Mid-Monthly 1:6

"Do you prefer your GWOT Cold?" the Bushite hawked.

Out came the Cold Loogie of Lebanon. But we expectorated that.

The 3-way (so far) battles between Israel, on the one hand, and Hamas and Hezbollah, on the other, have revealed themselves to be a big set-up for US-Iran to play itself out by other means. Israel had been planning for the day they could take on Hezbollah anew for a long time, but they needed and got a good casus belli. Like Hezbollah, Hamas' military wing is committing self-immolation at Iran's bequest (via Syria).

All of it suggests that, in this post-Iraq debacle phase, both the US and its opponents have decided it better to go back to the old Cold War methods of getting fools to do their dirty work. This time, it's Israel's center-left government doing it: for US, and to prove that they are suitable followers for the Sharon "legacy". There have also been real hits on Israel since hostilities started; as a result Israel's population backs the "you started it, but we'll finish it" bully-boy line with unanimity. The Bushite "we'll stop it--after we've decided the bad guys have been smacked around enough" line is also just too easy.

It's truly pathetic.

Update--July 27, 2006: My longtime friend Norman Goldman, a frequent guest host on radio's Ed Schulz Show, and I had the following email dialogue after a stormy show in which he was pilloried for daring to defend Israel's right to self-defense (taken out of context; permission being sought to reprint):

--- norman goldman <normangoldman@redwire.net> wrote:
--------------------------------- i agree with what you say...so, given all that, where does that leaveus????


Me: Appalled by the Tyranny of Bushite Misrule (TBMR). As usual.

I think the Israelis have had their go, and to their dismay the Hezbollah are not the pushovers in Lebanon that the PLO army once was. It would be in their interest to make a deal, without waiting for it to be brokered by Bolton and Rice (the successors to that first-term comedy duo, Cheney and Powell). Heck, there's only 30 months. Our negotiators: The Flaming Looney and The Straightpersonofcolor.

A deal. That's all that Hezbollah/Hamas/Syria/Iran were looking for: an exchange of prisoners. That is classic Islamic tactics, but, you know, "they didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition" (The Israelis, particularly the Sephardim, they know about that one.) They got scorched, too. They should all agree to come to the table and say, "F U" to the Bushite, and to Ahmadinejad, too. Germany and Japan will be glad to mediate. I have every confidence in Israel's ability to make a good deal, on their own, and particularly with their own intelligence.

Return of the Bolton Diversion

The Senate having wasted its time and the public money on debates about gay marriage, flag-burning (I wonder what the Supreme Court would do if a constitutional amendment were passed prohibiting stupid constitutional amendments), and pretending to take up immigration and stem-cell research (the debates on the Senate floor for these two were edifying but useless), it must have run out of things to do. So, it's time to bring back debate over John Bolton to be the U.N. Ambassador.

Bolton has had his dry run through a recess appointment and has thoroughly established himself as a boat-rocking Bushite, using unilateralist tactics to achieve very little, though his aims are themselves totally wrong-headed. So, sounds like a good idea to confirm him.

That was Sen. Voinovich's conclusion--probably Rove sent him a political memo showing that some U.N. bashing was just what this year's campaign strategy needed.

Italy's World Cup Win

I've got to say something about it. OK, Luca Toni wasn't the big hero, so my longshot call wasn't quite on the mark. Strange, though, how Zidane's head-butt turned out to be the big news--and we still don't know what Materazzi called his sister!

One could argue that there was some meat on that bone--that Zidane's absence from the shootout (which followed his blow-up by only about 10 minutes) was critical to the outcome. I would argue that the key to the outcome was Italy's aggressive and successful response to France's early penalty kick (by Zidane, on a dubious call, but the call against Italy had been earned by several clamorous fouls in the moments before). Unfortunately, they decided to shut things down afterwards, and the jogo was not so bonito.

Candidate Reviews: Bayh, Bayh-den--
Unfortunately, I missed the C-SPAN bits, and I doubt they would have had sufficient viewer interest to merit showing again. I will instead try to guess what I think, and then second-guess myself through comments later.

Evan Bayh: The people of Indiana knew what they were getting when they first elected him. He's not quite a carbon copy of his dad, Birch, who represented the state for a generation, but he's a reasonable facsimile, flavored a bit with old-time Reaganite law 'n order. Apparently they haven't been disappointed, and Evan has managed miraculously to stay around in what is without doubt the most conservative state of the North Central region. He stands for sensible positions; projects a tough image; certainly his centrist credentials are in order.

This is promising; certainly a promising area for Democrats to make up ground. I don't think just having him on the ticket as VP would be potent enough to win many Mideastern states, though, unless he made a really good fit with the nominee. (And, at that, his folksy image might balance out HRC's imperious aura and make the ticket more appealing to Joe Sixpack NASCAR's out there. Which they would definitely need if Her Royal Clinton gets it.) On the other hand, his making Indiana competitive again, and just picking up a few votes in neighboring states like Michigan and Ohio would definitely be a worthwhile contribution from a running mate.

However, I don't see him having nearly enough of a national persona, or experience with foreign policy/national security, to make the cut to the final 2-3 contenders for the nomination himself (assuming it won't be just one contender after New Hampshire, an assumption I'm not ready to make at this point). Not having seen his speech, I don't even know what his position on Iraq is at this point (I'm thinking it's close to my "consensus Democratic position"--see elsewhere on this blog).

So, I see him as serious VP timber; a Quayle with greater intellect. The question is whether he can raise his profile successfully without embarrassing himself with bad primary results, and I don't know any strategy in the early primaries which will do that for him (particularly if Tom Vilsack runs and gets into the middle of the Iowa caucuses, taking away his turf).

Joe Biden: Here we are dealing with a known quantity, particularly from a national party perspective. As Senior Minority Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden is now de facto the leading spokesman for the party on foreign policy. His role is much like the one Jesse Helms used to have during the Clinton administration, but he's behaved much more responsibly in it than Helms. Unfortunately, accomplishing much less in terms of disruption.

The good news is that he has been around (an incredibly long time for his age), knows his stuff, and will not crib excessively from British Labour leaders' speeches this time around (granted, their oratory consistently blows ours away). He does have a tendency toward pomposity, so the danger will be if his ego is pricked at the wrong time, when he's tired after a trying day on the campaign trail or something. A "Wee-haw" Deaniac moment is hardly impossible. I do think he can handle the Tim Russerts of the world, though.

His domestic policies are pretty straightforward post-modern liberal Democrat, with all the ambiguity that implies. Like Bayh, he's supported capital punishment and strong law enforcement, but has a good record on race relations. While he has pursued the interests of the big banks pretty consistently, it's understandable in his case, as they are in a real sense his constituents (Bank holding company HQ's are pretty much all Wilmington, Delaware has going for it). He also supports things like raising the minimum wage and has a reasonable record on the environment.

The bad news is that he's from a small state, has a narrow slice of a national following, and is a Senator. On Iraq, he came to the anti-Bushite party too late for the crowd looking for a left-wing alternative to HRC. Russ Feingold would seem to have the edge for that segment--which I think is substantial and will end up with a candidate in any finalist group that has more than one participant. He could be a Dick Cheney-type VP with a heavy diplomatic portfolio, or Secretary of State, for a Democratic President of any flavor with relatively little international experience (like Mark Warner, or even Russ Feingold). Still seems pretty long of a shot. I think Biden is tremendously bored with being a big fish in the minority party in the Senate, though, so I think this is his last shot.

The good news for Evan Bayh is that he is not in that situation.

Housekeeping: Had a big birthday and a vacation. Just getting things back in order on the domestic front. So much for issues 1:4, 1:5.

Next issue:
Common Sense Consumerism: Shower vs. Bath
Excessively Specific 2006 Election Results Forecast