Raw Earth!

 I hear we are going to get a large shipment of it, in exchange for the munitions we have sent to Ukraine.  I don't think it's a great deal for the US, but they have been very brave.  We should take the raw earth and make it wet so it's more usable, and then dump it outside Mar-a-Lago to help protect it from the rising sea level. /s

It's pretty clear that Trump thought he could impose the terms on Ukraine that he has had his people work out with Russia.  He seems not to have considered that Ukraine, and Europe behind them, would refuse a deal that is as unfavorable as:  ceasefire at the current front lines; no concessions, no admitting of responsibility, no reparations, no guarantees of security, release of sanctions on Russia. Ukraine is well aware that the Korean War ended similarly (but with the guarantees) and there is no peace, only an armistice, 70 years later.

With regard to Trump's touted materials deal, Zelensky tried to make it into more than what it was, an agreement forced upon him under duress, which perhaps was negotiated further to become more of a win for him and for the US.  One of my old bosses used to refer to that tactic as "negotiating after the close", which just causes problems. This US President is not going to get sucked into the conflict with new security assurances under any circumstances, and he sees the need to take Putin's side to beat down that request.  Trump and Vance's behavior was embarrassing, shameful, but not surprising given the lack of a real accord.  It does appear that Trump is losing his mind.

I would suggest, though, that Zelensky and Europe should go along with an end of active hostilities, just as they are, with the provision that there be a conference to finalize a peace in which the many outstanding issues would have to be addressed.  Trump needs the quick win soon, though, or he will cause more pain.  Merely stopping the fighting will, if the ceasefire holds, leave unresolved problems that will only set the stage for future disaster.     

 Turkey Gets a Seat at the Table

As I indicate, this is not a deal that can be arranged just between the US and Russia.  The US and Russia can make a number of deals between themselves on important matters like strategic weapons, but the US' claim to represent Ukraine's side, or even to act as an impartial arbitrator, is out the window with Trump, who is manifestly untrustworthy--a liar  The proposed peace deal Trump's people and Putin's will come up with surely will be unacceptable to Ukraine and Europe. 

And, if they are not considered, Turkey.  I noticed Zelensky meeting with Turkey's Erdogan the other day; Ukraine is smart enough to bring them in, even though Turkey is relatively close to Russia at present.    Turkey controls what goes into the Black Sea and what goes out, though the Bosporus.   Turkey does not want Russia to be able to return its navy to Sebastopol in Crimea after fighting is stopped.   During this war, Ukrainian drones have chased the Russian navy from the port.  Turkey wants the Black Sea to be a zone of peace.                                 

 

This pentagonal design would allow each party to sit next to two parties with which they are somewhat aligned, and that does not require them to be too close to those most distasteful to them.  The only exception is requiring Europe's representatives (from the EU, NATO, the U.K., France, and Germany, for example) to sit next to the USA to keep them behaving just a little.