Chalk Rules!

I have to begin with a bit of a brag: two of my four entries in ESPN's Tournament Challenge have the Final Four exactly right.

My wife did the fifth of the five free entries. She did as well, or better, up to the round of eight. Though she had two wrong out of those--Kansas, and the Quackers of Oregon--she can still beat me out if Georgetown beats Ohio State. Meanwhile, I've got Florida beating Ohio St. in one of the perfect fours, and Ohio St. beating Florida in the final in the other.

I like the fact that you get multiple entries--it lets you try things out, act them through the whole scenario. I kept coming back to the same teams winning through the latter rounds, and I'm surprised that I was right. In that sense, the biggest game was not Xavier-Ohio St., or the tough losses Tennessee and Vandy suffered, but the defeat of the dragon, University of North Carolina, in the regional final at the hands of Georgetown.

I had it wrong, though, about chaos in the early rounds. Plenty of close games, but the top teams almost always pulled them out. This year. A blast of normalcy in the jetstream.

Applying this Learning...

Clearly this bodes well for HRC. Following the NCAA's example, Her Royal Chalkness should edge past upstart BHO with a couple of close scares in the preliminary rounds.

With the Republicans, it's always the Chalk, every time. Or so it seems. Last time there was an upset was 1940. Is it just too early to set the line?

The Most Favored Scenario is that McCain somehow survives the Iraq debacle to become the favorite going into the caucuses--Giuliani's true record of his mayoral years catches up with him, and the Bushites cut Johnny a break and begin withdrawals as we enter 2008, thus relieving the pressure.

McCain is now totally compromised among virtually all who would call themselves Democrats or Leaning Democratic. He's thus lost his chance to fully capitalize on Hillary's high negatives, and I think those will end up drifting off to a third-party candidate like Bloomberg, or not voting if there is no significant third.

We begin to believe in the concept of Hillary as the odds-on favorite, and it is very easy to see how a bit of momentum for her could snowball, as those who like her OK but doubt her chances become agreeable to her nomination, and then to her election.

Please note that with the acceleration in the primary schedule, it will be almost impossible for another Final Four to be nominated before the two party presidential candidates are--even if the Unofficial National Primary fails to name a clear winner.