Friday, April 08, 2011

Intrade Odds

...of this moment (Friday, April 8, at 3:39 p.m. EDT)

Odds of a government shutdown (by June 30, 2011, but essentially now): 57.8%

Odds of Muammar Qaddafi leaving his position at head of Libya's government by end of year: 65%

Of the Democratic party winning the Presidential election in 2012: 62.7%

Of the Republicans holding control of the House in the 2012 elections: 55%

Of the Republicans winning control of the Senate in 2012 (51 seats, or 50 if they win the Presidency, not counting Independents): 66%

Chances of selected individuals to win the Republican nomination in 2012: Mitt Romney 27.4%, Tim Pawlenty 16.5, Mitch Daniels 8.5, Michele Bachmann 7.3, Donald Trump 5.9, Mike Huckabee 5.5, Sarah Palin 4.9, Haley Barbour 4.8, Jon Huntsman 4.7, Newt Gingrich 3.9, Chris Christie 2.3, Ron Paul 1.7, Gary Johnson 1.5, Paul Ryan 1.3, Rudy Giuliani 1.0. Many others listed, all below 1.0%.

My take on these odds: bet against Qaddhafi, and Republicans winning the Senate; in favor of Obama, Romney, Daniels, Huckabee, and Paul Ryan, and against all the other Republicans. I think the odds on Republicans' holding the House are about right. I'm surprised by Pawlenty's number, but on the other hand, I read that Obama does worst against an anonymous Republican opponent than against any named one. In that case, Pawlenty would be a good choice for them, and the odds may be right in line. I think Romney's chances are closer to 40% on the nomination.

Intrade has a new look to their web site--more friendly, less geeky. I think they're looking to make it less an investment site, more a game site. Got to get the dumb money in there if it's going to predict events well over the long haul, I think.

The odds on the shutdown have risen rapidly, but now are stabilizing. As it may go down to the last hour, it's hard to be sure, but I think it will be solved--at least for this week!

1 comment:

Chin Shih Tang said...

The government dodged the bullet on Friday, and there's an agreement on the budget through October, but there still may be a risk of government shutdown due to the danger that the debt limit may not be increased. That is supposed to come to a head next month.

I was a little unclear on Pawlenty; I would not bet for or against his chances for the nomination, quoted at 16%.