"Play-in Tournament" Edition

As I write this, the NBA playoffs are beginning with their first game.  This is a "Play-In" matchup between two teams in the middle of the Eastern Conference standings.  The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat have both made surprise runs through the Eastern playoffs in recent memory, but now they are the number 7 and 8 seeds, going for a spot in the playoffs proper.   They have much the same players since their past heroics; I'd say it is more like the top of the East--Milwaukee, Boston, and Philadelphia--have risen and left them behind. 

At halftime of this game, Atlanta had produced an unexpected big lead (15 points, down from 23) . Unexpected since Miami is home, had a better regular-season record, and in particular had feasted on the Hawks in recent play.  Instead, Atlanta showed an offense broadened beyond their star, Trae Young, while Miami's clutch performer, Jimmy Butler, was having a stinker, along with his teammates.  Maybe this game isn't enough of a pressure matchup, as it's not an elimination game, and Butler could still rise in the consolation game (against the #9 vs. #10 winner) and carry them forward into the 8th spot. 

This Play-in Tournament, as they call it, is not really a thing but an adjunct to the thing.  There's no winner, just two teams getting to go to the next round.  It's a concept that was started in the NCAA basketball tournament when they wanted to add a few more teams to their bracket beyond 64.  For the NBA, it was an improvisation in the pandemic year of 2020, giving teams that were in contention for the playoffs (once play resumed after the initial shutdown) a fair chance to qualify.  

Turns out, it was a good marketing concept, one that even helps with the league's perpetual problem with teams giving up during the regular season.  It certainly doesn't eliminate it--the Dallas Mavericks and Mark Cuban, their owner, are under investigation for doing it too blatantly and clumsily in the last week, preferring a shot at a good lottery draft pick to an unlikely shot at a berth in the real playoffs.  And the last-day scrubfest in the Eastern Conference, when all the slots were set, was not a good look. But, in general, more teams contending means more good competition toward the end.  

This was exemplified in the Western Conference, where there is more parity and there was a frenzied battle for the last several playoff and play-in slots. Most of the close, important contests will be in the matchups in the West, at least until the expected Eastern semifinal between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers.  That's true tonight, when the pregame focus clearly centered on the Lakers-Timberwolves game (like Atl-Mia, #7-#8), and a golden opportunity for the Lakers to redeem their regular-season shortcomings with an opening to go far (against #2, Memphis, missing their big men).  For me, that will also be true tomorrow night, as we get a rare opportunity to see the most improved player in the league this year, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, of the Oklahoma City Thunder, #10 in the Western standings and playing at the Zion Williamson-less New Orleans Pelicans.  

Basically, all the possible matchups in the West are interesting ones.  The two that are likely to be most prolonged are the #6 vs. #3 and #7 vs. #2, both of which are likely to have the worse-seeded team as the betting favorites.  #6 Golden State is the defending champions and seems poised to make another run, while #3 Sacramento is an emerging top team, but totally untested in the playoffs. #7 Lakers defeating #2 Grizzlies is only a bit more of a stretch, if we grant the Lakers the win tonight ahead of time.  The superstar-filled showdown between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Phoenix Suns is the one that is most pivotal, though.    

It is in the second round that we should expect to see the Denver Nuggets first challenged.  Assuming the Nugs survive a 7-game series against the Play-in survivor, they would face the Suns-Clippers winners in the Western semifinals, which should be a TV highlight of the whole playoffs. As for the other semifinal and the Western final, it's much too hazy even foreseeing which teams will be playing in order to predict. I will go out on a limb, though, and say that the winner of the Eastern Conference semifinal between Boston and Philadelphia will win the championship this year.  Even though Milwaukee will be favored in the Eastern final. 

I rush to complete this post before the Atlanta-Miami game finishes:  Miami came back to make it a contest.  That's what's so good about the modern NBA games:  they are so dynamic.  But, it's looking good for the unexpected result, perhaps a harbinger for what is to come (parity certainly showed itself in the NCAA's this year). 

Baseball:  We are about 10 games into the season.  The big bags are great for the SB.  The game is surprisingly healthy, not to mention the classic World Baseball Classic before the season.   We add to the usual suspects (Astros, Braves, Yankees, Dodgers) the rising Padres, the aspiring Brewers and Angels (and maybe the Diamondbacks, instead of the Giants this time).  

Hitting is rising again, even running to some extent, but pitching gets teams through the playoffs.  I see a Braves-Astros Series. 

Soccer a/k/a Futbol:  Chelsea is having one of its worst seasons in recent memory, about at the pre-Roman Abramovich '90's level of mid-table mediocrity.  They have one more chance for their overstuffed roster to achieve glory, as they open a Champions League quarterfinal series away at Real Madrid tomorrow.  A draw would give Chelsea a chance to surprise by winning at home, and there is no more Away-goals tiebreaker, so I would expect the punchless Blues to play for a scoreless tie, then freak out after Real Madrid, a perennial Champions League killer, opens the scoring.   

At least I will get to see Frank Lampard on the Chelsea sidelines once again. 

With Chelsea's fade in the Premier League to 10th or so, I am compelled to root for Arsenal to hold on against the titanic Manchester City squad.  They still have  six-point lead, so they can even afford to lose in the showdown game.  And to tie against Chelsea in their upcoming game.  But that's it!!

P.S. Jimmy got to the free-throw line a bunch, as he always will do, but Atlanta held on for the win.