Vindman is Half-Right

Former Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, of 1st impeachment fame, was on Amanpour tonight advocating an aggressive approach to the Ukraine invasion. His interlocutor was visibly surprised by the earnest advocacy of a less risk-averse strategy for the US and its allies to pursue. 

His professed belief is that a little counter-attack strength will be the best deterrence to Putin at this point. If there is no change, Putin will be able to slowly grind Ukraine down, one of the worst possible outcomes. One thing he said that I totally agree upon, is that we are overthinking the complications involved in the proposed transfer of Polish Soviet-era MIG's over to Ukraine. 

More broadly, we are thinking much too narrowly of the possible range of operations of Ukrainians against Russia. Particpation against the Putinist War and Russian assets--again within Cold War proxy warfare rules, which I would say is the basic approach Putin has regressed upon--can be worldwide, anywhere Russian-style autocracy does not hold sway. So, his suggestion is simply to bring Ukrainian pilots over to Poland, file all the appropriate papers for the loan of Polish assets guaranteed by US dollars or whatever, and have them fly the planes over the border, immediately merging with whatever Ukrainian air assets remain and starting to make a more active air competition over Ukraine. All legit. 

Just this will make a big difference in the Russian strategy, if I'm right, as those vulnerable Russian columns of armored troops would become one 40-mile-long immobile target for attack. The whole top-down Russian battle plan assumes air superiority--it relies upon it.  The results would be catastrophic for the plan. Think of the US destruction of the Iraqi armor in the latter stages of Gulf War I. Putin can't risk that, or shouldn't.

Rationally, his move would then be to move to freeze the battle, or at least buy a little time before continuing to attack. (Remember there were two Chechen wars; the second one was the more brutal one.) 

Vindman is more aggressive than I. He says attack Russian air assets in Belarus. To me, that means expanding the war beyond Ukraine's borders. I was thinking attack those artillery assets firing on Kharkiv from inside Russia--that is fair game, but that might not be quite as much a shock to the Russians as pulverizing their invading troops. 

So,again, it is creating that threat of loss of massive invasion assets which I'd advocate. 

Some other time, maybe I will go into more detail with another harebrained idea, involving the Russians'  enclave at Kaliningrad. For now, I'd just say that, as part of the Aegean Sea blockade of Russian Navy and cargo exiting the Black Sea, there should be some training program for Free Ukrainian Navy SEALs. 

My next post will be for the one actor in this tragic episode that I have had the pleasure of meeting, our President Biden. He has so much on his plate, and he is doing his best with this unforgiving, soul-destroying job, that of protecting the best hopes of mankind, while keeping us out of war. Something wearily familiar in the latter history of this land (Wilson FDR LBJ). At least, unlike the Ukrainians, he asked for the job. I'm sure he'd agree, this is all Trump's fault. So would Vindman.