Sports Commentary

Big Game Hunt
This year's World Series has been an enjoyable one for this fan, who has no particular emotional attachment except admiration for the talent on both teams (Washington Nationals for the NL; Houston Astros for the AL).  This year's outcome will either be the final realization of the Nats' potential, or confirmation of the 'Stros' dominance.  Quality, and low stress.

Today (Sun., Oct. 27) was supposed to be the climax:  a Game 5 matchup between two ace pitchers.  The Series being tied 2-2, it now becomes a Best-of-3 (1 in Washington, then one or two at Houston).  Max Scherzer for the Nationals and Gerrit Cole for the Astros are each candidates for the Cy Young Award (for best pitcher) in their respective leagues.  We expected a brilliant pitching duel.

Instead, hours before the game is to begin, Scherzer has been scratched.   Back problems, despite a day of treatment, he cannot raise his shoulder to pitch.  (No, we weren't notified of that!)

Now, the view of the game shifts, from one that was about even (Houston had the momentum, Washington the home field) to one hugely favoring the visitors, who will have Cole going.  Also, the view of the final outcome of the Series.  If Houston wins, the Nationals will have to defeat #2 Astros' ace, future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander, then win another, on the road.  The only real hope is for someone in the Nats' bullpen to step up and shut down the Astros long enough for some offense to emerge for Washington at some point.   If somehow Washington wins this Game 5, the Big Game will become Game 6, and then Game 7, if there is one, so in the interest of prolonging the entertainment, I have rooting interest for the underdog tonight.

The other day, one of my friends who doesn't follow baseball much asked me whether it was still true that good pitching shuts down good hitting.  The World Series is an excellent place to observe that it is (still true).  Major league baseball in the past 10 years or so (the "Moneyball Era") has changed in several ways.  Pitching standards have risen, in terms of the velocity (absolute, and variability) and spin expected ("good stuff").  Control of that kind of 'stuff' produces strikeouts or weak grounders (or, with good hitters, a lot of foul balls).  Mistakes, though, are hit out of the park with much greater frequency.

So, scoring is sort of a random event based on the frequency with which pitchers miss their marks.  The best ones have both the best control of their pitches and a shared understanding (with their catcher) of the best marks to hit for each hitter. 

The Nationals appear to be going with an emergency starter, Joe Ross, who has great stuff but erratic control.  He will have a very short leash in this high-leverage game, but if he shows that he is, it will be on Manager Dave Martinez not to ruin his odds by pulling an effective pitcher for one that has a certain likelihood of not hitting his marks. 

This tendency of managers, accelerated in the postseason, along with the inability of too many hitters to "go the other way" (hit the ball away from the angle they face, instead of around that angle--"pulling it"), are the two greatest laments I have in this era in which incredible talent has been emerging.  There are almost too many to name--multi-faceted young hitters with power, pitchers with 100+ mph fastballs and great spin control--but I will mention three stars in this Series:  the Astros 3-4 hitters Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, and the Nationals' 20-year-old star outfielder, Juan Soto.  (5 pm MDT)

Hoops
The 2019-20 NBA season promises to be one of the most interesting of recent years, both in the regular season and in the playoffs.  The reason is the amount of uncertainty about outcomes, and the lack of an obvious single dominant team. 

Last season's surprise winner, the Toronto Raptors, will be diminished by the economic migration of their best player, Kawhi Leonard, to the well-heeled (but perennially disappointing) Los Angeles Clippers.   The Clippers will also have the player who was #3 in MVP voting last year, Paul George, who is moving from Oklahoma City after one of the most dramatic exhibitions of the power that individual star players have in the NBA.   Another one was the movement of star power forward Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers, basically at the request of their superstar, LeBron James (acquired last season).

Those two teams stand out and are the co-favorites, but there are many other contenders.  The Milwaukee Bucks had the best record last year and return intact.  The Golden State Warriors, the dominant team of the last few years, are reduced this year by the departure of Kevin Durant (who went to Brooklyn, but is out for the year) and an injury that will keep Klay Thompson out for the year.  The high-powered offense of the Houston Rockets, a serious contender in the Western Conference in recent years, got an additional charge of energy by adding Russell Westbrook (though Chris Paul moved to Oklahoma City).  The Boston Celtics and the Raptors are still formidable.

The Lakers and the Clippers met on opening night, and the Clippers, without George, were much the better team.  I think this just means that they found good chemistry from their new combination faster than other teams did; however, the season is long--very long--and there is plenty of time for all these other teams to emerge fully.

I have to comment on US men's college hoops, one of the most inexplicable, beautiful artifacts of a crazy society.  This unpaid (?!) semipro seasoning factory (for the NBA wannabes, from many countries) combines with an extremely diverse variety of schools competing for a place in the Big Dance (the NCAA tournament, something done to perfection every year) to produce March Madness.

The real business is the training of NBA potential; the pro and collegiate organizations have agreed on the necessity of one year of seasoning between high school and the pros, something which is more likely to be reduced than added to.

I admit to being a fan of the men's game, with several teams I follow, but one (U. of Kentucky) in particular.  The Wildcats have one of the longest and most successful traditions in the sport.  Under John Calipari, they have pioneered an adaptation to that rule, each year recruiting an oversized selection of the top talent coming out of high school.  The players come because they know they will get top competition and training in the fundamentals, preparing them well and showcasing them well for the NBA draft--preferably, after a single year--and future gainful employment.  As a result, the league is dotted with more than a dozen UK players, including several stars.  This year's crop of individual stars is no exception; they are rated among the top teams, but success will depend on finding well-timed effectiveness as a team.

International Football*
We can contrast the status of the NBA with the English Premier League in soccer, which has a stable championship scenario.  Manchester City won a second consecutive title in an impressive race with Liverpool that went down to the last game, and they remain the co-favorites this year.  There's plenty of suspense about how that will finish; unlike last year, Liverpool has taken the early lead.  The Reds emerged from the ranks of competitors into that of champions with a late-season surge which included an impressive run to win the Champions Cup.  They have come out strongly this fall, as well.

The team I root for, Chelsea, is at the head of a group of teams which, realistically, are seeking third place.  If not third, then fourth.  The Blues have a coach that they can love, Frank Lampard, a standout member of their all-time all-star team.  He was a heady player, and I have high hopes that he can be a successful--and stable--head coach.  The team has rallied with homegrown young talent when slapped with a ban which prevented their usual frenetic participation in the trading markets.  The most notable loss this season is the incomparable Eden Hazard; the notable addition, Christian Pulisic.  Pulisic is the best US player since the young Landon Donovan, a quick-footed middie who sees the field well and can score with the best.  Much like Lampard, but quick-footed!

*In the US' version which it calls "football", it's seems like the usual scenario:  Alabama, and the Patriots.  Tell me it's not so.