Somewhat Rushed Sports Update

 What's the hurry?  I want to get this out before the most critical game in the NBA playoffs is completed.   Basically, they have gone along the lines that I forecast up until now:  the Celtics seemed cruising over a Mavericks team that was the survivor of the chaotic Western Conference playoffs (chaotic, once Minnesota defeated Denver in the Conference semis).  

The Celtics, up 3-0 on the road, got crushed by the Mavericks in Game 4.  Nothing to unusual in itself, one team had much more motivation, there's a lot of it going around (see NHL Stanley Cup Finals).  But something about the way the Mavericks won suggested they were finding the form, based around extraordinary performances from both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving every night, that got them through the West.  

The Celtics could scratch that idea, with one big effort at home tonight.  This is their chance--they have been so close before.  If they fail to take the chance, Game 6 back in Dallas looks shaky, and the Celtics would be then under huge "don't choke" pressure in Game 7.  I have heard that the Celtics are throwing their strategic reserve into the fray--Kristaps Porzingis, whose legs are shaky, but whose shot gives them a fourth option that is nearly unstoppable. 

Not too many of these games remain close throughout.  The classic Celtics clincher back in the day was a run in the late 3rd-quarter to give them a commanding lead.  I will be looking for that, a sign that this time's team is worthy to raise its championship banner next to all those old ones.

The Euros 

If I disrespected the quality of the UEFA Championships (European national soccer teams) before, I should retract it.  The competition brings together all the top teams except Brazil and Argentina (for once, no major omissions in the lineup), with most top players present, and it looks quite open.  France and England are the two betting favorites, though their history in the Euros is not all that great.  Both got 1-0 wins in their first game of group play that were not so overwhelming (though their scoring held down by  game challengers). Spain, Italy, and Germany all showed they are ready in their games, and Portugal (the one major team that has not yet taken the field) is supposed to have the highest-rated squad of all. I'm expecting a high-quality set of games from the quarterfinals on, with the occasional surprise showing the depth of the field. 

Such was the case in today's upset of #2-seeded Belgium by Slovakia.  It was both legitimate and fortunate:  Belgium's Romelu Lukaku, one of the top center forwards of this century, netted twice, seeming to break his longstanding misfortunes in the big games for Belgium, but both were waved off after detailed replay analysis.  Whether Belgium can qualify for the next round might provide a little interest, but what will take over now is analyzing the varieties of how outcomes might affect which teams will face off in the round of 16.  

Baseball

My preseason analysis does not look so good at this point.  The most egregious error was omitting the Mariners, who have opened a good-sized lead over the division's two obvious playoff contenders, the Astros and the defending champion Rangers, both of which are going to have to improve even to make it to wild-card spots.  The second-worst error was disrespecting the Orioles, who have impressed all.   

The cutoff point for the AL third wild-card spot looks like it will be a few games over .500, something like 85 wins.  Right now, there's a clear division between those in and out at that percentage win rate, though there's several teams just below .500, each of which will have to decide whether to go for it at the trade deadline, coming soon.   In the NL, the cutoff will be right at or just below .500, I think, with a whole bunch of teams contending for two spots.  The Reds are among them; they still haven't made the move to acquire a veteran starter of quality, which they will need to do if they want to make it in, and compete within, this year's playoffs.  

As always, I live in fear of another Yankees-Dodgers World Series, this year much more likely than it has been for a decade or more. 

 

 

A Few Outlandish Proposals to Solve Our Problems

 Some ideas I haven't heard suggested lately, and I would like to know why.  Please advise. 

 For Charity's Sake

Contributions to approved charitable and religious institutions should be deductible for those who use the standard deduction, in other words a deduction on top of the regular one.  It is clear that one of the effects of the increased deduction from the Tax Scam Act from the Trump Administration was to reduce smaller-scale contributions from the masses--the big ticket guys had their deduction protected.  Non-profits are suffering as a result.  Smaller contributions are what broaden the public support for these organizations in their missions.  The reduced response rate for mail and email that has resulted make the economics much more difficult.   Ask any financial officer for a nonprofit, and they will tell you.

Yes, there is a big Federal budget deficit, which makes it difficult politically to propose something which reduces government revenue.  It's not that big a difference, though; I would estimate at most about $100 billion a year, which could be covered with an increase in the tax rate for billionaires (which is itself not as huge an effect as one might imagine).   This is a change which Republicans, who have always promoted the non-governmental sources of aid for the needy (at least pre-Trump), could get behind, as well.

The '68 Thang

I will admit there are some clear parallels between the chaotic 1968 electoral environment and this year's one.  In particular, the rebellion among the youth to what they perceive is a lack of a viable choice in the two party nominees, the antiwar movement, a Cold War-type foreign affairs situation with Russia threatening Europe, a Democratic incumbent who fails to convince and the Republican challenger who is well-known, untrustworthy, but politically potent.  

We must learn from history and elect Humphrey, not Nixon, this time.

 Do not let the tragedy of '68 become the farce of '24.

For the Intractable Middle East

As we bring aid to Gazans with this new proposed port, we should take some people out who want to go to live in the West Bank.  I read of a perfectly nice Palestinian settlement that needs people (Rawabi)  Of course, the Gazan evacuees need to be vetted (Israeli checkpoints) and have a clean record.  Families preferred. 

Israel should accept any offer of a ceasefire of indeterminate length, not just the short time needed to exchange hostages, furnish emergency aid, etc. Any such deal which gets all the hostages out is a win.   Israel would maintain Gaza locked-down (hopefully helping with the above evacuation, but that would need a new government), and breaking the truce would be a fool's mission:  Hamas would do it anyway, but probably not right away.  Israel could use the time to get a new plan; right now they haven't a clue what to do.  Maybe have an election?

The ME/NE Option

Winner-take-all Is the Enemy....

It's unfortunate no one in New Mexico listened to my suggestion that we consider going the Maine/Nebraska route in '24.  Each of those states has one district very much out of line with the state as a whole.  To preserve domestic harmony (as relates the Presidential election in far-off Washington, D.C.), they agree to allocate their Electoral vote winners at a Congressional district level (with two for the statewide at-large winner), even though there's a fair likelihood that that district will go against the state as a whole, losing a vote for the winning side.  

Now, in Nebraska, there is a move to cancel that law, and to vote all the state's electors as one.  The first attempt failed, but there is a second afoot.  Maine has countered with a law proposed to counter whatever Nebraska does.   

What I argued was that there was an opportunity for New Mexico, equally far from the Federal overreach in our ranch, to grab some of that attention.  In particular, it would be the 2nd Congressional District's time to shine. It's inconspicuous, on the border with Mexico but not an area with border fence nor migrant crisis--with a very close vote likely on the Presidential election.  

This change would not be in Biden's favor, as the risk in the one district would be much higher than that of losing five Electoral Votes statewide,  so why take the risk? The answers are two:  one is to increase democratic participation, which would gain the area more attention to its needs; the second is to increase  turnout in that district, one of the most at-risk Democratic holds in all House races in the country.  

The counter, of course, is the nightmare scenario where the change comes in NM and goes badly, or instead, if NE-2 doesn't come through for Biden, and he ends up at 269.  Which is a loss.   

There are such scenarios, but they are no more probable than a host of other numeric outcomes, once we consider that the Electoral College vote is a throw of crooked dice. It's  a random walk from the starting point of 303-235 that is the 2024 (post-Census reallocation) version of the 306-232 of 2020 and the same electoral result of 2016. Prove to me that any predicted outcome is more likely than that. 

Home Health Care - I still think President Biden should announce the establishment of a Federal showcase educational institution to train home health care workers. 

 In Florida.  It's not too late--there is something to gain, as the repulsive Rick Scott is an attractive target for the diverse opposition, and maybe they finally have a decent candidate to oppose him.  Florida is one of the best Democratic states to target an upset, after North Carolina. 

Immigration: Finally, the long-term solution to the immigration/Southern border migrant challenge:  move the critical decision point away from the border, into Mexico.  The US pays for land, building housing for temporary residence of applicants, does a major airport upgrade and employs both locals and US Border people to screen people who arrive at a safe point, under controlled conditions.  Then, if their application is acceptable, they stay while their transfer is finalized (which is done through air traffic).   If they are turned away, train fare to the coast of their choice to be deported. 

This is a big-ticket deal to be negotiated with Mexico, but as allies and friends.  I think we have the best chance for that, ever, with President Sheinbaum.  It does seem expensive, but think of how much we spend today--this is a chance to displace that expense and thereby reduce it and remove it as a domestic political problem.  We need to see it as our local version of a global problem with increasing peril for our stability Like climate change, and it is closely related. 

I'm thinking somewhere like Monterrey, but I don't know.   Correct me and propose some other location. 

Social Security:  Just don't cap the contribution at any income level.  That cap makes today's tax regressive. 

 That fixes it, but I do have a cockamamey idea that could help:  Those who have sufficient resources can make an irrevocable* decision to give up their payments, in return for which they get land.  The land would be from Federal land, like BLM, or forest, and they would receive to a measure commensurate with their contribution history.  There would be various covenants on the land thus received, that would survive the recipient to their heirs and be binding on those who purchase it.   The recipient gets, effectively, a title and a badge.  And any net revenue from the management of the land.   

What's the point?  Broaden ownership of protected land getting better management, save payout expense on people who don't need it. A legacy, like the old stakeholders.  An example of "less government" that the Democrats could support.  

*  Of course, like an airline flight, you can make changes, but there's a penalty.  I actually think Medicare and Social Security work extremely well.