I have been thinking about this horror which I heard about only last night, and I am going to write what I think is going on, in blunt terms.
The report is that the Israeli forces found the hostages already dead, and they estimated that they had been killed three or four days before. Although the chances Israeli assaults might accidentally kill hostages are high, I find this report credible, if unproven.
Let's go with that report and what it means. Israel has had to send out warnings to evacuate from areas they are considering for attack in the very short term. Not doing so would multiply civilian deaths beyond their already outrageous levels. My supposition is that Hamas has developed a new strategy: kill the hostages held in those areas with known risk of assault, before the IDF can get there.
It has a cold-hearted logic, and the implications for Israeli offensive actions against Hamas are clear: attack, and they die. The chances for Israeli surprise rescue assaults, I would suspect, are now very few. They are left with no good reason to continue with their generally unsuccessful posture of attacking as the best way to get the hostages free, in the context of Hamas intransigence. I am sure they don't have any good leads about how to take out the top Hamas leaders, regardless of the cost, or they would have done so.
It is time for Israel to declare a unilateral cease-fire, for a period of a couple of weeks or so, with the expectation Hamas would move during that time to make the cease-fire continue by releasing their hostages or making commitments to do so immediately. If they do that, Israel would not renew hostilities so long as Hamas does not do so.
I see no risk whatsoever for Israel to do that, beyond the damage Hamas will likely cause when they break the cease-fire with Israel still mobilized for active defense. It won't even require Netanyahu to resign, if he can pull it off. If Hamas refuses to release their hostages (something they have offered to do, but under relaxed security conditions Israel would not accept at the time) they would just go back to killing each other--nothing has been lost. Israel would have to be somewhat stoic with their unilateral cease-fire until Hamas/Islamic Jihad violations inevitably cool down and avoid retaliation, or make that retaliation extremely limited and targeted. They have the ability to do that.
If Hamas does not agree, it is time for the women of Gaza to slit the throats of their oppressors while they sleep.
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9/3: Hamas has already come out and said as much as I guessed. It's a Doomsday type strategy; it does no good if the point doesn't get across, so they made an announcement.
Netanyahu reacted strongly to the public outcry for an immediate cease-fire, which was essentially endorsed by the Defense minister in his own Cabinet. I saw his rambling speech to defend his intransigent approach with regard to the Philadelphi corridor, the biggest technical issue remaining. The real issues are nowhere near solution, but getting hostages out has finally become top priority, for all but him.
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