I’ve just gotten off the “move-on.org” forum, wading through dozens of pro- and anti-Lieberman posts on the supposed topic of “What are the most important goals for move-on to pursue over the next four years.” That and dozens more of pro- and anti-Israel postings (mostly the latter). Move-on’s forum has a big problem, that the forum’s structure encourages people to talk past each other and pay no attention to previous postings, resulting in tens of thousands of postings that hardly anyone sees, but that is beside the point.
The point is that move-on, and the entire political focus of the moment, is missing the big picture when it comes to this election. It may be important to take Lieberman out, it may be important that Lamont would be a better senator, but it is not nearly the most important election in 2006.
The key to the Republican power structure supporting TBMR (the Tyranny of Bushite Misrule) is that party’s control of both houses of Congress. This has prevented any real consideration of the Iraq war, of Bushite abuses of power, of the continued defenceless status of the electoral system to abuse, the continuation of the anti-democratic Electoral College, the continued ignoring of global warming, the environment, the unbalanced tax system, etc.
The Connecticut Senate race is one of those that has virtually no bearing on the Republican control of Congress. There is, at most, about a 10% chance that the Democratic seat in Connecticut (currently rated as “safe Democratic” by Congressional Quarterly) could escape the Democratic caucus in the next Congress (the 50% chance Lieberman could win as an independent, times the 20% chance that the race will be so ugly that Joe will decline to join the Democratic caucus).
I disagree also with the notion that Karl Rove loves this race: his Republican candidate has 0% chance of winning a seat. If there were any chance, that would be important; however, all reasonable observers agree that either Lamont or Lieberman would still win the race, even if Lieberman goes through with the race as an independent and thus cuts into Lamont’s vote.
If Rove really thinks that this race will give him the opportunity to tag the national Democrats as extremists, he’s wrong. But I don’t think he will make that mistake. Both the RNC and the DNC should hold their funds out of this race and focus on those where there is a real competition between a Republican and a Democrat. And I think both parties are smart enough to see this. This race, and the attention given to it, are a smokescreen.
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On move-on's forum, I saw this one:
293. Demand Senators pledge to exclude Lieberman from assignments
The only power of the Democratic Party is its volunteers. If candidates are elected without any political party support, particularly after running as both a Democrat and when losing as an independent, most people will no longer volunteer to work on campaigns or distribute literature. Candidates will become more and more owned by special interests and rich contributors.
Lieberman is a poor loser in the Connecticut Primary with apparently only ancient party loyalty, and we should seek to get pledges from all currently running Democratic U. S. Senate candidates to exclude Lieberman if he is elected from all Democratic Party committee assignment seats even at the cost of a Democratic Senate Majority.
This lower status for Connecticut will help undermine Liberman's chances as an independent.
- Walter L. Johnson, Retired Management Analyst (August 08, 2006; Vancouver, WA)
This is exactly what we should not do, unless we are prepared to break those pledges if we need Lieberman's vote to make a majority in the Senate.
I see that Congressional Quarterly has moved the seat, in the wake of Lamont's primary win and Lieberman's filing as an Independent, from "safe Democratic" to "leans Democratic". That seems correct.
The change was in the middle of a bunch of changes, especially in House races, from "safe Republican" to "leans Republican". They are noticing that the anti-Bushite wind continues to blow, and they don't want to be looking stupid and have a bunch of seats they have labeled "safe Republican" go the other way.
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