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Thursday, December 30, 2021

OMC!

 The Climactic Spasm of Covid? 


As pictured here, and note the ratings (click through for a closer look):  

The Omicron Sniper: It is hard to dodge its attack, as it has a long range and quick spatial movement, but its attack is not in itself sufficient in most cases.  Its defenses against our countermeasures are significant but not impregnable.  Most importantly, it has a short projected lifespan. *

As it sweeps over our country at roughly the speed of air travel, our efforts to slow it down seem ever less effective.  The air travel ban of South African countries was particularly useless, just as Trump's ban of Chinese arrivals during the initial wave was blind to the actual transmission here, mostly via Europe.  

I was given to saying to like-minded people (pre-omicron) that, if we had a good Christmas, we could be O.K. in the 2022 elections, and if people felt the holidays too compromised, we would truly be in trouble.  It looks as though the timing and speed of the omicron onslaught was such that Xmas was still somewhat alright, but we had to give up our New Years plans: it would seem pure insanity to engage in any mass activity on the eve of 2022.   

If one nets the one against the other, I'd think we come out ahead, but the loss column may end up including some effect on the hallowed college bowl games, and it remains to be seen in the weeks ahead whether it will extend to the even more sacred (and crucial, politically) NFL playoff circuses. 

There is another sportive aspect about which we must be concerned.  The Winter Olympics are due to start in a matter of weeks in a nation (China) that, after having the most cases, and who knows how many deaths initially, has been willing to go to extremes in prevention and mitigation, and has maintained itself nearly Covid-free.  The Winter Olympics can be contained in a bubble, I believe, but the after-effects in country are likely to be serious--and I don't think their vaccines are top-quality.  If I were Xi, I would be preparing for the worst now. 

So, we now must wait to see if deaths will follow the nearly exponential omicron growth, or more likely, will grow more linearly.  And for how long before the peak?  The UK experience suggests the wave could be a matter of some weeks or a couple of months.  One big unknowable, one that will be critical for the future of the naive unvaccinated who are about to be tested by omicron, is whether exposure to this multi-faceted virus will provide greatly-enhanced protection against future variants, or will the virus outsmart us again?  

Finally, for many of us, even among the exposed asymptomatics, who will be numerous beyond count,  vaccinated or not, there is the danger of long-lasting effects.  Sadly, we are likely experiencing a significant hit to life expectancy that may extend to multiple generations, offsetting decades of progress from medical improvement and reduced tobacco smoking. 



*Photo credit for my son's Heroscape set.  We will ignore that 'n' in its label--probably just a typo.  I've been told too many times not to be so obsessive about spelling.


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