Immigration Deal I

I salute the efforts of Senators from both parties and President Bush (and his domestic advisers) in coming up with a compromise legislative proposal on immigration. The bipartisan good feelings about it lasted about two days, then the criticism began from both left and right. This should be a good sign, a true indication that there had indeed been a compromise by both sides, but it doesn't appear to be so. Pundits have already pronounced the new proposal to be dead.

I don't see it that way. The next step will be slight modification in the Senate. Then there will be radical changes to it in the House version, an extended conference, and two very difficult votes on the conference report. If a bill can get passed in both houses, though, I think the President will sign it, and that is why this issue still has potential for actual legislation, unlike most of the current topics of the day.

My principal take on the proposal is that, as it stands now, the provisions to put today's illegals on a track toward legitimacy and eventual citizenship lack sufficient incentives to get them to come out of the shadows. Disincentives, on the other hand, are plenty in the current proposal.

I see the Republicans' support for this proposal as soft, likely to disappear when the House Democratic majority will cut into the punitive provisions (or, more astutely, start to include some short-term rewards--eligibility for social services?-- for those who bite the bullet and register themselves). Only a few from the GOP will end up supporting the final legislation, but it will be enough. As long as Bush keeps to his position.