Just Baseball--Premature Postseason Analysis

It's premature to make too many specific guesses about winners in post-season series, when so many specific details of the National League brackets are yet to be finalized.  So please grant me the indulgence of allowing me to do so, anyway.

Whereas the focus during the close of the regular season is entirely on the NL, in the playoffs one should look first to see what's happening in the junior circuit, the American League.

I would say that the name of the game, until changed, will be "Who Can Stop the Red Sox"?  They have had a regular season of historically high quality, one of the best in our lifetimes.  They have few weaknesses, and they are relatively minor ones.  The offense is explosive,  they even have hitters like Brandon Phillips and Hanley Ramirez in reserve, and they have sufficient top-line starting pitching along with the best closer in the majors (over the past few years) in Craig Kimbrel.    They have lost so few series with opponents, so few games for that matter. They are certainly going to take some beating.  But, in a short series, or more precisely in a series of those series, the unexpected can surely happen.

First round for the Botox Dynasty Bid: 2018, will of course be the Yankees.  Well, it should be, but those upstart A's could take out the Bombers in a single-game playoff. Either team will come in with strong confidence in their capability, and it will be up to Boston to take them out, quickly and decisively.   And that includes getting that toughest win--the fourth (just ask the 2004 Yankees).

The ALCS should also be a true test for the wannabe-Warriors (referring of course to the current dynasty-holder in the NBA; the American League Championship Series is now the MLB equivalent of the Western Conference finals. On that note, remember the 2018 ones, Golden State vs. Houston?)  It will either be Cleveland or Houston, both hardened postseason veteran teams, coming off a similar series success.   Both are huge offensive-minded teams with great defense, like the Red Sox.  The series will likely come down to a hot starting pitcher:  the Red Sox have Chris Sale and David Price who could be That Man, but the Indians have Corey Kluber and the Astros have Justin Verlander (and Gerrit Cole, for that matter).

Let's say that, in spite of those two tough tests, the Red Sox win through to the World Series.  I would give that a probability in the 45-50% range (I'll check back with Fivethirtyeight's to see what they have or will have, once all the names are known).   Who the heck will they play in the Series, and what will the matchup be like?    Hard to say--I will take that up in a moment--but I would give the Red Sox a blanket 60% chance against the NL field. *  That 60% chance, layered on the 45-50% for the New-Look BTD (see above), gives the Red Sox something like a 27-30% chance.  Not so high, you could say, but it's several times higher than any other team's.

As for the NL races, they have turned out to be just as tight as promised earlier.  We have been able to eliminate 3-4 "pretenders"  (the Nationals, now the Phillies, Pirates and Diamondbacks), but there are still two division titles to be determined, as well as both Wild Card spots.  The Cubs and Dodgers would seem to be the best bets, to win the contested divisions, to survive the playoffs and to have a chance to stop the Red Sox' bats, or at least slow them, if Boston makes the Series.  For a NL team to win vs. Boston, should require one or two pitchers who can consistently demonstrate command of their pitches, under the conditions of the World Series.   But it could happen.

It could also happen that the AL pitchers--from any team--are not able to command and control the NL hitters; that might happen, for example, if any of the other three NL teams in serious running (Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Colorado) get to scalding temperature with their hitting.  In that vein, my two dark horse candidate for Series MVP are the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year and MVP in the NL, Ronald Acuna, Jr.  (sorry, no tilde) and Nolan Arenado.
(Note on 9/22:  I omitted the Cardinals from consideration, which is a very dangerous thing to do.  They will need to run the gauntlet through the Wild Card, but it is far from impossible.)


OK:  My bet is Red Sox defeat Braves, 4-2. If I'm given proper (longshot) odds on that Trifecta. 



* I think there is a higher probability for the underdog in MLB's 7-game series than in the NBA Championships, the random event distribution shifting more toward repeated wins by the underdog.  Subject for another day, I promised "just baseball".  Fact is, though the AL has consistently bettered the NL in interleague games (a little less margin this year, I think) and talent has tended to flow the AL's way in things like the trading deadline moves and thourgh the draft (again, a little more balanced this year), the NL has won 4 of 7 championships this decade (5 of 8, if you include 2010, which I do not).  We can mostly thank the SF Giants, who are now pretty much out of it, for that.