess I'd have to get behind him.