Post-Pre-Oscars Posting Analysis

(Post-Oscar text in bold italics like these. See my 2/25 comment after the 11/25 "'Fall' Movie Preview" posting.)

I've now seen almost all the movies I mentioned in the preview (exceptions are "Call Me By My Name", "Phantom Thread", and the J. Paul Getty and Eric Clapton ones).

For anyone waiting for my choices before placing their bets on Oscars tonight, here they are:

Slam Dunk (Doesn't matter what I prefer, this is what is): Best Picture "The Shape of Water" (I don't believe "3 Billboards" will win, except as a feint in the announcement); Best Actor Gary Oldman "Darkest Hour"; Director Guillermo del Toro "Shape";  Animated "Coco"; Original Screenplay "Get Out" (Peele's "consolation for the night")--better not be '3 Billboards', as I thought the screenplay was the worst part of it. One would think "Phantom Thread" would have to win Costume Design.

Six for six. Peele's was the riskiest choice, because the category was so strong.  But as I said, "This is Us."  (or as SNL brilliantly satirized last night, "This is U.S." 

Interesting races--two-favorite categories:  Lead Actress--Frances McDormand vs. Sally Hawkins.  I think Frances will win, though I'd prefer Hawkins.  Both make feminist statements, which I think will be the winning cause of the night (over gays, blacks).
Adapted Screenplay--I would say it's between Aaron Sorkin for "Molly's Game" and James Ivory for "Call Me By Your Name".  Maybe the Wolverine one ("Logan"), if they want a crowd-pleasing choice.

Nothing wrong here; I wasn't sure but felt Oscar would take the opportunity to crown Ivory's career and reward him for his crossover to screenwriter in this film. The Merchant-Ivory collaboration remains the gold standard for modern execution of a certain type of film. 
  

Multi-faceted ones--
Both supporting acting ones:  Male - I like Willem Dafoe in "The Florida Project" over Plummer as Getty or the powerful but understated performance of Richard Jenkins in "Shape", with Harrelson and Rockwell splitting votes for "3 Billboards".  Female - I think it has to be Laurie Metcalf for "Lady Bird", though all the nominees seem deserving of consideration.

Original Score will be an interesting face off between three noisy symphonic types who may divide the old school vote (Hans Zimmer, John Williams of course, but also, Alexandre Desplat--ninth nomination, one win) and a couple of more interesting ones: Carter Burwell (100th credit, 1 previous nom) and Jonny Greenwood of one of my favorite rock bands, Radiohead (there's a reason for me to see "Phantom Thread"!) I'd go with Burwell, on the merits.  Also Original Song, though I think Mary J. Blige will win it (consolation prize, not Supporting Actress) over the "Coco" one (the more traditional choice); my wife likes the one from "Call Me..." by offbeat rock musician Sufjan Stevens.

Then there is Cinematography--without Chivo in the race, it is more wide open than usual.  I could go with any of the noms; I would think Dan Laustsen for "Shape" should be favored.

Amazing!  I went 0-for-5 in this section.  I should have seen Desplat winning for score and Roger Deakins for cinematography.  On the supporting actor categories, I should have consulted fivethirtyeight.com before posting, to remind me of the solid data (relating to the correlations between certain previous award winners to specific Oscar winners) to have expected Rockwell and Allison Janney. 

Not so interesting two-way:  The Sound ones, between Blade Runner and Shape of Water, Film editing, Shape and 3 Billboards, Visual Effects, between Blade and the Star Wars one; and Production Design, Shape and Dunkirk. I'd go with Shape (twice) on sound, Blade on Visuals, 3 Billboards film, and Dunkirk, production.

The rest: I have no clue.  Maybe the "Aleppo" one for Documentary Feature (take that, Gary Johnson!)

I basically had each of these more technical awards individually wrong, though the overall results that Dunkirk, Blade Runner and Shape of Water would lead the voting was directionally right.  

The Oscar program quality I would rate as average; there were moments, particularly with women, children, and minorities, and I liked the true surprise registered on the faces of  those winners of the multi-faceted races  that I guessed wrong.  The best part was the series of montage sequences of old winners around the 90th anniversary theme, particularly to introduce the winners of the acting awards.  I am not a fan of Jimmy Kimmel or his comedy choices, though I am appreciative of his willingness to be human on screen. 

I think my results show that there is both a high degree of predictability, and of pure randomness, in the  winners--the lesson for smart bettors is to pick their spots, and avoid the other categories, as well as the overall winner count lotteries.   Fivethirtyeight's analysis was 8-for-8 perfect, but they stopped there and shared my closing about the rest:  "haven't a clue".