Simple Confederation Formula for Iraq

I am a big fan of confederation as an approach to a permanent, potentially democratic, solution to some of the world's complex nationalism problems--I recommend it specifically with regard to Greater China (PRC, Tibet, Manchuria, Taiwan, Hong Kong) and Palestine (not geographically contiguous regions but culturally- and religiously-defined community "islands" co-existing within the state formed from the current borders of Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank).

Everyone is freaking out about the complexity of Iraq and the political settlement required before any kind of secure regime can take hold. A lot of the trouble seems to be about division of the oil, naturally, so the solution should apply both to the parliament and to the net revenues from oil and gas production.

My proposal would be to make Iraq into four federated regions, each with considerable autonomy to make laws along the lines of our federal states. This differs from Biden's proposal, essentially to break Iraq into three countries, by one unit--Baghdad. The formula is: 50% to Shia provinces of the South (readily identifiable), and each of the other three regions getting 16 2/3%: Iraqi Kurdistan, Baghdad, and the Sunni-dominated provinces other than Baghdad.

I believe these correspond pretty well to the population distibution (they should be adjusted slightly to correspond to it as well as possible) with the exception of a disproportionate weight to Baghdad. This is appropriate for that key metropolitan area, which would allow the central government facilities there to get funded properly without being suspected of stealing from the other regions.

As in the current constitution, a 2/3 majority would be needed to govern, and in today's world that would still probably be primarily a Shia-Kurd coalition. As Shiite politics develop and Shia nationalism recedes (inevitable once some stability develops), this region's influences could divide around other issues and form alliances with factions of the other regions (such as Baghdad's inevitably fractured political forces).

Once this formula was announced, the focus in security efforts would be to make plans to pacify Baghdad's neighborhoods and ensure suppression of Al Qaeda in the Sunni areas; then they could govern themselves and we could get ourselves gone. As it stands, we can surge or whatever but we have no clue what we are producing there, and neither do they.

Any questions?