Some Sporting Weekends

SBLII!
Seems that the owners of the Big Game have been persecuting those who use the official name of the professional American football championship in vain (or especially without the sponsor's name in front of it, now).  I was never one to refer to the SB in that fashion (I did a search), usually my name for it is the Stupid Bowl.   That's because, historically, the games tended not to be very close:  with the emotions so wound up, typically a team would get out ahead and then blitz the opposing quarterback silly and win by outrageous margins, while the announcers are forced to try to keep viewers watching somehow to justify their ridiculous advertising rates.  It's been a little better--the games, that is, I don't have an opinion of the trend in quality of ads-- in the last decade or so.

I don't have a favorite NFL team, but I do have a default rooting interest against the perennial champions in all the team sports.  This year's matchup was a fair one, of the top regular-season teams, from each conference, and they delivered a very strong game that ranks among the best--whatever the ratings.  t was a high-skill, closely-contested, fairly low-drama affair that followed expectations until the moment Tom Brady finally got sacked and fumbled late in the fourth quarter. The story of backup QB Nick Foles, who performed admirably, and proved superior in the key category of quarterback as pass receiver (not one you'll find in many fantasy leagues, for sure), is just as compelling a QB hero story to me as T.B. going for his Nth (poor Gisele in the owner's booth!) or the improbably-named Joe Montana, or some other popular future TV star like Peyton Manning or Bret Favre.  (But not as compelling as Colin Kapernick, when he first emerged, seemingly out of nowhere, that Monday NIght football game. Kapernick's story will make a better movie someday.)  I

I gave the Eagles about a 27% chance of winning the game, 5-2 odds. I didn't find that particular bet out there, but then I wasn't looking for bets on the Super Bowl.  I don't like betting on the spread on any of these sports, and to me the over-under, while statistically sound, doesn't have much relevnce to the game itself.  It's just a random variable with a probability distribution (though a different one each game depending on the circumstances).


Mowinckel Rules
I will admit I was somewhat anxious about the timing and location for the Winter Olympics.  It's bad enough that the town is a short distance from the heavily militarized border with North Korea; beyond that, note that Russia's team has been banned from the games because of the history of state-run doping. In that sense, the detente between north and South Korea-for the games, epitomized by the combined Korean hockey teams, offers two intentional thumbs in the eye (or is it both eyes) to the low-value TrumPence Korea saber-rattling strategy, and a great relief for fans that violence is not likely to spoil the fun.

I have been much more engaged with this year's Winter Olympics than the last couple ones.  I didn't see much of Sochi, but it seemed like a bummer to me; the Vancouver games were at a difficult time for me personally and I couldn't spare the time then.  The people who have emerged as young heroes this time, like Chloe Kim, the Korean skeleton genius (didn't get the name), Red Gerrard, the improbable Ester Ledecka (the snowboarder who won an Alpine event with borrowed skis), are very inspiring.

My favorite, though, is Ragnhild Mowinkel (rain-Hild, Mowinkel like Bullwinkel) a Norse woman who surprised everyone, including herself, by winning two silver medals in Alpine skiing--apparently she is the first woman to win medals from Norway in Alpine events.  She epitomizes the Viking Mystique: With the superior performance of the Norwegian men in Alpine skiiers supplementing their more typical successes (men and women) in the Nordic events, they are the runaway leaders in the national medal race.  It's the go-to country, as in, "we could only hope to go to Norway if we have to go into exile".   Certainly it's not producing people who would go to a shithole like this one.  But, I mean 'shithole' in the good sense-the importance of feces in the cycles of human and biological affairs is often underestimated.

It's hard to ignore the nationalistic element of the TV coverage of the Olympics, but i try.  Most of the ads, too, though I have to say I like the one for California Almonds that shows the US curler laying down a rock for the bored kids swiffing the kitchen floor.

Maybe I'm just getting to be a softie, but I'm also more amazed, and less bored, than ever before with the figure skating competition.  First, it seems like they finally have a scoring system that fairly determines outcomes. The quality of the top performances is sometimes breathtaking:  I'm thinking of the Japanese men's gold medal winner (and his teammate), the top two pairs dance teams, the Russian women!   And the Americans....

Look let's get real about this--anytime an American wins a medal in any Olympic sport, besides freestyle skiing/snowboarding or the bogus short track speed skating events, it's a major success. The point is, it always has been.  Look, we showed up, we tried.  I like the spirit--and the apparent amateur nature--of the US  men's hockey team (eliminated in the quarterfinals, in a "shootout"). These are not our games--we are participants.  I'm OK with that.

To make my point more clearly, Stupid Bowl is at heart a big, overhyped TV  show (think of the three-hour pregame, or the halftime extravaganza), but it offered a quality sporting event this year.  The Olympics are a quality sporting event despite the network's efforts to make it an entertainment program centered around nationalistic cheerleading.

Some Quick Hits
Basketball:  Now that we are finally getting past the trade deadline and the All-Star break, the real NBA season can begin.  I'm afraid I'm serious: the first two-thirds of the regular season seem to be little more than a warm-up for the pre-playoff exhibitions (the remaining regular season games) and the playoffs.  LeBron James finally has the teammates he wants, and he's ready to rally his team from their mediocre performance to crush the Eastern Conference opposition.  I will expect Spurs' coach Popovich to pull a rabbit out of his hat and suddenly put a healthy, rested Kawhi Leonard out there, with a similarly healthy and rested Rudy Gay, to supplement a mostly-young, partly terribly-old (Ginobili, Tony Parker) team that has learned to play well without them.  Will a boost like those two put them into Warriors-challenging territory?  We may find out in the second round of the playoffs; they could pull an upset of historic proportions.  The Houston Rockets have something to say, too; they want a shot at Golden State in the Western championship round--it may not happen that way, they may have to wait until next year, when the new scheme might have them playing each other in the finals.

I see the NBA is reconsidering its "one and done' policy with regard to college players.  They're probably thinking of just eliminating it--I would suggest going the other way to "two and done".  Despite the inequity, denying these future millionaires their gratification another year, making them work for nothing with insufficient career insurance, it would produce a better sport, both at the college level and the pros.  Not enough veteran savvy, too many talented youngsters with poor team skills.

P.S. There is one spirited contest remaining for the regular season:  a multi-sided battle of sneaky tanking strategies among eight different teams for the worst records, which will lead to higher draft picks.  The bad teams will find phony reasons to shut down their best players for the most minor injuries in order to help their chances to do badly.  The trade deadline moves had several aspects of this, for example the Bulls' trade of Nikola Mirotic, who failed to get with the program after returning from a long injury (his teammate busted his face with a fist in a team practice) and played his best ball, causing the Bulls unexpectedly to go on a lengthy win streak.  He had to be traded.  i love the NBA; the skill levels and athleticism are off the charts, but this is very bad.  The league has to change the rules so there is much less benefit in the draft lottery for finishing at the very bottom; instead, the teams that just miss the playoffs should get more chances to get good draft picks.

Soccer: I have to give the multi-millionaire Arabs who own Manchester City football club the credit due to them, as they have supplanted Chelseas's Roman Abramovich as the most effective big-time investors in producing a powerhouse English Premier League team.  They have a chance to tie, or even surpass, crosstown rival Manchester United's greatest single-year accomplishments.  As for Chelsea, they are in a decent shape to stay in the Champions League--next year--by finishing in the top four.  There are five very strong teams battling for the three open slots available behind Man City,.  As for this year, by getting nosed out for second in their first-round group, they ended up drawing Barcelona in the round of 16.  They are proving to be a worthy opponent, which means after their 1-1 draw at home (great strategy, almost, to keep Barca from getting that crucial away goal) they are probably in trouble in the rematch.  If they score first, they've got a real shot at pulling off the upset, but otherwise it is likely to go downhill very fast.

Baseball:  Speaking of multi-millionaire investors producing winning teams, the big preseason question is whether the Yankees have bought themselves into a chapionship team--I'm tempted to say, "again".  Certainly the signing of top slugger Giancarlo Stanton, to go with the Yanks' 2017 rookie breakout power sensation Aaron Judge is the stuff of Yankee legends:  Ruth-Gehrig-DiMaggio, Maris-Mantle, Mattingly-Reggie (that' was a trick; they never played together), regardless of whether they can take over the AL.  The defending champion Astros, hungry and unfulfilled Indians, and the RedSox all will try to make life difficult for them, as they can compare offensively and--at least the first two--probably have better starting pitching.
In the National League, the Nationals seem to be fading, leaving the Cubs and Dodgers as the big-time power brokers.  The Cubs stepped up, in the wake of likely allowing their formerly superstar starter Jake Arrieta to depart, by paying big money for Yu Darvish, the mercurial Japanese pticher who couldn't get it done for the Dodgers last year.  The Dodgers have plenty more where Darvish came from, though--I don't mean Japan, the Angels got the big Japanese name this year in Shohei Ohtani, who could be a crowd-pleasing sensation--I mean their bench: the Dodgers have six or seven potential ace starting pitchers, starting with the ace of trumps, Clayton Kershaw.  As for the Reds, they appear to be in Year 4 of an eight-year rebuilding program.  I just hope Joey Votto lasts long enough to still be playing then.

Tennis: My tennis world is still agog at Roger Federer's triumph defending his Australian Open title.  He didn't have to get past Rafael Nadal this time, but I think his level was such that he might have been able to do it again this year.  As for the women, the 2018 story will be when Serena returns.  It may not be real soon, but the crown remains empty until she comes back and has a go at taking it back.