Pre-Oscars: The Mexican Wave

We're going to the Oscar night gala here at Shadows: Bar and Grill. Black tie, but not a bow (can't be found)--you think a bolo might work? I'm going to try for a table that has a direct line of sight both to the front door, and to the street (opposite each other)--that way I'm in a good strategic position wherever a ruckus may start. Is this the "Mexican wave" to which my title refers? I sincerely hope not.

But seriously, I'm not in a good position to comment on the Oscars' races this year. The first thing I want to say is, IT'S NOT ALL MY FAULT! The intersection of Oscar-worthy and commercial didn't happen this year, not even for "Dreamgirls". (OK, maybe for "Monster House", but we'll see if it wins best animated.) "Last King of Scotland" hasn't arrived, "Notes on a Scandal" just this weekend, "Letters from Iwo Jima" and "Pan's Labyrinth" just a week ago. So, I haven't seen any of the nominees for Best Actress or Best Actor. Some is definitely my fault; I expect to catch "Letters" in the big screen, and to find the videos for "Queen" and "Little Miss Sunshine" over the next couple of weeks).

I did make it a point to see all three of the quality movies by the Mexican directors: "Children of Men", "Babel", and "El Laberinto del Fauno". I would say that each is valuable, but I give a clear nod to "El Laberinto del Fauno" ("Pan's Labyrinth" is the somewhat inaccurate translation used to market the movie; I don't think the faun ever gives a name.) I found the story well thought through, the characters sharp and memorable, the visual elements exciting.

With regard to "Babel", I thought a third of it--the wild scenes with the couple's kid and their housekeeper on their journey across to Mexico and their return--was excellent, the main third--the scenes in Morocco with Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, and the local family whose youngsters accidentally shot her--unconvincing, and a third--the scenes in Japan with the crazed mute girl--superfluous.

As for "Children of Men", I think the execution of the story was superb (Clive Owen, as always, slays; the setting in England was well chosen), but the story premise was flimsy. I imagine the germination of the story to be a simple thought--"The Miracle of Childbirth". Now imagine a world in which the simple fact of a child's birth would actually be considered miraculous. Now contrive some story to make that world a reality--don't worry how plausible.

I see "El Laberinto" possibly winning three Oscars, which will put it near the top, just behind "Dreamgirls", (which is sure to win a couple for sound/music, and probably one for each of the supporting actor/actress categories). I think "The Departed" will win for Scorsese, and possibly for Best Picture (in an upset over "Babel") and best adapted screenplay. If I'm right, "Babel" will end up losing out frequently (splitting the vote in Best Supporting Actress, when Adriana Barranza should win), and "Queen" will basically be limited to wins for Helen Mirren, and possibly an upset win for Original Screenplay.

"Costume Design" would seem to be an early indicator to me: if it goes to "Dreamgirls" or "Queen", that film could have a surge going (to use a word with currency). Otherwise, "Curse of the Golden Flower" would mean a broad distribution of awards, as I've suggested here.

I see 2006 being, like 1999, basically a writer's year. A fairly weak one for major releases, but some interesting plot twisting going on.