Saturday, February 06, 2010

Stupid Bowl 44

This year's Super Bowl is not quite as stupid as usual: for one thing, the number one seeds of each conference made it. It's a bit surprising, but that doesn't happen very often.

Both teams have extremely potent offenses, and my own view is that neither team has sufficient defense to stop its opponent. So, the recommended bid is over on the Over/under. Last I saw, the line was 56 points (combined total), which is quite high, but I still think it will over--I'm expecting about 40 points by halftime (at least it shouldn't be the Stupor Bowl).

Unless there is a potent running game (and neither team really has one), one can expect a bit of time dilation effect in the Super Bowl--things happen very fast. It could be very one-sided, if there are a couple of early breaks, but I expect a lot of passing yardage, and a couple of big plays, before the first quarter is over.

So, the key is to somehow miss all the pregame nonsense, catch the first half (when the game is likely to be decided), see what the sexuagenarians The Who can put together for the halftime show, then either split or, if the game defies the odds and stays close, see the end.

My pick: 45-44, one way or the other--whoever has the ball last, wins. That would suggest a bet against the Colts (favored by about 6, depending), but I wouldn't advise that: they are the team with SB experience, and that often matters alot. I'm hoping (but not betting) that the Saints, who live in a carnival atmosphere all the time, won't have been distracted too much.

1 comment:

Chin Shih Tang said...

Of course I'm glad that no one bets on the basis of my advice. "Do you?" (quoting The Who at halftime...)

There was just as much offense as I thought, but conversion into TD's was a bit low. The 10-6 halftime score, in particular, was a surprise. Notwithstanding, there still should've been at least 55 points with a little conversion at the end by the Colts (though that would've been either one point, or half a point, less than the quoted over/under).

It was still a good bet, even if it didn't win.

Congratulations to the Saints!