Midterm Election Preview

It's almost Labor Day, so time for the real campaign to begin.  With the exception of the occasional special election in the House, the rest of the electoral history this year amounts to sparring for position in the general election.  We should remember that, instead of trying to score Trump's endorsement or blacklist successes and failures in primaries. 

"The Red Wade"

A Republican commenter's typo on PredictIt inadvertently provided the phrase to me, which I think is a good summary.  The waters turn out to be shallow, though there's some blood in them.  Beware sharks. 

"madlaw" on Political Wire hit this thought with a good rejoinder:  "Red Wade" could be the alter ego of the Deadpool comics character.  

Anyway, my view is that, for all the fuss, fairly little has changed since 2020:  It's not inflation, nor abortion, nor the Jan. 6 Committee, though those provide impetus for those all-important shifts of a couple points or two, mainly among those unaffiliated with the two parties, and to ensure that turnout this year will be healthy for midterm elections.  The 2022 election is essentially Biden vs. Trump, though neither name will appear on ballots.  One can only  hope there is some prospect that the 2024 one will somehow have a different theme. 

Republicans' confidence in past months rode on historical patterns as being near to necessity, combined with Biden's steadily-weakening approval rating.  A referendum on Biden, with a shaky economy, looked like a sure winner for the opposition in a midterm test.   But Trump had to rear his ugly head. 

There has been a sharp reversal in the perception of the outcome of the election, particularly an erosion of that level of confidence.  As evidence, the proposition that Republicans would win control of both the House and Senate was as high as 80% on PredictIt, as recently as April.   It's now at 34%, which I think may be a typical market over-correction.  This is driven by major movement in the odds for both the Senate and the House--30% or so on the Senate odds, 15% on the House.  

In the battle for control of the Senate, we can look at PredictIt's market for the number of GOP seats, where the highest value is for 49 (meaning a Democratic gain of one seat).  Personally, I think 50-50 is the most likely outcome.  The simplest route to that result is the Democratic pickup in Pennsylvania, which I think is extremely likely, offset by Republican success in picking off one Democratic incumbent.  Nevada's Catherine Cortez Masto is the most likely target, with Rev. Warnock in Georgia also in some danger, from the physically imposing and mentally impotent football star Herschel Walker.  

There are a number of other close contests, at least within the margin of error, but I tend toward the view that the chances for upsets are evenly balanced.  To be more explicit, a Democratic pickup in Wisconsin is about as likely as a Republican one in Arizona; a Democratic upset in Ohio, Florida, or North Carolina is about as likely as a Republican one in New Hampshire.  That last state is still a little hard to handicap, as it's the one state that still has an important primary yet to come; a ridiculous Trumpist extremist (Dan Bolduc) is a slight favorite over the moderate (Chuck Morse) who would actually have a chance to win there. 

As for the House, there are so many variables it is better to talk in terms of broad ranges.  The result of redistricting surprisingly did not give a strategic advantage to one party or the other, at least for this election.  The polls suggest that there is no longer a clear popular-vote advantage for one party or the other anymore, but due to extreme population concentrations for the Democrats in a number of urban districts, the Democrats need a 2-3% national popular vote margin to stay even in the House, and they don't have that yet.  So, I'm going with "narrow Republican majority" as my prediction. 

If I had to pick a number in a House "How many seats will the GOP Have"market on PredictIt, I would pick 222 on the betting roulette wheel. Apart from its appeal as a sexy number,  it would just offset the 222-213 advantage the Democrats won in the 2020 election, and so would be a gain of 9 for the GOP.  But I won't get to do that bet:  the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), which somehow became PredictIt's regulator, has just put PredictIt in jeopardy.  As a result, they have stopped adding new markets, just before that one on the specific House result would have been put out there.  They may get a new decision allowing them to continue doing business beyond Feb. 15, 2023, but that is the current date all trading would end.  I may have to find a new hobby. 

That 222 number has a very large Margin of Error, though--let's say 15 seats.  The consensus of the various pundits going into the district-by-district fundamentals is that there are about 200 seats where the Republicans have a significant or huge advantage and about 190 seats for the Democrats to have the same.  This leaves 45 that have narrow margins or are just plain tossups:  in statistical terms, the null hypothesis of 50-50 can not be rejected.  

What We Will Take Away

What we would logically and reasonably conclude from those outcomes I describe above is that the head of the Republican party is leading his followers toward an electoral disaster for their movement, as they will have blown a chance to regain control that should have been theirs.   Once again, Trump's guidance to Republican voters proves ruinous to their general election chances, particularly those of Senator McConnell to become Majority Leader again.   

But you really have also to blame Republican primary voters who are blind to the warning signs.  The party is at the edge of the demographic precipice, as us old farts steadily release our physical carbon to the biosphere and "conservative" becomes as much a cursed and tainted label as "liberal" became for some, decades ago.  Reduction of the extent of the central government is a natural policy advantage American Republicans could have, as is a strong security stance, but the Republicans, led by Trump, are in the process of losing ownership of both of them.  The incompetence of Trump's administration was so transparent as to appear intentional, and he managed to antagonize the military and law enforcement, as well.

Policy-wise, the Republicans without Trump's blather are bereft.  Rick Scott's attempt to re-create something like Gingrich's Contract Against America (or whatever) differs in its outcome--he's a laughing stock (and designated scapegoat if the Republicans fail to win a Senate majority, as head of their campaign committee) and so are his policy suggestions, which are ignored by Republican candidates across the nation. 

The Democrats in D.C. for their part have truly thrown a lot of policy linguine at the wall, and less of it is garbage than I was expecting (with a 50-50 Senate).  Getting some gun control legislation passed, even if it is not such a BFD, was worth doing, drawing a line in the air after the Uvalde massacre.  The Inflation Reduction Act--not a lie, just a gross exaggeration, as it will have a marginally beneficial, if undetectable, effect economically--was good politics and brings us into line with our international commitments on climate change action and minimum corporate tax.  I'm less impressed with the healthcare improvements in it, but at least they maintain our national healthcare system, as opposed to destroying it and putting nothing in its place, the reform proposed when the Republicans and Trumpists had Congressional control.  

In terms of Biden's Student Loan forgiveness policy announced today, it fulfills another important campaign promise to a volatile target audience.  Personally, I would've preferred a simple approach:  expanded opportunity for forgiveness through work, and an announcement to suspend interest on all these Federally-owned loans, with retroactive adjustments for payments since 2009 (to pick a date, I choose an homage to Obama), which would have been good policy going forward while not creating moral hazard, though not as generous.  But this will do, unless the courts piss on it. 

If this set of disappointing Republican results remains the scenario, Biden vs. Trump 2.5 will look promising, even if the GOP regulars fail to excise the Drumpfist cancer.  Still, we should hope it never comes to that, for the damage it will continue to wreak on our electoral and psychological health.  At least, we should hope the Donald gives us a present and announces he will not announce until 2023.  By then, the results should be digested better, and we can instead address the many, but more subtle, deficiencies of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (memorably described by Tim Miller of The Bulwark as a "campy tribute artist", referring to his performative relationship to The Dickhead Former Guy)..

If, on the other hand, that 30-40% chance instead hits, and the Republicans get solid control of Congress, despite all the Vance, Masters, Oz, Walker, and the rest of the loser candidates resulting from Trumpist idiocy, then we will know he will run, and be nominated, and thus Biden will have to run, too, assuming he is able.  So we better be prepared for that eventuality, too.